MUSSELBURGH - JULY 19
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £76.70 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (The Wee Barra), 1 (Lucky Violet) & 6 (Alan's Pride)
Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Showtime) & 3 (Bongrace)
Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Pea Shooter), 3 (Lydia's Place) & 6 (Star Cracker)
Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Multi Grain), 6 (Morocco) & 5 (Spokesperson)
Leg 5 (4.15): 5 (Novinophobia) & 2 (American Hustle)
Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Roc De Prince) & 1 (Always Resolute)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: Four-year-olds are 4/5 to add to their 2/3 record in the opening race before the form book is taken into consideration, with relevant raiders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around. The pick of the quintet will hopefully prove to be THE WEE BARRA and LUCKY VIOLET and ALAN'S PRIDE. The trio are listed in order of preference at the overnight stage in a race which will not prove difficult to win.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites have secured toteplacepot position by winning their respective events.
Record of course winner in the opening event:
1/2--Alan's Pride (good)
2.45: Mark Johnston (SHOWTIME LADY & BRIDAL MARCH) and Kevin Ryan (BONGRACE) should dominate the race between them, especially taking into account the five year juvenile record of the trainers at the track which are listed at the foot of the column. SHOWTIME LADY is an interesting Mastercraftsman newcomer who also held an entry at Thirsk later in the week. You can hardly blame Mark for targeting this event, despite having an experienced stable companion in the mix. It's a little surprising that these are Mark's only two runners on the card, with the trainer boasting 6/22 stats at the venue (leading trainer) this season. The other two raiders both finished sixth in their respective events and have plenty to prove already.
Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 7/4 market leader was beaten a short head by the 2/1 second favourite in a 'short field' contest. New readers might want to know that the term 'short field' relates to 5/6/7 runner events in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
3.15: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have won all four contests thus far, whilst four-year-olds were denied a four timer twelve months ago. STAR CRACKER is (unbelievably) the only four-year-old in the line up, though Jim Goldie's raider would prefer some moisture in the ground. Horses further up the weight who qualify via the 'superior handicap barrier' include course and distance winner PEA SHOOTER and LYDIA'S PLACE.
Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include one winner.
Records of course winners in the third race:
1/1--Pea Shooter (good)
2/21--Go Go Green (good to soft & good to firm)
2/19--Bunce (good to soft & good to firm)
3.45: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-4 have won all five renewals thus far, whilst seven-year-olds have won all four renewals when represented. MOROCCO is the lone vintage representative whereby Karen Tutty's raider is the first (each way) name on the team sheet, closely followed by MULTI GRAIN and NEUF DE COEURS. That said, defending champion SPOKESPERSON cannot be left out of the overnight equation.
Favourite factor: Two of the six market leaders (via five contests) have claimed toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events.
Records of course winners in the fourth contest:
4/17--Merchant Of Dubai (2 x good to soft - 1 x soft - 1 x good to firm)
2/10--Neuf Des Coeurs (good & Good to firm)
1/8--Sohcahtoa (good to firm)
4.15: All six winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 or more, whilst three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the six contests to date. Two horses are eliminated via the weight stats accordingly which leaves six horses to assess, the pick of which might prove to be NOVINOPHOBIA. The only other horse to possess ticks in both boxes is AMERICAN HUSTLE. Three-year-old DEBEN completes my trio against the field despite sitting two pounds light of the superior handicap mark.
Favourite factor: Four of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include two successful market leaders and one joint favourite.
Records of course winners in the fifth event:
3/8--Ellaal (good - good to soft - good to firm)
1/11--Dark Crystal (good)
4.45: There are consistent performers in the toteplacepot finale and no mistake and with Keith Dalgleish saddling winners for fun just now, course and distance winner ROC DE PRINCE heads the list. That said, ALWAYS RESOLUTE and HILLGROVE ANGEL look unlikely to go down without a fight at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have been beaten thus far with just two Placepot positions secured to date.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2--Hillgrove Angel (good to firm)
2/12--Jan Smuts (good - soft)
2/12--Jonny Delta (good - good to soft)
1/3--Roc De Pronce (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Tuesday:
7--Jim Goldie (2/28 at Musselburgh this season - winners at 16/1 & 11/2)
7--Linda Perratt (0/22)
5--Keith Dalgleish (2/30 - winners at 11/1 & 11/4)
4--Brian Ellison (1/7 - winner at 11/2)
3--Rebecca Bastiman (0/5)
3--Ian Jardine (2/18 - winners at 10/1 & 3/1)
3--Kevin Ryan (4/14 - winners at 4/1-2/1-2/1*-13/8*)
2--Ruth Carr (5/14 - winners at 16/1-13/2-5/1-5/1-9/2)
2--Richard Guest (2/8 - winners at 10/1 & 5/2*)
2--Micky Hammond (1/8 - winner at 10/1)
2--Mark Johnston (6/22 - winners at 10/1-6/1-3/1-5/2*-85/40*-5/6*)
2--John David Riches (0/4)
2--Wilf Storey (0/5)
2--Karen Tutty (No runners yet this season)
2--Fred Watson (0/2)
+ 15 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
63 declared runners
General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chelmsford: £95.90 - 7 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced
Ffos Las: £146.90 - 6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced
David Evans secured a 560/1 double on last year's corresponding card at Ffos Las!
Nottingham is a new fixture on the calendar
Musselburgh overview - Five year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant (2.45) event:
3/28--Bryan Smart (Pepys)
16/62--Mark Johnston (Showtime Lady & Bridal March)
8/30--Keven Ryan (Bongrace)
1/6--Karl Burke (Copper Baked)