BRIGHTON – JULY 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £13.30 (6 favourites: All six favourites placed – no winners)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Provoking), 1 (Archie Stevens), 2 (Cee Jay) & 10 (Harlequin Rose)
Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Rustique) & 2 (Carcharias)
Leg 3 (3.15): 1 (Another Glimpse) & 5 (Frosting)
Leg 4 (3.45): 6 (Buzz Lightyere), 7 (Lazizah) & 10 (Storm Runner)
Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Lightly Squeezed), 5 (Let’s Be Happy) & 6 (Melodine)
Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Miss Mirabeau) & 5 (Still Waiting)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: Four-year-olds have won four (of nine) contests, whilst the last seven gold medallists have carried a minimum of nine stones which eliminates eleven of the sixteen runners if we include potential jockey claims. The pick of the remaining quintet appears to be PROVOKING, ARCHIE STEVENS and CEE JAY. If the weight trend is to be breached on this occasion, HARLEQUIN ROSE should prove to be the joker in the pack, with Jimmy Quinn’s mount being the only course winner in the field.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have finished in the frame, with two of the relevant horses having won their respective races via nine contests to date.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/1—Harlequin Rose (good to firm)
2.45: RUSTIQUE deserves to go one better having snared the silver medal on each of her last two assignments. Ed Walker had greeted four of his last fourteen runners in the area reserved for winners at the time of writing and there is every chance Ed will be celebrating on Tuesday evening. Connections probably have most fear from course and distance winner CARCHARIAS and (possibly) WELSH INLET, though a slightly shorter trip would have been ideal for John Bridger’s latter named nine-year-old raider.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites to have secured toteplacepot positions did so by winning their respective events at odds of 5/1-6/4-11/8-4/7 via seven contests.
Record of course winners in the second race:
4/15—Welsh Inlet (2 x good – soft – heavy)
3.15: It’s interesting to note that David Simcock (back to saddling regular winners) has declared a Medicean newcomer here, with SEINFELD presumably taking up the ‘second string status’ behind stable companion ANOTHER ECLIPSE who has delivered enough consistent efforts now to warrant the call from a win perspective. That said, the five pound concession to FROSTING will probably make Jamie Spencer pull out all the stops on the top weight, given that Frosting represents the William Haggas yard who are having a spectacular season. William boasts a 24.1% strike rate via 47 winners since the start of April at the time of writing, against comparable figures of 32 gold medallists last year (19.9%) during the same period.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had secured toteplacepot positions by finishing second in 'short field' events before the 5/6 market leader prevailed in 2014. However, the next 5/6 favourite missed out on a Placepot position, though the race reverted to type twelve months ago when the favourite snared a Placepot position without winning the relevant contest. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from Placepot and each way perspectives.
3.45: Although STORM RUNNER would look up against it here even if fully fit, a break of twelve months hardly helps the situation. That said, George Margarson has won this event with the only two horses he has saddled in the race (`14/1 & 6/1), whereby Storm Runner is not totally dismissed, especially as all six winners have carried 9-5 or less thus far. LAZIZAH is the other horse I could offer a chance to down towards the foot of the handicap, whilst naming BUZZ LIGHTYERE as a more logical winner. Silvestre De Sousa has ridden two winners via just three chances for Philip Hide this season at the time writing.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite following six renewals, with the last two gold medallists having been sent off at 14/1. Only two market leaders have reached the frame thus far.
Record of course winners in the fourth contest:
1/2—Master Of Heaven (good)
1/6—Silver Alliance (good to soft)
1/5—Buzz Lightyere (good)
4.15: And it came to pass that Silvestre De Sousa was booked to ride both of Philip Hide’s two runners on the card, with LIGHTLY SQUEEZED being the relevant thoroughbred this time around. It’s worth noting the seasonal trainer stats below which suggest that Philip’s runners should be taken seriously on this switchback surface. LET’S BE HAPPY and MELODINE are feared most.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Brighton card
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—Fair Power (good to soft)
1/6—Let’s Be Happy (good to firm)
4.45: Seven of the last eight winners have carried 9-3 or less and MISS MIRABEAU looks a typically interesting handicap recruit from Sir Mark Prescott’s shrewd yard. Running from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights, Mark’s Oasis Dream filly looks tailor made for the frame at least, with STILL WAITING and HIDDEN STASJH also under ‘surveillance’ on Monday afternoon.
Favourite factor: Just one (1/4) favourites has won the Placepot finale during the last decade. Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame during the study period.
Record of course winners in the sixth event:
1/2—Lord Clenaghcastle (good to form)
1/3—Hidden Stash (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Brighton card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Michael Appleby (1/2 – Slight profit)
3—David Evans (1/9 – loss of 4 points)
3—Gary Moore (2/15 – Profit of 14 points)
3—David Simcock (1/5 – level on the season
2—John Bridger (2/22 – loss of 11 points)
2—Patrick Chamings (0/2)
2—Clare Ellam (0/2)
2—Philip Hide (4/14 – Profit of 10 points)
2—Charlie Hills (0/2)
2—Brett Johnson (0/3)
2—George Margarson (loss of 1 point)
2—Sir Mark Prescott (0/2)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
60 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £1,313.10 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced
Hamilton: £165.40 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Stratford: 84.10 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced