PONTEFRACT - JULY 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £44.10 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (2.10): 4 (Another Day Of Sun), 3 (Shaheen) & 2 (Areen Faisal)
Leg 2 (2.40): 2 (The Nazca Lines), 5 (Lady Cristal) & 7 (Dapper Man)
Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (Permission), 2 (Crowning Glory) & 7 (Pirouette)
Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Courier), 8 (Tigerwolf) & 1 (Robero)
Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Walton Street) & 7 (Love Conquers)
Leg 6 (4.40): 3 (Golconda Prince) & 6 (Ching Ching Lor)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: The ‘Nursery’ season is upon us once more (this is not the first two-year-old handicap of the season however), and I for one have been waiting with my usual lack of patience for this stage of the year. Two-year-old handicap races (respectfully) baffle senior pundits and commentators throughout the land, but these events offer we Placepotters great opportunities from now until the end of the season. I cannot pretend that we will always come through unscathed, but many punters haven’t the first notion on how to tackle these nursery contests, and that is to our advantage. I wrote a book (Nursery Class) a good few years back that educated yours truly regarding trends and theories about the contests, and let’s hope that this season will work well for us yet again. I’ll offer just a brief glimpse of the background to my research. Karl Burke sent four nursery runners to a certain track a few years ago, claiming gold on three occasions, securing a forecast for good measure via the lone ‘loser’! The winners scored at 11/2—9/2—6/4, whilst the forecast raider was returned at 16/1. If that doesn’t ensure that you will log onto this column for the rest of the season, nothing will! Richard Fahey (AREEN FAISAL) and John Quinn (SHAHEEN) are the only represented trainers to have saddled winners of this event during the last decade, reminding readers that the 2012 meeting was abandoned. Richard is one of only two trainers to have saddled two winners at the corresponding meeting during a five year study of the results, whilst SHAHEEN won at the last time of asking at Redcar, not than following form from that particular racecourse has been seen as an advantage down the years. ANOTHER DAY OF SUN was going right way until meeting up with ground which contained some moisture the last day whereby Mick Channon’s raider will be kept on the right side as long as the going is reported as good or faster. It’s also worth noting that Slvestre De Sousa boasts a 32% strike rate when riding for Mick this season. The Love Doctor is proving expensive to follow.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one co favourite have won in the last eighteen years. 11/24 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.
2.40: Kevin Ryan has saddled the winner in each of the four renewals of this event when the trainer was represented whereby it is a crying shame that Kevin has not declared a horse for the third successive season, with readers pointed towards his 16/1 winner three years ago who (understandably) was the first horse mentioned in dispatches! I have left the stats and facts in the analysis in the hope that twelve months on from now, we can look forward to the race once again. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that THE NAZCA LINES (something to do with rock formation in Peru) looks sure to be there or thereabouts again, with LADY CRISTAL (Karl Burke’s only runner at the meeting) and DAPPER MAN (trainer Roger Fell landed a 67/1 double at Ayr on Sunday) added to the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight market leaders (statistics include four winners) have finished in the money thus far. The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 16/1 (three years ago).
3.10: This event is named after the 10 race winning filly/mare Pipalong who plied her trade from 1998 onward though as she did not win here at Pontefract, I’m slightly surprised the race is staged at Pontefract, albeit she thoroughly deserves the accolade. Four-year-olds have won 10 of the 13 renewals and vintage representatives are 1/3 to extend the good trend before form is taken into consideration, trainers finally having cottoned on to the situation! James Fanshawe goes for the double having saddled last year’s winner whereby PERMISSION is the first name on the team sheet, especially as the Authorized filly is the only stable contender on the card on Tuesday. CROWNING GLORY and PIROUETTE are other southern based raiders who could snare the Pontefract swag on this occasion, a scenario which would please the locals no end!
Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen favourites have won with the biggest priced gold medallist having been returned at 12/1 (three years ago). Tread carefully however, as four of the last six market leaders have finished out of the frame at odds of 4/6-6/4-2/1-7/2.
3.40: 16 of the last 20 winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, whilst four and five-year olds have won eight of the last twelve renewals between them, with the ‘juniors’ leading 5-3 during the study period. COURIER, TIGERWOLF and ROBERO might prove to be the pick of five relevant declarations this time around. Some ‘housework’ to tidy up whilst I think of it. This meeting has produced an average Placepot dividend of £416.26 during the last five years when racing was staged, whilst 33/35 winners during the period were returned at a top price of 12/1, statistics which include 15 gold medallists.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has obliged in this event during the study period, whilst only ten of the twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Draw factor' (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):
5-8-10 (13 ran-good)
10-2-9 (9 ran-placed)
13-7-6 (10 ran-soft)
3-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
1-7-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
8-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-7-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
8-7-12 (13 ran-good to soft)
6-7-11 (14 ran-good)
2-5-4 (12 ran-good)
7-2-9 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-3-11 (14 ran-good to firm)
12-15-16-10 (17 ran-good to firm)
16-10-1-12 (16 ran-good)
2-14-10 (15 ran-good to soft)
11-12-1 (13 ran-good to firm)
16-12-11 (15 ran-good)
2-13-6 (13 ran-good to soft)
5-11-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
4.10: Charlie Appleby’s 37% strike rate here at Pontefract via 13 winners (ratio of 1/2 this season) demands that you offer plenty of respect to his Cape Cross newcomer WALTON STREET, though it’s worth pointing out that the damn has only foaled one other runner to date who remains a maiden after seven assignments. That said, Charlie knows the time of day and WALTON STREET is joined by LOVE CONQUERS in my Placepot mix in the penultimate leg of our favourites wager. Readers sometimes question why I rate Charlie’s runners so highly. It’s as well to appreciate that the trainer boasts a minimum 20% strike rate on exactly half of the racecourses (17/34) where his stable has been represented in the UK thus far. The fact that Charlie’s best strike rate is registered here at Pontefract gave yours truly the perfect opportunity to offer praise where it is undoubtedly due.
Favourite factor: Both (6/4 & 8/15) favourites have obliged to date.
4.40: The last six gold medallists (of seven in total) have won at a top price of 6/1 and horses towards the top end of the market expected to figure prominently here include GOLCONDA PRINCE and Declan Carroll’s hat trick seeker CHING CHING LOR. Five of the seven winners have carried a minimum burden of nine stones, stats which eliminate three horses in the handicap (one via a claiming pilot) if you believe in such figures.
Favourite factor: Market leaders came into the Placepot finale on a four-timer last year, though both (5/1) joint favourites finished out of the money. Five of the eight favourites thus far have secured Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Pontefract card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Mick Channon (1/3 – slight loss)
4—Richard Fahey (2/33 – loss of 28 points)
4—David O’Meara (4/17 – Slight profit)
3—Declan Carrol (0/5)
3—Nigel Tinkler (0/3)
2—Michael Appleby (0/9)
2—Ralph Beckett (1/3 – slight loss)
2—Ruth Carr (1/10 – Profit of 1 point)
2—Michael Dods (1/15 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Marjorie Fife (0/3)
2—Jedd O’Keeffe (0/6)
2—John Quinn (1/8 – Profit of 3 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
60 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £77.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £17.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 placed
Wolverhampton: £60.80 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced