EXETER – MARCH 22
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £129.70 (7 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced
Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £610.32
Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £843.97
Average Exeter NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £407.32 (4 meetings)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.00): 10 (Mr Caffrey) & 11 (Perfect Summer)
Leg 2 (2.30): 7 (Better Days), 1 (Auckland De Re) & 6 (Taroum)
Leg 3 (3.05): 4 (Lamblord), 3 (Kingussie) & 1 (Quieto Sol)
Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Wizards Bridge), 2 (Port Melon) & 1 (Henryville)
Leg 5 (4.10): 2 (Just A Par) & 3 (Howlongisafoot)
Leg 6 (4.45): 7 (Free Of Charge), 5 (Mrsrobin) & 6 (Somerset Lias)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: Four-year-olds have secured four of the last five contests and MR CAFFREY stands out from the 'three strong' crowd on this occasion. Ian Williams boasts a 24% strike rate in the NH sector this month and many punters will latch on to PERFECT SUMMER accordingly. MOUNT SHAMSAN completes my trio against the other ten contenders.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten favourites have finished in the frame (two winners) to date, whilst 24 of 27 available toteplacepot places have been claimed by horses starting at 10/1 or less. Only three of the 49 horses starting at 11/1 or more has troubled the judge (exact science).
2.30: Horses carrying 11-4 or more have won the three contests whereby the bottom four horses (two via jockey claims) in the handicap are eliminated from my enquiries. Only David Pipe and Paul Nicholls are 'mixing it' with Nigel Twiston-Davies at the top of the training ranks this month (excluding the Irish maestro of course) and Nigel is represented by BETTER DAYS here with a leading chance from my viewpoint. Others to consider include AUCKLAND DE RE from the top of the weights alongside my each way shout TAROUM.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far via three renewals without winning their respective events.
3.05: Division two of the previous event produces a short list of course winner LAMBLORD, KINGUSSIE and QUIETO SOL via the relevant weight trend. I would overlook the low mark of BROWN BEAR if money came in for the Nick Gifford raider, the stable have won this event two years ago.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the previous race on the card whereby the same stats apply.
Exeter record of course winners in the third event on the card:
3.40: Ten of the twelve winners carried a minimum weight of eleven stones, whilst seven-year-old have claimed six of the last eight renewals, statIstics which point in the direction of WIZARDS BRIDGE who is the only runner in the field possessing ticks in both of the trend boxes. The fact that the lone seven-year-old in the line-up represents the vintage which comes into the race on a four-timer is quoted at 14/1 in the trade press adds interest to proceedings. The two horses above the selection in the weights are nominated at the main threats, namely HENRYVILLE and PORT MELON.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 12 favourites (via 11 renewals) have claimed toteplacepot positions (four winners), whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was returned at 11/1 two years ago when Freckle Faced (first named horse in my analysis) extended weight trends at a decent price.
Exeter record of course winners in the fourth race:
4.10: JUST A PAR represents Paul Nicholls who has won with three of his last eight runners since a slightly disappointing Cheltenham Festival week despite the fact that only Willie Mullins saddled more winners than Paul at Prestbury Park. His level profit of sixteen points during the festival camouflages the fact the 32/35 runners were beaten. The fact this his three winners were handicappers tells the real story. Connections of JUST A PAR might have most to fear from stable companion HOWLONGISAFOOT and GODSMEJUDGE this time around.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.
4.45: All eight winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more which suggests that course winner FREE OF CHARGE could score, especially as seven-year-olds have won three of the last six contests. The fact that the Philip Hobbs raider won under similar conditions the thick end of a year ago here at Haldon adds some confidence, albeit the success gained on that occasion remains his only victory via twelve assignments. Another negative factor concerns Philip Hobbs (an unusual scenario) as all seventeen of his runners were beaten at the Cheltenham Festival, as have his subsequent seventeen representatives, though four of his last nine contenders have snared silver medals. MRSROBIN and SOMERSET LIAS might prove to be the jokers in the pack as far as Philip and his team are concerned.
Favourite factor: Six of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners. The biggest priced winner to date scored at 15/2 three years ago.
Exeter record of course winners in the toteplacepot finale:
1/4--Free Of Charge
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday:
5--Jimmy Frost (0/17 at Exeter this season)
5--Philip Hobbs (12/44)
3--Charlie Longsdon (3/24)
3--Paul Nicholls (6/18)
2--Kim Bailey (0/7)
2--Robin Dickin (--)
2--Chris Down (2/15)
2--Polly Gundry (0/1)
2--Nigel Hawke (1/11)
2--Graeme McPherson (0/2)
2--Colin Tizzard (3/24)
+ 46 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
76 declared runners