LEICESTER – FEBRUARY 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £64.20 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.10): 9 (D’nailor), 6 (Brice Canyon) & 11 (Heavenly Promise)
Leg 2 (2.40): 3 (Duelling Banjos), 1 (Belami Des Pictons) & 2 (Zeroshadesofgrey)
Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Rebel Rebellion) & 3 (Penmore Hill)
Leg 4 (3.40): 1 (Drumviredy) & 4 (Powerful Symbol)
Leg 5 (4.10): 7 (Midnight Mustang), 6 (Miss Oscarose) & 1 (High Aspirations)
Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Supreme Danehill) & 6 (The Highlander)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Upwards and onward by informing that eleven of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 11-8 or less and my duo against the field from the relevant sector of the weights are D’NAILOR and HEAVENLY PROMISE. This pair are joined by BRICE CANYON who (potentially) slips into the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap via the relevant jockey claim. Has trainer Giles Smyly been burning the midnight oil to fall upon the same stats as I have produced, or does he simply have plenty of confidence in booking seven pound claimer David Maxwell who has ridden ten winners under the NH code down the years?
Favourite factor: Just four favourites have obliged via the last eighteen renewals, whilst four of the last fourteen gold medallists scored at 33/1-22/1-12/1-10/1.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
2.40: Seven-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals (the vintage was only represented by a 66/1 outsider four years ago) and the pick of this year’s two vintage representatives is DUELLING BANJOS who represents Kim Bailey’s in form yard which boasts a 22% strike rate via ten winners this month.
Ten points of level stake profits have emerged during the period for good measure and likely to be sent off at around the 5/1 mark, DUELLING BANJOS is a sporting bet to beat hot pot BELAMI DES PICTONS in this ‘win only’ event. That said from a Placepot perspective, it’s difficult to leave the projected market leader out of the equation, whilst a similar remark also applies to ZEROSHADESOFGREY whose seven victories have been gained on all types of ground.
Favourite factor: Nine of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include six winners.
3.10: PENMORE HILL returns to defend his crown, though Fred Hutsby’s twelve-year-old raider might not find the ground quite so testing compared to last year. Either way however, the Shernazar should go well from a Placepot viewpoint, albeit REBEL REBELLION should also take plenty of kicking out of the frame. Those of you interested in backing Penmore Hill to win the contest should ignore the trade press quote of 7/2, as 8/1 is available in a few places (plenty of 7/1 on show) at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have secured gold and bronze medals alongside Placepot positions. The relevant winner scored at 11/8, whilst last year’s 3/1 favourite finished third.
Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:
1/1—Penmore Hill (heavy)
1/3—Siro Demur (soft)
3.40: Ten of the last eleven winners have carried eleven stones or more, as have twelve of the fourteen gold medallists in total though that said, all five runners (Fort Smith does not run) qualify via the weight stats which I have left in for my/your records. DRUMVIREDY is a typical Venetia Williams representative who is (seemingly) never happier than when running under soft/heavy conditions and with more rain due to fall on the projected soft ground at Leicester today, I would not be at all surprised of the gap in odds between Venetia’s eight-year-old and POWERFUL SYMBOL shrinks on the lead up to flag fall. That said, Jonjo’s representative gained his one and only victory to date under heavy conditions, whereby this pair should take care of their rivals.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, whilst ‘only’ seven of the fifteen jollies have reached the frame during the study period. That said, eight winners during the last eleven year have scored at odds of 9/2 or less.
4.10: Nine-year-olds have claimed seven of the last fourteen renewals and with HIGH ASPIRATIONS being the lone vintage representative on this occasion, Harry Cobden’s mount is (speculatively) added into the Placepot equation. More logical winners include the recent soft ground winner MIDNIGHT MUSTANG and MISS OSCAROSE, who could figure prominently if reproducing her decent record ‘between the flags’.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have obliged via thirteen contests during the last nineteen years, with outsiders having scored at 80/1-20/1-14/1-14/1 via the last fourteen renewals.
4.40: Alan Hill (SUPREME DANEHILL) saddled the inaugural (11/4) winner last year and there is every chance that Alan could double up here via his consistent nine-year-old representative. THE HIGHLANDER will pose a few problems at the business end of proceedings however, whereby there may not be too much daylight between the pair at the jamstick.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 15/8 favourite claimed a Placepot position by finishing second in a ‘short field’ event. New reader might like to knao that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home ‘qualify’ for each way/Placepot perspectives.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Andrew J Martin (0/1)
2—Zoe Davison (No previous runners this season)
2—James Evans (No previous runners this season)
2—Steve Flook (0/2)
2—Paul Henderson (0/1)
2—Fred Hutsby (No previous runners this season)
2—Ali Strone (0/2)
2—Sam Thomas (0/1)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/7 – loss of 4 points)
2—Venetia Williams (0/7)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
45 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Catterick: £101.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Lingfield: 15.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed