CATTERICK - AUGUST 30
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £29.80 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Cool Strike) & 4 (The Auld Hoose)
Leg 2 (2.20): 5 (Nuns Walk), 4 (La Sioux), 3 (Fairy Lights) & 2 (Eponina)
Leg 3 (2.50): 1 (Bulas Belle), 3 (Italian Riviera) & 2 (Ingleby Hollow)
Leg 4 (3.20): 2 (Magical Effect), 3 (Shouranour) & 8 (Tadaawol)
Leg 5 (3.50): 1 (Salvatore Fury), 3 (Searanger) & 6 (Melaniemillie)
Leg 6 (4.20): 4 (State Residence) & 1 (Willbeme)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Any trainer who can record a 28.2% strike via 71 juvenile runners during a five year period is worth his weight in gold in the two-year-old sector, with Richard Fahey able to boast that claim at Catterick in recent times. Richard saddles THE AULD HOOSE on this occasion, though the Zebedee colt will probably have to play second fiddle (at best) with COOL SPIRIT having been declared to run by James Given after a couple of half decent efforts in (seemingly) better company than the Swiss Spirit colt faces here. That said, anyone backing the 2/5 favourite might need his/her ‘bumps felt’ as my old nan used to say because until a horse has actually won, I would never entertain an odds on quote, let alone one as short as this. 2/5 represents a 71.4% probability factor in percentage terms so unless you believe that the February foal has at least a 72% chance of scoring, you should leave well alone. That’s the numbers dealt with as such, the rest is up to you.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 7/5 favourite duly obliged.
2.20: Before jumping on the Roger Varian bandwagon, it’s worth noting that the trainer has ‘only’ won with one of his five three-year-old runners at Catterick during the last five years. That is not a slur on Roger’s ability as regular readers will testify, it’s just that we need to explore the avenues open to us before we simply wade in believing a Newmarket visitor simply has to turn up to snare the swag. Truth is that this race has dissolved to down to a win only affair and with nothing much between the quartet from my viewpoint, the answer (from a Placepot perspective at least) is to simply include all four runners before retiring to the bar, in the hope that the horse with the least number of Placepot units prevails.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/9 market leader obliged, giving punters a near 5/2 double on the opening two races on the card. How will the relevant favourites run this time around, if a clear market leader can be found in this contest?
2.50: Nine of the 12 winners have been burdened with a minimum weight of 9-7 whereby BULAS BELLE and ITALIAIN RIVIERA should claim a toteplacepot position or two between them, the duo being listed in marginal order of preference. This is not a race demanding too much of our time because it rather resembles a graded greyhound event whereby sometimes it seems the outcome is defined by whose turn is it to win on this occasion. David O’Meara’s horse are running better now whereby for the first time this season, I would also offer a tentative chance to INGLEBY HOLLOW.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won since the inaugural running back in 2005 during which time, a top priced winner of 6/1 having emerged. Seven of the thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the third contest:
2/6—Bulas Belle (good to soft & soft)
1/2—Italian Riviera (soft)
3.20: The ‘make up’ of this event has changed (see favourite factor below) though the inclusion of three course winners under much softer conditions still makes the contest difficult to call. MAGICAL EFFECT is the horse for money this morning, though bits and pieces of win and place support for SHOURANOUR is emerging at the time of writing, presumably because one of his six victories to date was (at least) gained on fast ground, albeit the other five successes were registered of good to soft/soft going. TADAAWOL has also run well enough under today’s projected conditions, despite the fact that his course and distance success three week ago was recorded on soft going.
Favourite factor: Punters had gone through a lean period when this race was confined to three-year-olds in the past whereby the inclusion of older contenders (creating a ‘new race’ as such) might offer investors a better chance of success. We shall see.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
2/3—Shouranour (2 x soft)
1/1—Jacquard (good to firm)
1/2—Johnny Cavagin (soft)
2/3—Bahamian Bird (2 x good to firm)
3.50: I made the point on my Twitter page yesterday that Ladbrokes were out on a limb about a horse which although beaten yesterday was backed down at all rates making the relevant wager ‘ a bet to nothing’ via the exchanges. The same scenario is surely in place here with the magic sign chalking up odds of 11/2 about SALVATORE FURY from the top of the handicap. As short as 7/2 in a place, I expect the SP to be 4/1 (thereabouts) unless non-runners ruin the market of course (UPDATE: SF is on the drift at 8.30 this morning). Either way, supporters of the Keith Dalglish raider will surely get a decent run for their investments, possibly having most to fear from the likes of SEARANGER and MEANIEMILLIE.
Favourite factor: Both favourites have missed out on Placepot positions thus far.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Salvatore Fury (good)
1/6—Indian Pursuit (soft)
2/5—Seamanger (2 x good to firm)
4.20: The second heat of the previous contest rests between STATE RESIEDENCE and WILLBEME from my perspective, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing. There has been plenty of overnight money for the first named David O’Meara representative whilst WILLBEME has slipped down to a favourable mark which three pound claimer Clifford Lee extends.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card, where the same stats apply.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/5—Spirit Of Zebedee (good to firm)
2/14—Bold Spirit (good to soft & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Catterick card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—David O’Meara (3/24 – loss of 15 points)
4—Ruth Carr (8/28 +14)
4—Scott Dixon (1/19 – loss of 15/1)
4—Tim Easterby (3/23 – loss of 3 points)
3—Tony Coyle (0/3)
3—Richard Fahey (5/32 – loss of 2 points)
3—Mark Johnston (7/21 +11)
3—John Quinn (2/30 – loss of 24 points)
2—Robert Cowell (0/4)
2—Roger Fell (2/12 – slight loss)
2—Rebecca Menzies (3/18 +15)
2—Paul Midgley (1/10 – loss of 7 points)
2—Kevin Ryan (4/14 +11)
2—Brain Smart (0/5)
2—Ronald Thompson (No previous runners)
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £360.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Kempton: £426.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield: £30.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Worcester: £30.40 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced