ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 14
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last five years on Day One:
2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)
2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £370.46 -
32 favourites - 12 winners - 7 placed 13 unplaced
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 4 (Belardo), 12 (Ervedya) & 7 (Kodi Bear)
Leg 2 (3.05): 2 (Carravagguio) & 8 (Mehmas)
Leg 3 (3.40): 14 (Profitable), 20 (Mecca's Angel) & 6 (Jungle Cat)
Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (The Gurkha) & 1 (Awtaad)
Leg 5 (5.00): 13 (Mill Springs), 10 (Wolfcatcher), 20 (Moscato) & 3 (Silver Concorde)
Leg 6 (5.35): 22 (Big City Dreamin), 9 (Drafted) & 13 (Kananee)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Please scroll down to the foot of the column for overviews (includes in depth juvenile study at Royal Ascot):
2.30: There are 106 runners to sift through on Tuesday though if you believe that is a tough task, Wednesday's 117 potential starters suggest that bookmakers will need assistance to carry home the cash on the second day of the five day meeting! Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of BELARDO and ERVEDYA , with KODI BEAR ass the each way alternative option. The trio is listed in order of preference with the ground having gone the way of Roger Varian's Doncaster Mile winner BELARDO. These conditions were also in place when BELARDO beat KODI BEAR by two lengths in the 2014 running of the 'Dewhurst'. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to ESOTERIQUE, marginally ahead of AROD.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have scored in the last nineteen years, whilst nine market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:
1/2--Arod (good to firm)
1/3--Kodi Bear (good to firm)
1/2--Amazia Maria (good to firm)
3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last 20 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles CARAVAGGIO this time around. Connections might have most to fear from MEHMAS (my pick of Richard Hannon's pair of raiders- stable won the race in successive years in 2009/10) and YALTA at the business end of the contest. Aidan's Scat Daddy colt made light of soft ground at Curragh with Ryan Moore aboard, and the bandwagon looks set to roll on with the February foal CARAVAGGIO expected to step to this trip successfully en route to more victories later in the year.
Favourite factor: Six clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 13 of the 23 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
'First three in the betting’ in the last 12 years:
10 winners—6 placed—22 unplaced.
'Starting prices stats in the last 12 years':
7/1 or less: 11 winners—-9 placed—-29 unplaced
15/2 or more: Two winners—-17 placed-—150 unplaced
28/1 or more: No winners-—4 placed—-73 unplaced
Foaling stats in the last 12 years:
January: 1 winner & 7 places
February: 5 winners & 7 places
March: 4 winners & 7 places
April: 3 winners & 3 places
May: No winners & 2 places
3.40: Nine of the last thirteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders though the home contingent look set to rule on this occasion. I cannot pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done. I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through. Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal. People who watched the race believed that MECCA'S ANGEL was a tad unfortunate to be beaten by PROFITABLE recently but meeting on the same terms here, Clive Cox's raider is the value for money call, especially as PROFITABLE is a year younger with more scope for improvement. Others for the overnight mix certainly include JUNGLE CAT and possibly LANCELOT DU LAC, as an overpriced 40/1 chance in my book.
Favourite factor: Two of the last nine favourites have won, whilst 11 of the last 25 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions going back further in time.
Record of course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:
1/2--Double Up (good to firm)
2/3--Goldream (good & good to firm)
3/15--Medicean Man (3 x good)
1/6--Move In Time (good)
2/6--Sole Power (2 x good)
1/1--Acapulca (good to firm)
4.20: Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last fifteen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany made Frankel pull out all the stops five years ago. Aidan saddles THE GURKHA this time around with outstanding claims, the Galileo colt seeming to be perfectly happy on this type of ground with a deal of improvement yet to be forthcoming, this being only his fourth assignment. AWTAAD and GALILEO GOLD are the obvious dangers.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 17 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 17 years was an 8/1 chance. 14 of the 19 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (was not the case last year though in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of MILL SPRINGS, WOLFCATCHER and MOSCATO into the equation. Eight of the last ten winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby SILVER CONCORDE additionally enters the overnight mix. Utilising this method for the last two years provided winners at 12/1 & 5/1* for the service. Looking back at last year's result again after 'knocking' my own trends, I note that four and five-year-olds finished in the frame running off 9-7 when sent off at 25/1 & 8/1, whereby the stats were not far off the mark.
Favourite factor: Eight of the nineteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last seventeen years (two winners). Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed. I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post. I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps. My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race. With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 20/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective.
Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:
1/1--Pique Sous (good to firm)
1/1--Mill Springs (good)
5.35: February and March foals (see stats below) have outstanding win and place records in this event during the last 13 years and leading relevant entries this year include DRAFTED and KANANEE. That said, BIG CITY DREAMING should prove to be difficult to kick out of the frame, whilst BATAASH is regarded as the long priced outsider to consider in the field.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst ten of the eighteen market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed toteplacepot positions.
'First three in the betting’ in the last 13 years:
5 winners—7 placed—28 unplaced
Starting price stats in the last 13 years:
3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-2 unplaced
Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—32 unplaced
8/1 or more: 7 winners—-18 placed-—188 unplaced
Foaling dates in the last 13 years:
January: No winners & 1 place
February: 5 winners & 8 places
March: 5 winners & 9 places
April: 2 winners & 7 places
May: 1 winner & 1 place
Trainers with three of more runners on the Royal Ascot card on Tuesday:
7--David O'Meara (stats of 5/93 during the last five years at Ascot)
6--Charlie Appleby (8.72)
4--John Gosden (28/164)
4--Richard Hannon (15/176)
4--Aidan O'Brien (14/106)
4--Roger Varian (15/88)
3--Clive Cox (6/97)
3--Charlie Hills (6/109)
3--Saeed Bin Suroor (17/115)
3--Wesley A Ward (5/19)
2--Andrew Balding (11/165)
2--Simon Crisford (1/6)
2--Mark Johnston (22/230)
2--Ger Lyons (0/14)
2--Willie Mullins (4/14)
2--Johnny Murtagh (1/9)
2--Joseph Patrick O'Brien (---)
2--Hugo Palmer (2/31)
2--Kevin Ryan (5/74)
2--Ian Williams (3/30)
+ 45 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
106 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £78.20 (6 favourites - 4 winners & 2 unplaced)
Stratford: £4.10 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 placed)
Thirsk: £171.50 £6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Five year Royal Ascot overview relating to the juvenile races at the meeting (five year study):
Trainers who saddled more than one two-year-old winner at Royal Ascot:
5 winners--Aidan O'Brien (20/1-12/1-5/1-4/1*-5/2*) - 5 beaten favourites
3 winners--Wesley A Ward (4/1-7/2*-5/3*)
2--John Gosden (10/1 & 7/4*)
2 winners--Richard Hannon (8/1 & 4/1*) - 3 beaten favourites
2 winners - Kevin Ryan (14/1 & 6/1)
Other trainers who saddled more than one beaten favourite in juvenile races during the period: