BRIGHTON - JUNE 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £2,868.60 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Brighton:
Leg 1 (2.15): 2 (Arizona Snow), 4 (Burauq) & 5 (Titus Secret)
Leg 2 (2.45): 2 (Essaka) & 1 (Tasaaboq)
Leg 3 (3.15): 5 (Hepplewhite) & 9 (Fashion Parade)
Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Solveig's Song), 9 (Fitzwilliam) & 5 (Occult)
Leg 5 (4.15): 7 (Palisade), 6 (Hint Of Grey) & 5 (Cliff Edge)
Leg 6 (4.45): 6 (Sylvette) & 5 (Bloodsweatandtears)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.15: Four-year-olds have won four (of seven) contests and it is a little surprising to find that just three of this year's twelve declarations potentially represent the vintage, albeit there is a second division of the race half an hour later. The trio are listed in order of preference at the time of writing as ARIZONA SNOW, BURAUQ and TITUS SECRET who scored over course and distance on good to soft ground last time out. If the trend goes base over apex on this occasion, ASSERTIVE AGENT strikes yours truly as the potential joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Three of the eight favourites have finished in the frame, with two of the relevant horses having won their respective races via seven contests to date.
Record of course winners in the opening event:
1/4--Arizona Sniow (good)
1/2--Tiotus Secret (good to soft)
2.45: ESSAKA appears to have the edge over Frangarry and (particularly) Overstone Lass as far as the trio of four-year-old's are concerned in heat two of the opening contest. Tony Carroll's Equiano raider is a dual winner who has scored over this switchback circuit and should prove good enough to figure prominently again in this grade/company. Connections might have most to fear from TASAABOQ (especially with Josephine Gordon's potential three pound claim kicking in) and possibly HEATHFIELD PARK who is offered up an as alternative each way option.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stats apply.
Record of course winner in the second event on the card:
3.15: I opted for last year's 11/4 winner when opposing the 5/6 market leader and although HEPPLEWHITE is the tentative choice this time around, Tom Marquand's mount enters my 'last chance saloon', having finished second on his last five starts. If there are dangers here that could be responsible for Robert Eddery's raider securing a sixth successive silver medal, I guess that EX LOVER and FASHION PARADE head the potential list of dangers.
Favourite factor: Both favourites had secured toteplacepot positions by finishing second in 'short field' events before the 5/6 market leader prevailed in 2014. However, last year's 5/6 favourite missed out on a Placepot position. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.
3.45: The result in this event was partly responsible for the great Placepot dividend last year, when four non runners emerged with units being transferred to the 6/4 favourite which finished out of the frame. The 'Quadpot' also produced a great dividend accordingly (£792.10). Races for four-year-olds and upwards are fraught with danger from my viewpoint, given that 'scope for improvement' can be described as a 'null and void factor' in many a contest! This appears to be the case here though with eight 'junior' runners among the (unlucky for some) thirteen declarations, I'll opt for three of their number, namely FITWILLIAM, OCCULT and SOLVEIG'S SONG. The latter named Steve Woodman raider is a dual course and distance winner who comes to the races in good heart, with Megan Nicholls potentially taking off a useful five pounds from the (top weight) burden.
Favourite factor: Just one of the five favourites (silver medallist) has finished in the frame (exact science) thus far.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
2/8--Solveig's Song (good to firm & good to soft)
8/33--Megalala (4 x good to soft - 2 x soft - 1 x good - 1 x good to soft)
4.15: Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten contests whilst 10 of the last 12 winners have carried weights of nine stones or more. Unfortunately, the trio of junior raiders fail to match the weight trends but for all that, PALISADE, CLIFF EDGE and HINT OF GREY make more appeal than horses further up the handicap the pick of which should prove to be ROY ROCKET, who has recorded all four of his four victories to date at this venue.
Favourite factor: 10 of the 16 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (four winners). The biggest priced recorded winner to date was sent off at just 8/1 two years ago.
Record of course winners in the fifth contest:
4/9--Roy Rocket (3 x good to firm & 1 x good to soft - all four wins in career gained at Brighton)
2/4--Ifan (2 x good to firm)
1/1--Hint Of Grey (good)
4.45: SYLVETTE will hopefully prove to be the best of Roger Varian's three runners on the card in a Placepot finale which should not prove difficult to win. Still a maiden after seven assignments, Roger's Selkirk representative should find some juice in the ground which tends to favour Selkirk raiders, whilst Roger could hardly have found an easier opportunity for his charge. Bill Knight has been saddled his fair share of winners of late and BLOODSWEATANDTEARS could be another of them, whilst DUKE OF NORTH completes my trio against the other eight contenders.
Favourite factor: The four favourites (of six in total) to have secured toteplacepot positions did so by winning their respective events at odds of 5/1-6/4-11/8-4/7.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
4/25--Hawk Moth (3 x good & 1 x good to firm - last 4 wins have been gained at Brighton)
1/1--Castle Talbot (good to firm)
3/12--Bloodsweatandtears (good/good to soft/soft - three time course and distance winner)
2/10--Just Isla (2 x firm)
3/19--Byrd In Hand (good to firm/soft/heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Brighton card on Tuesday:
5--Tony Carroll (2/13 at Brighton this season - winners at 9/2* & 2/1*)
4--Richard Hanon (6/15 - winners at 9/1-6/1-7/2-7/2-11/8*-4/11*)
3--John Bridger (2/11 - winners at 13/2 & 9/2)
3--Mick Channon (4/19 - winners at 8/1-11/2-5/1-5/1)
3--Roger Varian (0/2)
2--George Baker (1/8 - winner at 4/1**)
2--Milton Bradley (0/6)
2--Paddy Butler (0/5)
2--David Dennis (0/2)
2--Rob Eddery (0/2)
2--John Gallagher (0/7)
2--Ron Harris (0/9)
2--Shaun Harris (1/6 - winner at 4/1)
2--Dean Ivory (2/7 - winners at 9/4* & 2/1*)
2--Gay Kelleway (2/8 - winners at 5/1 & 10/3)
2--David Lanigan (---)
2--George Margarson (0/2)
2--Phil McEntee (2/8 - winners at 2/1** & 2/1)
2--Malcolm Saunders (1/4 - winner at 14/1)
2--John Spearing (3/10 - winners at 7/1-5/1-7/2**)
2--William Stone (0/1)
2--Tim Vaughan (1/2 - winner at 10/3)
+ 35 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
87 declared runners
Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £ 141.60 - 8 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced
Hamilton: £10.60 - 7 favourites - 3 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced
Stratford: £32.60 - 5 winners & 2 unplaced
The average Placepot dividend at Brighton this season stands at £497.32 (ten meetings). 84 favourites have contested 71 races this season - 30 winners - 18 placed - 36 unplaced (exact science)