KEMPTON – DECEMBER 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £1,002.50 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Tuesday:
Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Fastnet Blast), 4 (Zabeel Star) & 1 (Solveig’s Song)
Leg 2 (2.40): 6 (Miracle Cure), 8 (Flying Bear) & 2 (Seve)
Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Dancing Breeze) & 8 (Piaffe)
Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (Night Poetry) & 8 (Precious Ramonswe)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Emenem), 1 (African Beat) & 8 (Pobbles)
Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Debonaire David) & 9 (Chough)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four contests between them, with three-year-old FASTNET BLAST expected to figure prominently, possibly alongside four-year-old raiders ZABEEL STAR and dual course and distance winner SOLVEIG’S SONG. If the vintage trend is to go base over apex on this occasion, the potential joker in the pack might prove to be Red Cossack.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites (the last four) have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two successful (9/4 & 7/2) market leaders. All five winners have scored at a top price of 8/1.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
2.40: All six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-5, with just two runners eliminated accordingly, as a jockey claim intervenes as far as the declaration of SEVE is concerned. Tom Dascombe’s four-year-old enters the equation accordingly, joined by MIRACLE GARDEN (2/2 at this venue) and Jeremy Gask’s consistent five-year-old FLYING BEAR. The overnight reserve nomination is NORMAL EQUILIBRIAM.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following six renewals, the gold medallists ranging between 5/1 and 25/1, the average price to date (via percentages) equating to 8/1.
Record of the course winners in the second contest on the card:
3.10: Connections of the newcomers come to the gig not having to fear any of the eight experienced runners in the field, the debutantes listed in order of preference as DANCING BREEZE, PIAFFE and MAYFLAIR. The pick of the other horses could prove to be SNOW SQUAW, though a break of four months from the track is a tad worrying.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished well down the field to date, winners having been returned at 16/1, 6/1 & 7/2.
3.40: Charlie Applebly has pulled a potential plum out of the pie in this second heat of this event, with NIGHT POETRY being Charlie’s first runner this month. November stats of 3/6 support Charlie’s case and the Sea The Stars filly is fancied to go very close at the first time of asking, especially as Martin Lane’s mount is the thick end of three years of age now in real terms, not just because the annual calendar is soon to be turned over. PRECIOUS RAMOTSWE and possibly AWAAYIL are other newcomers to consider.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card.
4.10: Simon Dow has accrued 63 points of level stake profits via a 6/13 ratio of late, with course winner EMENEM representing the yard this time around. Simon has saddled winners at this meeting in the past and his Sir Percy raider is the first name on the team sheet in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager. POBBLES could scrape into frame at a decent price for Roger Charlton who also has his horses running well, with AFRICAN BEAT completing my trio against the remaining 11 contenders.
Favourite factor: The one favourite to have run (the other was withdrawn before a new market could be formed) finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
4.40: Richard Hughes has saddled two of his last 16 runners to winning effect at the time of writing, the only two horses which were returned as favourites. I had not appreciably noticed the recent ‘trend’ before now in all honesty, though support in the ring would add confidence to the selection from the yard in the Placepot finale, namely DEBONAIRE DAVID. The main danger from my viewpoint is CHOUGH who represents Hughie Morrison who has saddled three of his last five runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished nearer last than first behind horses that filled the frame at 9/2, 8/1 & 20/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Marco Botti (49/386 – loss of 144 points)
3—John Butler (9/92 – loss of 54 points)
3—John Gosden (73/340 – loss of 27 points)
3—Richard Hannon (434/360 – loss of 113 points)
3—Richard Hughes (6/65 – loss of 33 points)
3—Mark Johnston (42/368 – loss of 147 points)
3—Michael Madgwick (7/145 – loss of 85 points)
2—David Barron (0/18)
2—Barry Brennan (0/14)
2—John Bridger (12/314 – loss of 162 points)
2—Tony Carroll (53/601 – loss of 214 points)
2—Tom Dascombe (14/119 – loss of 40 points)
2—Harry Dunlop (18/151 – Profit of 52 points)
2—Robert Eddery (6/70 – loss of 47 points)
2—Jeremy Gask (21/226 – loss of 67 points)
2—Jonathan Portman (3/116 – loss of 87 points)
2—Ed Walker (14/129 – loss of 41 points)
+ 52 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
94 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Taunton: £222.20 – 7 runners – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Southwell: 989.00 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced