LEICESTER – JUNE 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £1,676.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (6.10): 5 (Classic Pursuit, 2 (Vimy Ridge) & 8 (Generalyse)
Leg 2 (6.40): 1 (Falmouth Light), 3 (Maksab) & 2 (Jazirat)
Leg 3 (7.10): 7 (Alnasi), 8 (Hope Against Hope), 10 (Delirium) & 11 (Clear As A Bell)
Leg 4 (7.40): 1 (Flying Fantasy) & 5 (Arithmetic)
Leg 5 (8.10): 2 (Pioneering) & 3 (Valley Of Rocks)
Leg 6 (8.45): 2 (Infinity) & 1 (Shining Romeo)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
6.10: Sarah Brotherton’s four mounts (via as many renewals to date) have produced two victories and one bronze medal effort, albeit the latter named ride was all in vain from a Placepot viewpoint in a ‘short field’ contest. Sarah has been booked by Michael Appleby to ride CLASSIC PURSUIT with definite claims on this occasion. Alan Bailey saddled his last runner to winning effect at Lingfield on Saturday whereby VIMY RIDGE is added into the mix alongside GENERALYSE who has won three of his five assignments at this venue. It’s worth noting that Coral have CLASSIC PURSUIT as their 9/4 favourite for the race, with Paddy Power seemingly out on a limb at 100/30. Each way investors have already been dealt a blow with the eighth runner have been withdrawn. New readers might want to know that term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives, this being one such event via the non-runner.
Favourite factor: Only one of the five market leaders has claimed a Placepot position thus far when doing so by winning its relevant event as one of the 11/4 joint favourites three years ago.
Record of the course winners in the opening event:
1/4—Bronze Beau (good)
3/5—Generalyse (2 x good & 1 good to firm)
6.40: Just the four runners go to post for this Novice event which might take plenty of winning and not only because Mark Johnston’s impressive Sandown winner FALMOUTH LIGHT has been declared. Mick Channon has saddled four of his last twelve runners to winning effect and his Nakfi raider MAKSAN ran well to only finish three lengths adrift on the winner on debut. In receipt of six pounds here, there might not be too much daylight between the pair, notwithstanding Charlie Appleby’s Dark Angel newcomer JAZIRAT, though the declaration of a hood at the first time of asking reduces interest to a fashion. The fourth raider Rhosneigr holds a Derby entry, whilst a Friday option at Doncaster is still open for connections to consider.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.
7.10: Three-year-olds invariably get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage handicaps, with vintage representatives on offer at 1/2 before the form book is consulted on this occasion. At first glance, the 5/1 odds marked up in the trade press against the name of HOPE AGAINST HOPE looks skinny to say the least with 16/1 available in a few places at the time of writing but that said, Mark Johnston’s 50/1 Nursery winner has been trimmed into 12/1 by plenty of firms as I write this column. It remains to be seen how well the Dark Angel representative runs at the first time of asking this season, though any further support in the lead up to flag fall could be worth heeding. Layers have been initially hesitant about offering the 33/1 trade press odds about DELIRIUM who is a top priced 20/1 chance this morning. Ed de Giles has his team in form (yet again) and although held by Twiggy via a recent contest, cheek-pieces and a second run of the season here might narrow the gap between the pair under revised terms. More logical winners via the form book include each way types such as ALNASI and CLEAR AS A BELL.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far via just the three renewals.
Record of course winner in the third contest on the card:
1/3—The Dukkerer (good to firm)
1/7—Scent Of Power (good to firm)
7.40: Another fairly difficult short field race to assess and I hold the notion that the Placepot dividend could be worth winning at Leicester on Tuesday evening, as was very much the case twelve months ago. There are plenty of vulnerable favourites on the card from my viewpoint, though I would not discourage investors from becoming involved in FLYING FANTASY this time around, especially with Silvestre De Sousa having been booked to ride. Only Alistair Rawlinson has ridden more winners for Michael Appleby this season, with Silvestre boasting a 19% strike rate for the trainer via a dozen winners for the yard. Any rain would aid and abet the chance of MISS INGA SOCK, though ARITHMETIC offers better value for money at around the 6/1 mark from my viewpoint, especially as four-year-olds have won the last three contests, with ARITHMETIC being the lone vintage representative this time around. Although Ruth Carr is not firing in quite so many winners as was the case earlier in the year, four of her last seven runners have finished in the frame.
Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions without winning their respective events to date.
Record of course winner in the fourth race:
1/3--Tyrsal (good to firm)
8.10: The superb strike rate for William Haggas had to fall at some stage of the season and with only one of the yard’s last eighteen runners having prevailed, the 9/4 price about ALSHIBAA fails to light my blue touch paper in what appears to be a competitive event. That said, we have to acknowledge that two thirds of the said number of William’s recent runners were plying their trade at Ascot last week where winners are difficult to come by, especially when a certain Irishman has his eye on the prize money! PIONEERING represents David O’Meara who is beginning to saddle a few winners again and the ex-Charlie Appleby inmate could make the frame, with a similar comment also applying to Mark Johnston’s consistent three-year-old VALLEY OF ROCKS. Aside from an interest in our favourite wager, I would not play this race with your money.
Favourite factor: For all that I have intimated that this is a tough race to call via the analysis, I should point out that four of the eight renewals have been won by market leaders, whilst seven gold medallists were sent off at a top price of 5/2 during the study period.
8.45: Five-year-olds lead the four-year-olds 3-2 in recent years, whilst the last four winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1. The top pair in the handicap could take plenty of kicking out of the frame here, with good ground winner INFINITY just preferred to SHINING ROMEO unless any significant rain falls in the Oadby area of Leicester during the course of the day. Those seeking an alternative each way option could do worse than consider the merits of Star Ascending who is not ground dependent at all.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eight favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.
Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Shining Romeo (good to soft)
1/9—The Lock Master (soft)
1/2—Touch The Clouds (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Michael Appleby (0/11)
4—Mark Johnston (5/15 – Profit of 7 points)
3—Richard Price (No previous runners this season)
2—Tony Carroll (2/13 – Slight profit)
2—Tom Easterby (0/1)
2—Barry Leavy (0/2)
2—David O’Meara (0/4)
2—Joseph Tuite (0/2)
+ 38 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
60 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Beverley: £31.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Brighton: £96.80 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Newton Abbot: £122.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced