MUSSELBURGH – JANUARY 3
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £533.90 (8 favourites - 1 winner & 8 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (12.30): 9 (Stipulate) & 2 (Desert Point)
Leg 2 (1.00): 2 (Fattsota) & 4 (Green Light)
Leg 3 (1.30): 6 (Proud Gamble), 3 (Golden Investment) & 4 (Rev Up Ruby)
Leg 4 (2.00): 7 (Final Countdown), 12 (Near To Tears), 15 (Rioja Day) & 6 (Whisky Marmalade)
Leg 5 (2.30): 10 (Bracing) & 3 (Shotofwine)
Leg 6 (3.00): 2 (Mix Boy), 4 (Thankyou Very Much). 1 (Fair Loch) & 3 (Oliver’s Gold)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.30: Apologies offered for the late declaration by this particular ‘trainer’ as this was my fault entirely, nothing to do at all with Geegeez. A little bit of housekeeping for starters by informing that 40% of the favourites have won at Musselburgh this season, whilst the five meetings have produced an average Placepot dividend of £686.62. Punters are owed a break in the first two races on the card (different divisions of the same event – see favourite details below) whereby potential investors will be hoping that there is plenty of confidence in the likes of STIPULATE and (possibly) DESERT POINT, though if the rot has well and truly set in, I guess that IDDER could emerge as the joker in the pack. DESERT POINT might only have to negotiate the hurdles adequately to score if he can reproduce placed Listed form from the other code of the sport.
Favourite factor: The four winners of this event have scored at 33/1, 25/1, 13/2 & 4/1 thus far, with just one of the three odds on favourites having reached the frame thus far.
1.00: The bad news (given the four results to date) is that this is the second division of the opening event. Upwards and onwards by informing that five-year-olds have won three of the four contests though with Man Look appearing to be the pick of this year’s trio of representatives (well beating in a tough Newbury event on debut), the ‘trend’ looks vulnerable to say the least, especially with decent types from the flat having been declared to run, namely FATTSOTA and GREEN LIGHT.
Favourite factor: This is the second heat of the opening event on the card whereby the same starts apply. To complete the ‘favourite factor’, three of the four market leaders have finished out with the washing.
1.30: Donald McCain was in (44/1) double winning from at the track on Sunday and GOLDEN INVESTMENT certainly has a chance of continuing the good start to the year on behalf of the yard. That said, three of the last five runners sent out by Rose Dobbin have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (11/4) winning favourite. Rose saddles the possible market leader here in PROUD GAMBLE who is a winner of four steeplechase events, three of them gained on this easy course here in Edinburgh. REV UP RUBY is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: In continuing the poor start for favourite investors at last year’s meeting, the inaugural 4/1 joint market leaders in this event (both saddled by Lucinda Russell) finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/3—Rev Up Ruby (good)
3/7—Proud Gamble (2 x good & soft)
1/6—Shine A Diamond (good)
2.00: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals in which vintage representatives were involved whereby WHISKY MARMALADE could outrun his price, having been given a spin around Newcastle’s A/W track recently. That said, more obvious winners include FINAL COUNTDOWN, NEAR TO TEARS and RIOJA DAY. The first named raider represents Rebecca Menzies who can do little wrong in the training sector right now, with six of her last twenty runners having won, stats which have produced the thick end for forty points of level stake profit. By the by, if I ever put you on the right road to making a decent profit one day, some whisky marmalade would be very much appreciated, as I am down to my last three jars!
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include last year’s successful 85/40 favourite.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
2/15—Claude Carter (good & good to soft)
2.25: BRACING (the only course winner in the field) was my win and place call in the race last year when beaten into second place and with Kit Alexander remaining good value for his seven pound claim, I see no reason to desert the eight-year-old in this grade/company, despite the fact that an additional four pounds will have to be carried this time around. Others of each way/Placepot interest at the time of writing are from my viewpoint include LANDMARQUE and MOSCOW CALLING. That said, the latter named Nicky Richards raider potentially plays second fiddle here to stable companion SHOTOFWINE who impressed when scoring at Market Rasen the last day, a track not dissimilar to this circuit.
Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites (via four renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (even money) winner.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:
3.00: Although this is a disappointing renewal of the Kilmany Cup event in terms of the (win only) four runner field, the race looks nonetheless competitive whereby I will include all four runners in my permutation before retiring to the bar. Such options are a luxury on occasions but with some results in our favour, it would be good to sit back and enjoy the race, hoping that the horse with the fewest number of units prevails. For the record, my marginal listing in order of preference is MIX BOY, THANKYOU VERY MUCH, FAIR LOCH and OLIVER’S GOLD.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have secured toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events at odds of 7/2 - 9/4 - 10/11.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/4—Thankyou Very Much (2 x good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Brian Ellison (9/108 – loss of 64 points)
5—Patrick Holmes (0/17)
5—Lucinda Russell (24/227 – loss of 76 points)
4—Keith Dalgleish (4/24 – loss of 3 points)
3—Nick Alexander (7/73 – loss of 25 points)
3—Donald McCain (31/132 – Profit of 33 points)
3—Nicky Richards (6/39 – Slight profit)
2—George Bewley (2/17 – loss of 6 points)
2—Chris Grant (8/67 – loss of 10 points)
2—Ben Haslam (No runners)
2—Noel C Kelly (0/1)
2—James Moffat (3/25 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Dianne Sayer (8/66 – loss of 3 points)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
General overview – There are no corresponding Placepot dividends from last year as the meetings at Bangor & Newcastle are new fixtures on the 2017 calendar