CATTERICK - DECEMBER 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £43.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Catterick:
Leg 1 (12.20): 6 (Episode), 8 (Chasma), 1 (Danceintothelight) & 13 (Dark And Dangerous)
Leg 2 (12.50): 4 (Nietzsche) & 1 (Cape Of Glory)
Leg 3 (1.20): 6 (Vintage Clouds), 7 (Work In Progress) & 3 (Gully’s Edge)
Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Ckalco Des Loges) & 1 (Good Tradition)
Leg 5 (2.20): 4 (Onwiththeparty), 2 (Politbureau) & 12 (Crinkle Crags)
Leg 6 (2.50): 2 (Witness) & 3 (Discoverie)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.20: All 10 winners have carried 11-4 or less to victory during the last decade with eight-year-olds having won three of the last four contests. Course winner DARK AND DANGEROUS in the clear pick of the pair of vintage representatives, whilst EPISODE and CHASMA are also short listed. Last year’s winner DANCEINTOTHELIGHT is weighted out of this renewal if you take the trend seriously, albeit by only a pound if the claimer calls on the full advantage.
Favourite factor: Seven renewals had slipped by since the last successful favourite was registered before last year the 11/8 market leader prevailed. Four of the last seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Donna’s Pledge (soft)
1/5—Bollin Line (good to soft)
1/4—Dark And Dangerous (good to soft)
12.50: Brian Ellison has sent out five of his last twelve runners to winning effect, results which have produced five points of level stake profits. Brian saddles his dual runner up NIETZSCHE with definite claims of going one better in this grade/company. Musselburgh winner CAPE OF GLORY is the obvious danger, especially as the same type of (good) ground could be in evidence. Keith Dalgleish does well with the few hurdlers he saddles in general terms and this Cape Cross representative could yet be anything judged as a raw three-year-old.
Favourite factor: The two favourites to date have claimed Placepot positions via gold and bronze medal efforts.
1.20: Owner Trevor Hemmings gained his customary victory at Carlisle on Sunday and VINTAGE CLOUDS has a genuine chance of carrying the famous yellow, green and white colours to winning effect for Sue and Harvey Smith. Stable companion Delusionofgrandeur is not without a chance either, though I prefer WORK IN PROGRESS and GULLY’S EDGE as the main dangers to the marginal selection.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 1/4 favourite duly obliged.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals, with GOOD TRADITION arguably being the pick of the six vintage representatives. Connections might have most to fear from the likes of CKALCO DES LOGES in a thoroughly uninteresting contest. The reserve nomination is awarded to AFTER TONIGHT.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 12 winners have scored at a top price of 7/1 during which time, five market leaders obliged. The last 11 favourites have all secured toteplacepot positions, albeit hot favourites at 1/2, 4/6 & 5/6 were turned over from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest:
1/1—After Tonight (good)
2.20: Six-year-olds have won six of the last eight renewals, though only Nicky Richards (Cringle Crags) is live to the ‘edge’ this time around. Nicky has greeted five of his last 13 runners in the area reserved for winners in the unsaddling enclosure, though CRINKLE CRAGS looks set to be sent off at a big price. More logical winners arguably include ONWITHTHEPARTY and POLITBUREAU.
Favourite factor: Five of the 14 marker leaders have finished in the frame in recent years, stats which include three successful favourites, albeit two 5/1 co favourites dead heated in the contest three years ago.
2.50: Nine of the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, whilst eight-year-olds have secured four of the last eight renewals, statistics which include the a 25/1 winner back in 2012, one of only two vintage representatives in the seven strong line up. Taking both sets of trends into account, my duo against the other four contenders are WITNESS and DISCOVERIE.
Favourite factor: Six of the 12 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) via as many renewals during the last 13 years.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal ratio + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Mick Hammond (0/4)
4—Sue Smith (0/3)
4—Mark Walford (0/2)
3—Donald McCain (1/4 – loss of 1 point)
3—Peter Niven (0/2)
2—George Bewley (No runners)
2—Susan Corbett (No runners)
2—Tristram Davison (No runners)
2—Mick Easterby (No runners)
2—Lucinda Egerton (No runners)
2—Joanne Foster (0/1)
2—Warren Greatrex (No runners)
2—Ian Jardine (0/1)
2—Malcolm Jefferson (0/1)
2—Phil Kirby (0/1)
2—John Quinn (No runners)
2—Keith Reveley (No runners)
2—Dan Skelton (1/3 – loss of 1 point)
2—Ken Slack (1/1 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Mike Somersby (No runners)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £73.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wincanton: This is a new meeting