ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 20
Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last six years on Day One:
2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)
2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)
2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)
2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £511.95
39 favourites - 13 winners - 9 placed 17 unplaced
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 11 (Mutakayyef), 3 (Deauville) & 6 (Ennadd)
Leg 2 (3.05): 11 (Murillo), 3 (Brother Bear) & 18 (Zaman)
Leg 3 (3.40): 12 (Signs Of Blessing), 16 (Marsha) & 17 (Priceless)
Leg 4 (4.20): 2 (Churchill) & 1 (Barney Roy)
Leg 5 (5.00): 5 (Yorkidding), 7 (Magic Circle), & 6 (Cleonte)
Leg 6 (5.35): 10 (Declarationofpeace), 24 (Nookta Sound) & 18 (Roussel)
Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes
Please scroll down to the foot of the column for overviews
2.30: There are 104 runners to sift through on Tuesday though if you believe that is a tough task, Wednesday's 123 potential starters suggest that bookmakers will need assistance to carry home the cash on the second day of the five day meeting! Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 19 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of Ribchester but as an odds on favourite who has yet to really convince that racing on ground this quick will suit, I will look elsewhere for the winner. Having snared the last two Placepots, I am in fighting mood and if we can successfully leave Ribchester out of the mix here, we would be on our way to share a dividend which would be worth winning. Four-year-old DEAUVILLE demands attention with Aidan O’Brien having won the race three times since he first lifted the prize back in 2006. Ryan Moore’s mount is a four time winner who has finished ‘in the three’ nine times via twelve assignments which makes his 14/1 price look attractive. MUTAKAYYEF was only beaten ‘three parts’ in the Woodbine Mile two starts back and a repeat of that effort would be good enough to go very close here under his preferred conditions. I have not completely given up on ENNADD at this level and those of you looking for a big priced winner could do worse than consider Roger Varian’s four-year-old King’s Best raider.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have scored in the last twenty years, whilst ten market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:
1/2—Dutch Connection (good to firm)
1/2--Mutakayyef (good to firm)
3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 21 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his March foal MURILLO. Scat Daddy offspring can disappoint at time and that was the case at the first time of asking regarding the selection, though that tame effort was soon forgotten when winning in a hack canter at Tipperary next time up. Connections might have most to fear from BROTHER BEAR and ZAMAN at the business end of the contest. Jessica Harrington has enjoyed plenty of success at the Cheltenham and Punchestown Festivals already this year and a win for BROTHER BEAR could cap a wonderful few months for the popular Irish trainer. February foal BROTHER BEAR represents the month which boasts the best recent record in the ‘Coventry’ from a foaling perspective.
Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of course winners in the Coventry Stakes:
1/1—Aqabah (good to firm)
'First three in the betting’ in the last 14 years:
11 winners—8 placed—23 unplaced.
'Starting prices stats in the last 14 years:
7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-29 unplaced
15/2 or more: Two winners—-18 placed-—166 unplaced
28/1 or more: No winners-—4 placed—-82 unplaced
Foaling stats in the last 14 years:
January: 1 winner & 7 places
February: 6 winners & 7 places
March: 4 winners & 7 places
April: 3 winners & 5 places
May: No winners & 2 places
3.40: Nine of the last fourteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders though the home contingent look set to rule on this occasion. I cannot pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done. I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through. Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal. Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess! PRICELESS looks to be the win and place call having won well at Haydock last time up. Clive Cox took the race last year with Profitable under different conditions, though the Invincible Spirit representative has won on ground this fast in the past. That said, Profitable looks held by SIGNS OF BLESSING via the form book, whilst MARSHA looks well in with Washington DC via her Newmarket win in the ‘Palace House’ after which, Sir Mark Prescott’s grin could be seen a mile away! Mark rates his filly very highly.
Favourite factor: Two of the last ten favourites have won, whilst 11 of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions going back further in time.
Record of course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:
1/1—Alpha Delphini (good to firm)
2/3--Goldream (good & good to firm)
3/19--Medicean Man (3 x good)
1/3—Washington DC (good to firm)
1/1—Lady Aurelia (soft)
4.20: Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last sixteen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany made Frankel pull out all the stops six years ago. Aidan saddles CHURCHILL and it would take a personal best from BARNEY ROY to lower his colours I’ll wager, whilst this pair should draw clear of their rivals inside the furlong marker. THUNDER SNOW deserves his chance, though the fitting of cheek-pieces at this level is off-putting to say the least. Guineas winners have a great record in this event and CHURCHILL is taken to beat BARNEY ROY accordingly.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 18 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 18 years was an 8/1 chance. 15 of the 20 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Record of course winners in the St James’s Palace Stakes:
1/1—Church (good to soft)
5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last two years), statistics which bring in the likes of YORKIDDING, MAGIC CIRCLE and CLEONTE into the equation. Nine of the last eleven winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby THOMAS HOBSON additionally enters the overnight mix.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 20 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the last eighteen years (two winners). Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed. I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post. I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps. My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race. With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 20/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective.
Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:
1/3--Yorkidding (good to firm)
1/3--Oceane (good to firm)
5.35: ROUSSEL could prove to be the pick of the home based runners, though DECLARATIONOFPEACE, NOOKTA SOUND and ELIZABETH DARCY all look set to figure prominently in a typically tough first day finale.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 20 years, whilst ten of the nineteen market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed toteplacepot positions.
'First three in the betting’ in the last 14 years:
5 winners—7 placed—31 unplaced
Starting price stats in the last 14 years:
3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-3 unplaced
Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—35 unplaced
8/1 or more: 8 winners—-20 placed-—203 unplaced
Foaling dates in the last 14 years:
January: No winners & 1 place
February: 5 winners & 8 places
March: 6 winners & 9 places
April: 2 winners & 8 places
May: 1 winner & 2 places
Trainers with three of more runners on the Royal Ascot card on Tuesday – followed by the relevant number of winners at the meeting last year:
9 runners—Aidan O’Brien (7 winners in 2016)
6—Richard Fahey (1)
4—Charlie Appleby (1)
4—Wesley A Ward (1)
3—Robwert Cowell (2)
3—Clive Cox (2)
3—Alan King (1)
Total of 104 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from the ‘away meetings’ last year:
Beverley: £8.40 (6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed)
Brighton: £68.10 (6 favourites - 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)
Stratford: £1,517.00 (6 favourites - 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Thirsk: £825.00 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)