LUDLOW - MARCH 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
£894.90 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)
Thursday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (2.20): 11 (Autumn Rain), 12 (Miss Williams) & 8 (Mansion)
Leg 2 (2.50): 1 (Some Are Lucky), 4 (Kap Jazz) & 2 (Colin’s Brother)
Leg 3 (3.25): 4 (Mixchievous), 5 (Baron Du Plessis) & 3 (Aliandy)
Leg 4 (4.00): 3 (Roc D’Apsis) & 6 (Marcillac)
Leg 5 (4.35): 3 (Two Swallows) & 1 (Still Believing)
Leg 6 (5.05): 5 (Persian Snow) & 6 (Colbert Station)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Five-year-olds have won eight of the last thirteen renewals and with MANSION and (possibly) AUTUMN RAIN among three relevant raiders, Placepot positions could be gained. Six-year-old MISS WILLIAMS might prove to be the joker in the pack however. Aidan Coleman sits only one behind Richard Johnson in terms of the riders who have ridden the most winners for Charlie Longsdonthis season, with Aidan boasting a slight better (21%) strike rate, whilst producing 13 points of level stake profits for the team into the bargain.
Favourite factor: 13 of the 14 favourites have finished in the frame (five winners). Tread carefully however, as the 1/3 market leader missed out on a gold rosette eight years ago when favourites were on a four-timer in the contest, notwithstanding the facts that last year’s jolly was turned over at odds of 4/9
2.50: All four runners have genuine claims on the best of their respective form lines, so much so that I will be including the quartet in my Placepot permutation, hoping that the horse with the least number of units prevail. For the record, the four runners are listed in marginal order of preference as SOME ARE LCUKY, KAP JAZZ, COLIN’S BROTHER and VOTE OF CONFIDENCE. Having now formed the rest of the analysis, I am dropping Vote Of Confidence from the permutation given his preference for decent ground, conditions that are very unlikely to be in evidence.
Favourite factor: Both (5/6 & 5/4) favourites had prevailed before the next 5/2 joint market leaders were beaten, albeit one of them claimed a Placepot position. Last year’s 5/2 favourite finished out with the washing.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/3—Colin’s Brother (good to soft)
3.25: Eleven of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 11-0 or less and both of this year’s ‘qualifiers’ make some appeal from those down towards the bottom of the handicap. Six-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals of this event and vintage raiders are 1/4 to extend the good run before the form book is taken into account. MIXCHIEVOUS and BARON DU PLESSIS boast ticks in both boxes. ALIANDY is the other potential winner in the field from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Six of the fourteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:
1/3—Seymour Star (soft)
4.00: Eight-year-olds have won eight of the last 16 renewals (vintage raiders have won five of the last nine contests) whilst securing a 1-2-3 six years ago before landing a successful forecast in 2013. 12 of the last 16 winners (including 10 of the last 12) have carried weights of 10-12 or more and taking the stats and facts into account, ROC D’APSIS and MARCILLAC are listed in order of preference as my chosen trio, despite the fact that the latter named Venetia Williams raider carries 16 ounces less than the weight trend demands.
Favourite factor: 11 of the 15 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners during the last 12 years. 10 of the last 11 winners have scored at a top price of 9/1.
Record of the course winners in the four event:
2/6—Gallery Exhibition (2 x good to soft)
1/3—Valleyofmilan (good to soft)
4.35: TWO SWALLOWS boasts ticks in just about all the boxes here, including the seven pound claimer (Alex Ferguson) in the saddle which is something of a steal from what we have witnessed this season. STILL BELIEVING can be relied upon to offer a challenge somewhere up the home straight I’ll wager, though the potential concession of ten pounds is a tough ask.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have finished out of the money thus far.
Record of the course winner in the fifth race:
3/13—Still Believing (2 x heavy & good)
4.50: PERSIAN SNOW is difficult to oppose, with COLBERT STATION just as likely to occupy the runner up berth. Philip Hobbs and Jonjo O’Neill saddle the two horses respectively, the only leading ‘professional’ trainers in the line-up. My Placepot plans went base over apex in a similar Placepot finale earlier in the week, though this no opposition to this pair providing they negotiate the obstacles safely. The only worry are the favourite stats below…
Favourite factor: Six of the eight market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science) in the toteplacepot finale, statistics which includes four winners. The biggest priced gold medallist had been an 8/1 chance before the 2015 forecast positions were secured by horses sent off at 28/1 & 50/1. The Tote Exacta dividend paid £730.90 to a one pound stake. Twelve months on, a 50/1 winner emerged ahead of a 12/1 chance, the Exacta paying £678.40!
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Persian Snow (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ludlow card on Thursday – followed by their five year ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:
7 winners—Venetia Williams (1/12 – loss of 8 points)
3—Tom Weston (0/7)
2—Kim Bailey (1/14 – loss of 8 points)
2—Tom George (1/10 – loss of 10 points)
2—Charlie Longsdon (1/14 – loss of 12 points)
2—Donald McCain (1/10 – level profit/loss this season)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (5/24 – loss of 10 points)
2—Evan Williams (2/32 – loss of 24 points)
+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
53 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Taunton: £16.70 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 placed
Chelmsford: £3,156.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Newcastle: No all-weather racing at Newcastle was staged until last May