FONTWELL – JUNE 6
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £23.20 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fontwell:
Leg 1 (5.50): 3 (Kayflin), 1 (Dites Rien) & 6 (Work)
Leg 2 (6.20): 1 (Black Corton) & 3 (Remind Me Later)
Leg 3 (6.50): 1 (Steel Bob) & 7 (Tempestsstaefloresco)
Leg 4 (7.20): 5 (Highbury High) & 6 (Mille Nautique)
Leg 5 (7.50): 1 (Yukon Delta), 7 (Storm Alert) & 2 (Bostin)
Leg 6 (8.20): 3 (Day Of Roses), 1 (Golden Investment) & 2 (De Blacksmith)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.50: The Placepot treated us well last night at Windsor thanks (as anticipated) by the non-runners working out well for us and the same scenario could be in place at Fontwell tonight. A decent dividend could be yours for the taking if you can successfully omit favourites (especially when lots of non-runners are reported) which finish out of the frame as suggested at Windsor. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that KAYFLIN should not mind softening ground though her record of 1/26 to date suggests a Placepot investment is the only way to play the nine-year-old mare. WORK and DITES RIEN are added to the mix.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (4/1 & Evens) winners.
Record of the course winner in the first race:
6.20: Mark Pitman has won with two of his last four runners whereby Spoilt Rotten is not totally overlooked at the time of writing, though BLACK CORTON should dictate ahead of REMIND ME LATER via all know form lines. Paul Nicholls (Black Corton) has won with three of his last six inmates and his favourites at this venue generally perform well. Paul boasts a 36% strike rate at Fontwell during the last five years, though 24 winners have produced just one point of level stake profit which confirms that short priced winners have evolved. Don’t get too carried away however, as the only beaten (1/4) favourite in this event to date was saddled by….Paul Nicholls.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions having won their respective events.
6.50: Harry Fry has been saddling runners sparingly of late though eight of his last nineteen raiders have won, stats which have produced six points of level stake profit. Harry has declared one runner on the card, with STEEL BOB seemingly only having TEMPESTSTATEFLORESCO to beat. The 13/8 offer in a place about Harry’s only runner on Tuesday makes some appeal with the ground looking to be more in his favour than would be the case for the projected odds on chance if the heavens opened.
Favourite factor: Both (4/6 & 15/8) favourites have prevailed thus far.
7.20: HIGHBURY HIGH has finished ‘in the three’ in nine of his last eleven starts and with rain causing no problems too connections, Neil Mulholland looks set to saddle another winner from my viewpoint. Tom Scudamore has only ridden more winners for four other trainers than for Neil during the last five years and the combination should take some stopping this evening. Alan King has his team in good order as is invariably the case, whereby MILLE NAUTIQUE is preferred to SONNEOFPRESENTING, especially under these (soft) conditions.
Favourite factor: Five of the last seven favourites have obliged, though the other two (even money & 2/1) market leaders finished out of the frame during the period.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:
2/6—Vikekhal (2 x good)
1/1—Morgan’s Bay (good to soft)
7.50: This event could rubber stamp a decent Placepot dividend and I’m opting for two of the bigger priced runners in the hope that the trend (see favourite stats) continues. YUKON DELTA and STORM ALERT are the horses in question, though with all three winners have carried 11-9 or more to victory to date, I’ll add in form BOSTIN into the equation.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites (via three renewals) have secured Placepot positions though that said, two of the three gold medallists were returned at odds of 12/1 & 8/1 alongside a successful 5/2 market leader.
Record of the course winners in the event:
1/5—Yukon Delta (good)
1/2—Storm Alert (good to soft)
8.20: DAY OF ROSES won’t mind deteriorating conditions should that scenario unfold and the projected long odds on chance have too many guns here for GOLDEN INVESTMENT and DE BLACKSMITH. Having enjoyed the sport for well over fifty years now, I’m too long in the tooth to ignore the possibility of a falsely run race, potentially turning the race into a shambles from a punter’s perspective. That could just turn things in our favour in terms of the eventual Placepot dividend.
Favourite factor: Five of the seven winners have been sent off at a top price of 7/2, statistics which include three successful market leaders. That said, four renewals have passed since the last jolly completed the treble on behalf of favourites, though six of the seven market leaders in total have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/5—De Blacksmith (soft)
1/3—Day Of Roses (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fontwell card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
6 runners—Gary Moore (0/7)
3—Laura Mongan (No previous runners)
3—Oliver Sherwood (0/1)
4—Neil Mulholland (1/2 – slight loss)
2—Kim Bailey (No runners)
2—Alan King (2/2 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (0/2)
2—Lydia Richards (0/2)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
44 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell: £295.20 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
The other meetings today have no history, presumably planned to fill in the space created by the Royal Ascot meeting this year which is being staged a week later than usual according to my records.