EXETER – MARCH 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £138.50 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Paddocks Lounge) & 7 (Taurian)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Pure Vision), 1 (West Torr) & 9 (Barney Of Tyanee)
Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Magical Thomas), 8 (Straits Of Messina) & 7 (Steel City)
Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Drumlee Sunset) & 1 (Clan Des Obeaux)
Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Kap Jazz) & 4 (Bindon Hill)
Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Days Of Roses), 1 (Zerochiel) & 2 (Kapgarde King)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Richard Johnson’s record for trainer Sophie Leech this season stands at 4/8 in the hurdles sector and the bandwagon could roll on here with Sophie having declared PADDOCKS LOUNGE with an obvious chance. TAURIAN is equally obvious in terms of the man danger to the selection, with Ian Williams having saddled four of his last eight runners to winning effect. GOLAN DANCER is a lot tighter than the 11/2 quote in the trade press, though that is mainly because of the ‘dead eight’ scenario in place at the time of writing whereby layers do not want to offer half decent place terms about the nine-year-old.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have finished in the frame (three winners) to date, whilst 27 of 30 available toteplacepot places have been claimed by horses starting at 10/1 or less. Only three of the 58 horses starting at 11/1 or more has troubled the judge (exact science).
2.30: Six-year-olds have won four of the eights contests, with vintage representatives on offer at 2/1 this time around before the form book in taken into consideration. The pick of the trio of relevant raiders will hopefully prove to be PURE VISION from the Anthony Honeyball stable which has secured two winners and three silver medallists via his last six runners. The 5/1 quote in the trade press is only available ‘in a place’ at the time of writing, with plenty of layers as tight as 3/1 about the Milan gelding. WEST TORR and each way option BARNEY OF TYANEE are the other six-year-olds in the field.
Favourite factor: Only one (7/2) favourite has obliged via eight renewals, five of which have been claimed by horses returned in double figures, ranging between 10/1 & 25/1.
Course record of the course winner in the second race:
1/6—St Dominick (heavy)
3.05: Horses carrying 11-4 or more have won four of the five contests whereby the bottom four horses in the handicap are eliminated from my enquiries. These stats would normally help (which they still do to a fashion) but with the 14 represented trainers offering aggregate stats of 9/127 (7.1% strike rate) of late, confidence in only conspicuous by its absence. Upwards and onward by suggesting that MAGICAL THOMAS, STRAITS OF MESSINA and (possibly) STEEL CITY should run as well as any from the ‘superior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far via four renewals without winning their respective events.
Course record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:
1/2—Steel Express (heavy)
1/5—Baccalaureate (good to soft)
3.40: Eleven of the twelve winners carried a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst seven-year-olds have claimed six of the last nine renewals, statistics which point in the direction of DRUMLEE SUNSET, notwithstanding his 100% record at the track three assignments to date. 5/2 is freely available at the time of writing in what amounts to a ‘match’, given that Oscars Way is hopelessly outclassed here, whereby the other pair would surely have to fail to complete the course to enable the bottom weight to prevail. The problem for the ‘good thing’ according to the stats is the declaration of CLAN DES OBEAUX who is rated 14 pounds higher according to the official assessor. I very much doubt that fourteen lengths will split the pair at the line however.
Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen favourites (via twelve renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners), whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at 11/1 three years ago when Freckle Faced (first named horse in my analysis) extended weight trends at a decent price.
Course record of the course winner in the fourth race:
3/3—Drumlee Sunset (2 x good & good to soft)
4.15: It’s difficult to envisage both KAP JAZZ and BINDON HILL failing to bring their improving form to the table in this grade. Aside from Tjongejonge, this pair are the only runners that I would not want to lay in the contest though equally, choosing between them is a problem which is why cash will be safely locked away for another day from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.
Course record of the course winners in the fifth contest:
1/5—Binden Hill (soft)
1/1—Court By Surprise (good to soft)
1/1—Themanfrom Minella (good to soft)
4.50: Eight of the nine winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more which suggests that ZEROCHIEL could score, especially as seven-year-olds have won three of the last seven contests. KAPGARDE KING is the other horse at the top of the handicap to catch the eye. If the trends are to be breached on this occasion however, DAYS OF ROSES would have to be the call, despite the 11/1 odds which are in place this morning. All three inmates from the Jeremy Scott yard have won during the last fortnight which makes the eight-year-old an each way play from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners. The biggest priced winner to date scored at 11/1 twelve months ago.
Course record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/8—Absolutely Bygones (heavy)
1/3—Knight Of the Realm (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Philip Hobbs (5/35 – loss of 23 points)
4—David Pipe (3/37 – loss of 22 points)
3—Kim Bailey (1/14 – loss of 9 points)
3—David Dennis (1/8 – loss of 5 points)
3—Jimmy Frost (1/24 – loss of 12 points)
2—Linda Blackford (0/3)
2—Robin Dickin (0/2)
2—Polly Gundry (0/1)
2—Emma Lavelle (2/7 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Nick Mitchell (1/8 – loss of 1 point)
2—Seamus Mullins (0/6)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/16)
2—Ben Pauling (1/3 – slight loss)
2—Jackie Du Plessis (0/11)
2—Ian Williams (0/1)
2—Richard Woollacott (0/15)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
69 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Wetherby: £380.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced
Southwell: £248.10 – 9 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced