Placepot pointers – Tuesday July 26

Goodwood - July 26

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £358.90 (10 favourite - 3 winners - 3 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 13 (Snoano), 2 (Second Wave), 9 (Erik The Red) & 12 (Balmoral Castle)

Leg 2 (2.35): 9 (Thunder Snow), 10 (War Decree) & 1 (Boynton)

Leg 3 (3.10): 8 (Gifted Master) & 6 (Birchwood)

Leg 4 (3.45): 9 (A Soldier's Life), 7 (Francis Of Assisi) & 2 (King Bolete)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Maljaa), 7 (Boom The Groom) & 6 (Union Rose)

Leg 6 (4.55): 5 (Mazyoun) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Five years stats for the opening day of Glorious Goodwood:

Average Placepot dividend: £320.66 - 37 favourites - 8 winners - 13 placed - 16 unplaced

35 races in total:

8 winning favourites - 20 winners at SP of 9/1 or less - 15 winners at 10/1 or more

 

Leading trainers on the opening day of the meeting covering 2011 - 2015 inclusive:

4 winners: Mark Johnston (20/1-14/1-12/1-7/1)

3 winners: Hugo Palmer (7/1**-9/2-3/1)

Another trainer of some interest is Tony Carroll on day 1, as Tony has saddled two winners at 25/1 and 22/1 on the Tuesday of the meeting during the study period and has declared just one horse, namely Boom The Groom (4.20)

 

Leading winners in the trainer sector during the entire week via the study period of five years:

17 winners--Mark Johnston

8 winners--Richard Hannon - though 'Team Hannon' is responsible for 25 gold medallists in total

 

Favourite and SP stats for the last five years:

175 races:

177 winners - 2 races resulted in a dead heat on the same day (Friday) in 2012!

45 winning favourites - 25.7% winners/races

119 winners were returned a t a top price of 9/1 - 67.2% of all winners

58 winners were sent off at 10/1 or more (32.8%)

 

Overview for Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: 11 of the last 13 winners have carried weights of 8-11 or more, whilst four-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 11-3 during the study period, with four-year-olds coming to the opening race at the meeting on a six timer, with vintage representatives having secured all four toteplacepot positions two years ago via nearly 59% of the total number of runners.  Nine of the 18 entries hail from the ranks this time around and making most appeal on this occasion are SNOANO (drawn 17/18), SECOND WAVE (8) and ERIK THE RED (14), especially as high numbers are favoured.  REVOLUTIONIST (13) hails from the Mark Johnston which has nailed three of the last seven renewals of this opening event.   BALMORAL CASTLE (18) has a superb record at the track and cannot be eliminated from the equation at the overnight stage.

Favourite factor: The previous 17 favourites had all been beaten before one of last year's 8/1 joint market leader obliged.  12 of the last 15 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winners in the opening contest on the card:

1/2--Best Of Times (good)

1/5--Noble Gift (good)

1/4--Oasis Fantasy (good)

4/6--Balmoral Castle (3 x good & 1 x good to firm)

2.35:  'Team Hannon' has won four of the last six renewals, with Repton and Hakeem probably representing the stable to best effect on this occasion.  Last year's winner was the subsequent 2000 Guineas hero Galileo Gold and we look to have another hot contest on our hands here, whereby the the Hannon trio might have to give best to the likes of WAR DECREE, THUNDER SNOW and BOYNTON.  THUNDER SNOW could represent the value for money call on this better ground, Saeed Bin Suroor's Helmet colt having been inconvenienced by slow conditions at Ascot on day one of the royal meeting.  The fact that he was good enough to finished second on his side of the course when obviously ill at ease tells you everthing you need to know, from a Placepot/each way perspective at least.

Favourite factor: 10 of the last 19 favourites have prevailed, whilst 12 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record the winner in the second event:

1/1--Boynton (good)

3.10: Three-year-olds have secured five of the last nine renewals of the Group 2 Lennox Stakes and GIFTED MASTER (winner of five of his last seven assignments) and BIRCHWOOD (second to Galileo Gold in the previous race on the card twelve months ago) are two definite 'players' on this occasion.Hugo Palmer has saddled three winners on day 1 of the meeting during the last five years for good measure, whereby GIFTED MASTER is the marginal call.  Stable companion HOME OF THE BRAVE is nominated as the overnight reserve, though I expect the race to return to type with a junior raider prevailing.  

Favourite factor: Five favourites have scored via the last 17 renewals, whilst 13 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record the winner in the third race:

1/2--Dutch Connection (good to firm)

3.45: Four and five year-olds had (equally) shared 10 of the last 12 renewals between them before last year's renewals when the five-year-olds took a marginal lead, though the younger set had held the call recently having secured four of the previous seven contests.  Horses carrying a minimum weight of 9-2 hold the call of late, though that fact only eliminates two runners from the foot of the handicap this time around.  The pick of the remaining 12 contenders could prove to be five-year-old A SOLDIER'S LIFE (look at Charlie Appleby's fabulous record at the track below), stable companion FRANCIS OF ASSISI and Roger Varaan's four-year-old raider KING BOLETE who who comes to the gig on a hat trick. GANG WARFARE would be a threat to all if he could transfer his A/W form to turf, which might be required given his 1/9 ratio away from 'sand'.

Favourite factor: 10 of the 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners) during the last 15 years.

Record the winner in the fourth event:

1/3--Arch Villain (good to soft)

1/4--Notarised (good)

4.20: Four-year-olds finished 1-2-4 via just four representatives in the first running of this event last year having been sent off at 14/1, 5/2 & 20/1.  It's worth noting that the fourth horse was none other than BOOM THE GROOM which I mentioned earlier in dispatches.  Four-year-olds are around the 7/4 mark to 'double up', with the pick of the relevant seven contenders arguably being MALJAA and UNION ROSE.  Nigel Tinkler's northern raider THESME is added into the overnight mix.

Favourite factor: Last year's inaugural 5/2 market leader found one too good for him.

Record the winner in the fifth race:

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3/11--Humidor (2 x good & 1 x good to firm)

1/6--Confessional (good to firm)

1/4--Extrasolar (good)

4.55: Hugo Palmer was waxing lyrical about his Mayson colt MAZYOUN some time ago and having now had time to "look under the bonnet", I think we can presume that the trainer likes the look of his engine!  Hugo is not one to enthuse readily about his juveniles whereby I think it's safe enough to suggest that he believes he has something special in his Febrauary foal and I would be disappointed to say the least if Frankie Dettori's mount failed to finish 'in the three'.  Others to consider include HARRY ANGEL and Mark Johnston's newcomer RICH AND FAMOUS.

Favourite factor: 11 of the last 16 gold medallists were returned at odds of 13/2 or less (five winning favourites), though the 50/1 winner in 2004 was only cheered on by the layers.  Six of the last eight market leaders have missed out on toteplacepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the (Glorious) Goodwood card on Tuesday:

8--Richard Hannon (5/24 at Goodwood this season - winners at 16/1-7/1-9/2*-9/2-3/1)

7--Mark Johnston (3/18 - winners at 17/2-7/1-5/2)

5--Charlie Appleby (5/7 - winners at 5/1-9/2-4/1-11/4-11/8*)

4--Sylvester Kirk (1/8 - winner at 11/2)

3--Ralph Beckett (1/9 - winner at 11/2)

3--Mick Channon (3/18 - winners at 7/2*-5/2*-9/4*)

3--Tim Easterby (1/1 - winner at 4/1)

3--Richard Fahey (1/4 - winner at 6/1)

3--Charlie Hills (0/5)

3--William Knight (1/10 - winner at 10/3*)

3--Hugo Palmer (0/3)

3--Saeed Bin Suroor (0/4)

2--Eric Alston (---)

2--George Baker (0/9)

2--Paul Cole (1/6 - winner at 11/1)

2--Clive Cox (1/6 - winner at 8/1)

2--Luca Cumani (0/3)

2--Amanda Perrett (0/15)

2--Roger Varian (1/7 - winner at 2/1)

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Beverley: £540.70 - 6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced

Worcester: £122.10 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced

Three meetings at Perth and Yarmouth last year were abandoned

 

Goodwood overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.35 & 4.55

2.35:

5/21--Charlie Appleby (Boynton)

13/87--Richard Hannon (Hakeem - Larchmont Lad - Repton)

2/27--Andrew Balding (Isomer)

1/12--William Knight (Jackhammer)

0/15--Paul Cole (Medieval)

1/15--Ralph Beckett (Pleaseletmewin)

3/13--Saeed Bin Suroor (Thunder Snow)

1/1--Aidan O'Brien (War Decree)

4.55: 

3-13--Saeed Bon Suroor (Best Solution)

0/4--Ed Walker (Colonel Frank)

2/15--Eve Johnson Houghton (Five Star Frank)

1/22--Clive Cox (Harry Angel)

2/6--Hugo Palmer (Mazyoun)

3/44--Charlie Hills (Parys Mountain)

0/17--Stan Moore (Poetic Principle)

13/66--Mark Johnston (Rich And Famous)

0/13--Sylvester Kirk (Salouen)

1/12--William Knight (Sea Shack)

13/87--Richard Hannon (Swag & Tesko Fella)

 

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2 replies
  1. vhlmurphy says:

    It looks a very tough card on the placepotting front to start the week. Full green Instant expert Ducth Connection in the 3rd and fav in the last with a large scatter gun approach with the other 4 races will be my play Day 1. Good luck. Vince

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