MUSSELBURGH - JULY 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £869.60 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Musselburgh:
Leg 1 (2.15): 9 (Love To Rock), 6 (Joyful Star) & 1 (Adventureman)
Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Footsteps Forever) & 2 (Dontgiveuponbob)
Leg 3 (3.15): 2 (Paddy Power), 1 (Royal Brace) & 4 (Rock Of America)
Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Question Of Faith) & 4 (Traditional Dancer)
Leg 5 (4.15): 6 (Sunnua), 8 (Hamster Jam) & 4 (Donnelly’s Rainbow)
Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Sebastian’s Wish) & 1 (Dubawi Fifty)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Musselburgh - five year corresponding study:
35 races – 11 winning favourites – 33/35 winners scored at a top price of 12/1
Average Placepot dividend: £591.82
Highest dividend: £1747.00 (2012) - Lowest dividend: £76.60 (2015)
Leading trainers at the corresponding meeting during the study period:
3 winners—Iain Jardine (8/1, 11/2 & 4/1) - 3 runners: Kerry Icon (2.15), Traditional Dancer (3.45) & Stoneham (4.45)
3 winners--Mark Johnston (9/2, 15/8 & 7/4*) - 2 runners: Forever Footsteps (2.45) & Hamster Jam (4.15)
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: There is some overnight money for JOYFUL STAR emerging in a race which should not prove difficult to win. You might do well to obtain the trade press quote of 10/1 this morning about Graham Lee’s mount, with connections possibly having most to fear from course winner AVENTUREMAN and LOVE TO ROCK whose trainer (Adrian Paul Keatley) saddled a (16/1) winner at Ayr on the opposite coastline in Scotland yesterday. Adrian boasts a 25% percent record via 15 winners at Ayr during the last five years though interestingly, this is his first runner at Musselburgh in all of that time.
Favourite factor: The opening race is a new event on the Musselburgh card
Course winners in the opening event:
2/13—Nelson’s Bay (good to firm & soft)
2.45: Keith Burke seems to be saddling more winners down south these days whereby FOOTSTEPS FOREVER and DONTGIVEUPONBOB are preferred to Myboyhenry on this occasion. The latter named raider made his debut two months ago now which also poses a question, whereas the first named pair are battle hardened and ready to dual for the main prize from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Just one of the two favourites has finished in the frame to date (no winners).
3.15: Horses carrying 9-6 or more have won four of the five contests thus far, whilst four-year-olds (three wins) have the best record in the race. The vintage stats suggest that PADDY POWER cannot be left out of the equation in a race in which many of the entries meet each other on a regular basis which makes this look like a ‘greyhound’ event. Pearl Acclaim has contested 34 assignments since last tasting success, whereby ROYAL BRAVE and ROCK OF AMERICA are the main threats to the selection according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have finished in the frame thus far, statistics which include one winner.
Course winners in the third race:
2/7—Royal Brave (2 x good to firm)
5/17—Silvanus (2 x good & 3 x good to firm)
2/15—Economic Crisis (2 x good to firm)
1/6—Pearl Acclaim (good to firm)
3.45: Horses carrying a minimum burden of 9-4 have won five of the six renewals thus far, whilst seven-year-olds have won four of the five contests when represented. That said, vintage representative are only conspicuous by their absence this time around. Spokesperson won this event two years ago but has only finished in front of just two of her 57 rivals since that success! Others are preferred accordingly, with QUESTION OF FAITH and TRADITIONAL DANCER jumping off the page and I fully expect this pair to lock horns at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders (via five contests) have claimed toteplacepot positions by winning their respective events.
Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
1/4—Cosmic Tigress (good to firm)
2/18—Jonny Delta (good & good to firm)
4.15: All seven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 or more, whilst three-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 to date. Two horses are eliminated via the weight stats accordingly which leaves ten horses to assess, the pick of which might prove to be SUNNUA, HAMSTER JAM and DONNELLY’S RAINBOW from a value for money perspective at least. It will interesting to see if overnight support for SUNNUA continues into the mainstream investment period.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three successful market leaders and one joint favourite.
Course winners in the fifth race:
1/2—Fine Example (good to firm)
4/18—Ralphy Boy (3 x good & good to firm)
2/18—Cyflymder (good & good to firm)
4.45: DUBAWI FIFTY represents Karen McLintocks as the popular trainer seeks to break her bad run at Musselbugh, her last ten raiders having been beaten in Edinburgh during the last five years. Layers look frightened of laying Graham Lee’s mount beyond the 3/1 mark which makes for interesting reading. That said, SEBASTIAN’S WISH is on the crest of a wave right now and looks to be the horse to beat. His 2/3 record at the course under these type of conditions suggests that the ratio will be improved upon this afternoon, unless Karen’s raider is cherry ripe for the battle after a long break from the track.
Favourite factor: All five favourites have been beaten thus far with three Placepot positions secured to date.
Course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/3—Sebastian’s Wish (2 x good to firm)
2/7—Wor Lass (good & good to firm)
2/6—Stoneham (2 x good)
2/14—Jan Smuts (good & soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Musselburgh card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Keith Dalgleish (5/46 – loss of 25 points)
4—Jim Goldie (2/21 – loss of 13 points)
3—Rebecca Bastiman (3/10 – Profit of 6 points)
3—Richard Fahey (5/27 – Profit of 8 points)
3—Iain Jardine (1/16 – loss of 13 points)
3—David O’Meara (1/7 – Profit of 4 points)
3—Fred Watson (0/1)
2—Karl Burke (1/6 – loss of 1 point)
2—David C Griffiths (1/10 – loss of 3 points)
2—Mark Johnston (0/1)
2—Adrian Paul Keatley (No previous runners)
2—Karen McLintock (0/1)
2—Linda Perratt (0/7)
2—John David Riches (No previous runners)
2—Wilf Storey (0/4)
+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
58 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ffos Las: £9.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Nottingham: £139.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Chelmsford: £60.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced