KEMPTON - DECEMBER 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £200.50 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Charli Parcs), 5 (Master Blueyes) & 3 (Dreamcatcher)
Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Mystic Sky), 2 (Dolores Delightful) & 1 (Morello Royale)
Leg 3 (1.45): 1 (Altior) & 4 (Stephanie Frances)
Leg 4 (2.20): 4 (Special Tiara) & 1 (Sire De Grugy)
Leg 5 (2.55): 7 (New Member), 11 (Drumcliffe) & 4 (Bigmarte)
Leg 6 (3.30): 3 (Out Sam), 4 (Go Conquer) & 7 (More Buck’s)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine winners with the trainer having just one entry at the four day stage, namely DREAMCATCHER, his French import who makes his debut on these shores on Tuesday. This looks a tough ask however in a typically competitive Kempton juvenile hurdle event. Nicky Henderson has long since ruled this second day of the Christmas fixture and it says much about the emerging talents of young trainers in the ranks that Nicky only has two horses engaged on Tuesday, namely Altior later on the card and CHARLI PARCS. Setting the standard here is MASTER BLUEYES who ran well enough at Wetherby at the first time of asking despite making some mistakes. The two month rest since that effort will have served Alan King’s raider well from my viewpoint after a busy season on the level.
Favourite factor: 10 of the last 13 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include seven winners via 12 contests. Market leaders came to the gig on a seven timer last year before the 11/8 favourite was pulled up with something amiss.
1.10: Eight of the ten winners have carried weights of 10-6 or more which goes against the likes of One Big Love and Lost In Lecce. I could (otherwise) have given Harry Fry’s first named raider a chance but adhering to my ‘anorak tendencies’, I’ll nominate five-year-old MYSTIC SKY, DOLORES DELIGHTFUL and ‘course specialist’ MORELLO ROYALE. Five-year-olds have won four of the last seven contests and with the vintage not being represented twelve months ago, the figure is even more impressive than first meets the eye.
Favourite factor: Four of the last ten favourites have scored whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2/3—Morello Royale (good & good to soft)
1.45: Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals and with ALTIOR being one of two vintage representatives in the field, the trend looks set to continue. ALTIOR won the ‘Henry VIII’ at Sandown in decent style given all the hype that followed him into the contest, and these rivals might be hard pushed to get Noel Fehily’s mount off the bridal, especially as this quick circuit suits Nicky raider from what we have witnessed thus far. STEPHANIE FRANCES is expected to occupy the forecast position.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have won, whilst the ill-fated Twist Magic finished down the field eight years ago behind a 16/1 winner when returned as market leader.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
2/2—Altior (good to soft & soft)
2.20: Historical stats make no appearance this year with Nicky Henderson without a runner, whilst five and six-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence. Instead, we have older horses contesting the main race on the card and according to official figures SPECIAL CARGO appears to have things nicely packaged up and tied up with a ribbon. That scenario rarely turns out the way it is meant to however, though there can be no doubting that the Irish raider seems to have a fair bit in hand of SIRE DE GRUGY. That would be the case if not for the fact that Gary Moore’s popular old veteran never goes down with a fight and there is every chance that the ten-year-old will push Noel Fehily’s mount all the way to the line. Sir Valntino was forward enough to the win the Grade 2 Haldon Gold Cup earlier in the season but looks set to struggle over this quicker track according to yours truly.
Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have scored whilst six market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Desert Orchid’:
3/5—Sire De Grugy (Good - Good to soft - soft)
1/1—Special Tiara (soft)
2.55: Four and five-year-olds have shared seven of the nine renewals thus far, with the older raiders leading 4-3 to date. No four-year-olds have been declared this time around (wake up to the stats trainers), whereby five-year-old raiders NEW MEMBER, DRUMCLIFFE and BIGMARTRE form my short list. Dan Skelton has offered the green light to Apsatou which makes for interesting reading, though this heavy ground winner will not have ground conditions in his favour.
Favourite factor: The last seven market leaders have been turned over since the first two favourites obliged.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
1/1—Wait For Me (soft)
1/1—Thunder Sheik (good)
3.30: Ten of the last twelve winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more, statistics which (arguably) eliminate Howlongisafoot this time around. Seven-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals and in those races, with vintage representatives securing six of the nine available Placepot positions. OUT SAM and GO CONQUER are the two horses in the field that possess ticks in both of the trend boxes, with MORE BUCK’S completing my trio against remaining five runners in this interesting ‘dead eight’ finale.
Favourite factor: Only four of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period, stats which include just two clear favourites and one successful (joint) market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/5—Opening Batsman (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued (stats accurate before Monday’s sport was contested at the Sunbury circuit):
5 runners—Dan Skelton (7/51 – loss of 26 points)
3—Harry Fry (10/46 – loss of 3 points)
3—Paul Nicholls (30/144 (loss of 17 points)
2—Tom George (10/56 – Profit of 2 points)
2---Nicky Henderson (56/191 – Profit of 50 points)
2—Philip Hobbs (11/99 – loss of 54 points)
2—Alan King (20/152 – loss of 66 points)
2—Gary Moore (7/81 – loss of 32 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (12/92 – loss of 35 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (8/63 – loss of 25 points)
2—Lucy Wadham (7/31 – Profit of 5 points)
2—Nick Williams (4/19 – Profit of 5 points)
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
46 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
The meetings at Wetherby & Chepstow were abandoned