BEVERLEY - JULY 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £8.70 (6 favourites - 1 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley:
Leg 1 (2.15): 1 (Geesala Brave), 4 (Tember) & 9 (Ben My Chree)
Leg 2 (2.45): 8 (Dandy’s Beano), 5 (Jamie’s Joy) & 2 (Roundhay Park)
Leg 3 (3.15): 3 (Roaring Rory), 1 (Sarabi) & 14 (Joysunny)
Leg 4 (3.45): 5 (La Frittilaire), 4 (Corpus Chorister) & 6 (Waterclock)
Leg 5 (4.15): 9 (George Reme), 11 (Keepup Kevin) & 13 (Traveltalk)
Leg 6 (4.45): 4 (Lord Reason)
Suggested stake: 243 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: If you ask how many winners John Quinn averages with his juveniles I doubt many would give the correct answer of nine (over the course of the last five years) whereby I have more confidence in his Arcano colt GEESALA BRAVE than was the case before I looked up the ratios. There is money around for Jason Hart’s mount in the dead of night and with John being amongst the winners of late, I’ll opt for the April foal. Bryan Smart has sent his last 19 runners to post without greeting any of them in the circle reserved for winners, which tempers enthusiasm regarding his BEN MY CHREE to a fashion. That can’t be said about David Barron who has scored with two of his last seven raiders. David’s representative TEMBER could put vital racecourse experience to winning effect in a relatively weak contest.
Favourite factor: The first two races on the card and the divisions of a new contest with which to open proceedings.
2.45: JAMIE’S JOY was staying on at the first time of asking and as Tony Coyle has won with two of his nine juveniles this year, the 22/1 quote (in a place) makes for interesting each way/Placepot reading. Tony’s ratio comes nicely packaged with a level stake profit of 31 points in this sector and after sending a 10/1 winner over to Ireland at the weekend, Tony won’t be listening to bookies relating to the chance of his Sleeping Indian colt. I grant you that more logical winners in the field might include ROUNDHAY PARK and (possibly) DANDY’S BEANO but the price differential does not make a great deal of sense at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race.
3.15: Layers seem to want to keep course and distance winner ROARING RORY ‘onside here’ with none of main firms offering more than 5/1 about the Ollie Pears raider. Seven pound claimer Seamus Cronin rode his first winner up at Ayr yesterday whereby there will be confidence from the saddle now that Seamus has broken through the maiden ranks! David Allan (SARABI) has won on four of his last twelve mounts and prices all come alike to this underrated pilot, David having secured 19 points of level stake profit during the period. If you are looking for a complete outsider, you do worse than consider the merits of JOYSUNNY who Bet365 are taking seriously, given their skinny 9/1 quote as I write this column, compared to 14/1 which is freely available across the board. That price is till interesting given the 20/1 mark up by the trade press lads and lasses when chalking up their odds. Mick ‘transferred’ his Camacho filly to Jacqueline Coward recently whilst retaining ownership, whereby there is probably a story to listen to, and few tell stories like Mick! JOYSUNNY ran down the field the other day, though it’s worth noting that Jacqueline’s previous runner won at Epsom last week.
Favourite factor: Four of the last 19 favourites have won, whilst eight other ‘jollies’ have finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/5—Roaring Rory (good to firm)
1/1—Mr Strutter (good)
1/7—George Bialey (good to firm)
3.45: 14/1 (available in a couple of places at the time of writing) about WATERCLOCK makes a little each way appeal about the horse which won this event two years ago, though the eight-year-old does not seem to be force of old, even in this grade. LA FRITTILAIRE and CORPUS CHORISTER are arguably more logical winners in the field, though the morning prices reflect that scenario.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged in the last 18 years. Only five of the other favourites during the study period claimed additional toteplacepot positions.
Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/3—Waterclock (good to firm)
4.15: Only six pounds separate 11 of the 13 runners (taking a claim into account relating to the top weight) as is often the case in run of the mill mixed vintage handicaps. My (value for money) attention is drawn to the trio of three-year-olds in the field, namely GEORGE REME, KEEPUP KEVIN and TRAVELTALK in a wide open contest. If the junior raiders are not up to the task this time around, TADAAWOL could prove to be the joker in the pack, especially with Roger Fell’s runners going so well just now.
Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions by winning their respective event to date at odds of 5/2, 9/4 & 11/8.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest:
5/15—Talent Scout (5 x good to firm)
4/27—Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)
4.45: 15 of the 20 horses which have secured toteplacepot positions carried weights of 9-5 or more, stats which includes all eight winners. Couple that scenario alongside the fact the five-year-olds have won four of the eight contests and LORD REASON jumps off the page from my viewpoint, despite the recent four pound hike for winning his third race in eight starts for the bang in form yard of John Butler. LORD REASON has gained those victories under different ground conditions, having finished in the frame (exact science) on six of his nine assignments since changing stables. Ranging between 5/1 and 7/1 this morning, I would not like to offer ‘the edge’ to punters from an each way perspective. Talking of odds, John Butler’s current strike rate of 20.3% via his last 11 winners comes with a healthy level stake profit of 65 points attached! Our good friend ‘Tony Mac’ will be pleased with the (dead eight) turn out for his race and I rate BIG TIME DANCER as the main danger to the selection.
Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame, whilst six years have slipped by since the last of the two successful favourites scored. That said, all eight winners have scored at a top price of just 5/1.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Mon Beau Rivage (good)
3/21—Make On Madam (2 x good & good to firm)
1/1—Big Time Dancer (good to firm)
Trainer stats for July (both codes) relating to runners in this (‘Tony Mac’) event:
8/81—David O’Meara (-15 to level stakes) – Mon Beau Rivage & Pumaflor
5/41—John Quinn (-14) – Worlds His Oyster
5/18—John Butler (+33) – Lord Reason
0/10—Les Eyre – Make On Madam
6/43—Brian Ellison (-14) – Big Time Dancer
21/125—Mark Johnston (-13) – Valley Of Rocks
0/15—Ollie Pears – Mont Royal
Mal’s 1-2-3 – Lord Reason – Big Time Dancer – Valley Of Rocks
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—David O’Meara (3/38 – loss of 19 points)
5—John Quinn (2/10 – Profit of 1 point)
5—Ollie Pears (2/15 – Profit of 27 points)
4—Brian Ellison (0/12)
3—David Brown (0/1)
3—Tim Easterby (2/42 – loss of 33 points)
3—Les Eyre (1/10 – loss of 3 points)
3—Richard Fahey (10/43 – Slight profit)
3—Nigel Tinkler (0/19)
2—Scott Dixon (1/9 – loss of 3 points)
2—Mick Easterby (0/7)
2—Julia Feilden (No previous runners this season)
2—Roger Fell (1/13 – loss of 10 points)
2—Suzanne France (No previous runners)
2—Mark Johnston (7/35 (Profit of 8 points)
2—Paul Midgley (0/12)
2—Kevin Ryan (2/18 – loss of 2 points)
2—Pam Sly (No previous runners)
2—Bryan Smart (1/12 – loss of 3 points)
2—Karen Tutty (3/12 – Profit of 28 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
85 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Bath: £421.60 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced
Thirsk: £145.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Worcester: £357.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced