PONTEFRACT - JULY 5
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £95.90 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Pontefract:
Leg 1 (2.10): 2 (On Her Toes) & 5 (Katebird)
Leg 2 (2.40): 11 (Mr Orange), 6 (Harmonic Way) & 3 (Swirral Edge)
Leg 3 (3.10): 12 (Mother's Finest) & 12 (Esteemable)
Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (Final Venture), 8 (Zebedaios) & 6 (Ocean Sheridan)
Leg 5 (4.10): 8 (Trainnah) & 2 (Different Journey)
Leg 6 (4.40): 10 (Whatkirk), 3 (Executor) & 9 (Dominanny)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: The ‘Nursery’ season is upon us once more (this is not the first two-year-old handicap of the season however), and I for one have been waiting with my usual lack of patience for this stage of the year. Two-year-old handicap races (respectfully) baffle senior pundits and commentators throughout the land, but these events offer we Placepotters great opportunities from now until the end of the season. I cannot pretend that we will always come through unscathed, but many punters haven’t the first notion on how to tackle these nursery contests, and that is to our advantage. I wrote a book (Nursery Class) a good few years back that educated yours truly regarding trends and theories about the contests, and let’s hope that this season will work well for us yet again. I’ll offer just a brief glimpse of the background to my research. Karl Burke sent four nursery runners to a certain track a few years ago, claiming gold on three occasions, securing a forecast for good measure via the lone ‘loser’! The winners scored at 11/2—9/2—6/4, whilst the forecast raider was returned at 16/1. If that doesn’t ensure that you will log onto this column for the rest of the season, nothing will! Karl is not represented this time around unfortunately, though Mark Johnston's KATEBIRD will be fairly popular, with Mark boasting Pontefract stats of 8/19 this season, notwithstanding his 5/6 ratio with his two-year-olds. That said, ON HER TOES was a decent winner (albeit on soft ground) on her second start and looks sure to figure prominently, whilst SPRINGWOOD is marginally preferred to PREROGATIVE as the main threat the first named pair. Three of Richard Fahey's four runners in the this event during the last five years have secured Placepot positions (one winner) and Richard's SPRINGWOOD will appreciate this return to six furlongs.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one co favourite have won in the last seventeen years. 10/23 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.
Draw factor' (six furlongs):
1-3 (6 ran-good)
9-6-3 (9 ran-good)
2-1 (7 ran-good to firm)
11-8-9 (12 ran-good to firm)
2-4 (5 ran-good to firm)
8-1-6 (8 ran-good to soft)
10-9-6 (9 ran-good)
4-7-9 (13 ran-good)
2-9-4 (9 ran—good to firm)
9-11-6 (11 ran—good to firm)
2-9-8 (9 ran—good to firm)
9-2-1 (14 ran—good)
2-15-4 (15 ran—good to soft)
4-5-10 (11 ran—good to firm)
9-6-12 (11 ran—good)
2-10 (7 ran—good to soft)
4-1-9 (9 ran—good to firm)
2.40: Kevin Ryan has saddled the winner in each of the four renewals of this event when the trainer was represented whereby it is a crying shame that Kevin has not declared a horse for the second successive season, with readers pointed towards his 16/1 winner two years ago who (understandably) was the first horse mentioned in dispatches! I have left the stats and facts in the analysis in the hope that twelve months on from now, we can look forward to the race once again. Upwards and onward however by suggesting that MR ORANGE and HARMONIC WAVE could offer value for money against SWIRRAL EDGE. There was plenty of rain falling at Ripon on Monday evening but if that moisture missed Pontefract Park overnight, the chances of the first named pair would improve. SWIRRAL EDGE could act on that type of ground too, though David Brown's representative might react more favourably than the other pair if rain gets into ground.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven market leaders (statistics include four winners) have finished in the money thus far. The biggest priced winner to date was returned at 16/1 (two year ago).
Draw factor (five furlongs):
1-5 (5 ran-good)
9-8 (7 ran-soft)
8-1-6 (8 ran-good to firm)
4-9-2 (10 ran-good to firm)
8-3-1 (8 ran-good to firm)
5-8 (7 ran-good to soft)
5-4-3 (9 ran-good)
3.10: This event is named after the 10 race winning filly/mare Pipalong who plied her trade from 1998 onward though as she did not win here at Pontefract, I’m slightly surprised the race is staged at Pontefract, albeit she thoroughly deserves the accolade. Four-year-olds have won 10 of the 12 renewals and vintage representatives are 8/13 to extend the good trend before form is taken into consideration, trainers finally having cottoned on to the situation! MOTHERS FINEST appears to be the filly to beat from my perspective or a least she would be if this race was run on an all weather surface. Whether Karl Burke's raider can transfer recent winning form to turf is open to discussion but if she fails to act on Tuesday, decent alternative options are available via course and distance winner ESTEEMABLE and MERRY ME. Easteemable looks overpriced at 14/1 in places overnight.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve favourites have won with the biggest priced gold medallist having been returned at 12/1 (two years ago). Tread carefully, as four of the last five market leaders have finished out of the frame at odds of 4/6-6/4-2/1-7/2.
3.40: 15 of the last 19 winners have carried weights of 9-0 or more, whilst four and five-year olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals between them, with the juniors leading 5-3 during the study period. FINAL VENTURE, OCEAN SHERIDAN and HANDSOME DUDE might prove to be the pick of six relevant declarations this time around. If the vintage trend is to be breached on this occasion, the untapped potential of ZEBEDAIOS might gain the day.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has obliged during the study period, whilst only nine of the twenty two market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Draw factor' (six furlongs):
10-2-9 (9 ran-placed)
13-7-6 (10 ran-soft)
3-10-2 (11 ran-good to firm)
1-7-2 (8 ran-good to soft)
8-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)
8-7-9 (9 ran-good to firm)
8-7-12 (13 ran-good to soft)
6-7-11 (14 ran-good)
2-5-4 (12 ran-good)
7-2-9 (11 ran-good to firm)
7-3-11 (14 ran-good to firm)
12-15-16-10 (17 ran-good to firm)
16-10-1-12 (16 ran-good)
2-14-10 (15 ran-good to soft)
11-12-1 (13 ran-good to firm)
16-12-11 (15 ran-good)
2-13-6 (13 ran-good to soft)
5-11-7 (15 ran-good to firm)
4.10: The worry about siding with what appears to be the obvious selection (TRAINNAH) is that she races against colts and gelding for the first time here which might make her odds appear to be a little cramped. Saeed Bin Suroor introduces his Poet's Voice colt DIFFERENT JOURNEY and this pair could end up dominating proceedings at the business end of the contest. Saeed suggested that James Doyle's mount was going to be a decent horse eighteen months ago, though the March foal was always going to take some time to reach the racecourse.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 6/4 favourite duly obliged twelve months ago.
4.40: The last five gold medallists (of six in total) have won at a top price of 5/1 and horses towards the top end of the market expected to figure prominently here include WHATKIRK, EXECUTOR and DOMINANNY. The first named raider represents Jedd O'Keeffe who can do little wrong at present, the trainer having saddled four of his last seven runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Favourites come into the toteplacepot finale on a four-timer, the last two market leaders having prevailed at 5/2-9/4-13/8. The first three favourites were beaten, whilst five of the last six jollies have finished in the frame (exact science).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Pontefract card on Tuesday:
4--Michael Dods (0/11 at Pontefract this season)
4--Ann Duffield (0/4)
4--Richard Fahey (5/24 - winners at 10/1-11/2-7/2*-7/2***-7/2)
3--Richard Hannon (---)
3--Paul Midgley (0/7)
2--Michael Appleby (1/7 - winner at 3/1**)
2--Andrew Balding (0/3)
2--David Barron (0/2)
2--Marco Botti (0/1)
2--Karl Burke (0/8)
2--Tony Coyle (0/7)
2--Mick Easterby (1/13 - winner at 14/1)
2--Brian Ellison (1/7 - winner at 16/1)
2--Les Eyre (0/6)
2--James Fanshawe (1/1 - winner at 4/1)
2--William Haggas (1/2 - winner at Evens*)
2--Micky Hammond (0/18)
2--Mark Johnston (8/19 - all eight winners ranging between 8/11* & 4/1)
2--David Loughnane (0/1)
2--Martyn Meade (---)
2--Alan Swinbank (0/5)
2--Ronald Thompson (---)
2--Tracy Waggott (0/3)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
54 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £120.50 - 7 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 2 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £11.00 - 6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 placed
Wolverhampton: £252.30 - 6 favourites - No winners - 3 placed - 3 unplaced
Pontefract overview: Five year juvenile record of represented trainers in the 2.10 contest:
1/4--Richard Hannon (Prerogative) - 25% strike rate
2/13--Willaim Haggas (On Her Toes) - 15.4% S/R
15/61--Richard Fahey (Springwood) - 24.6% S/R
0/5--Ben Haslam (Bourbonisto) - N/A
9/51--Mark Johnston (Katebird) - 17.6% S/R