EXETER – MARCH 7
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £463.80 (6 favourites: 1 winners--2 placed--3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (2.20): 3 (Midnight Request), 5 (Ben Arthur) & 4 (Smoking Dixie)
Leg 2 (2.50): 2 (Carnsindle) & 6 (Theatre Rouge)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Only Generous), 2 (Triple Chief) & 4 (Market Road)
Leg 4 (3.50): 5 (Bramble Brook), 6 (Quinto) & 2 (Flashjack)
Leg 5 (4.20): 5 (Baccalaureate) & 2 (Lovely Bubbly)
Leg 6 (4.50): 1 (Martabot) & 2 (Mister Big)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: Nigel Hawke saddled five winners last month, the first time Nigel has offered such positive stats since February 2015. Nigel has proved that the good run of results was no fluke, as three of his last five runners in March have won (seven runners in total this month), whereby his course winner MIDNIGHT REQUEST is the first name on the team sheet. Having won at Towcester (a similarly tough circuit) last time out also augers well for his chance here, with connections possibly having most to fear from BEN ARTHUR and SMOKING DIXIE.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 3/1 favourite was one of three horses which failed to complete the course in a ten runner event.
Record of the course winners in the opening contest:
1/4—Midnight Request (good to soft)
2.50: I started last year’s analysis for this race with these words; Although Dan Skelton has been securing plenty of winners of late, it's worth noting that Dan saddled seven beaten favourites between the 4th and the 6th March, whereby taking too short a price about Rene’s Girl could prove dangerous. Sure enough, the 4/7 chance was beaten by a Philip Hobbs raider at 2/1, though much bigger odds will be available for Philip’s representative THEATRE ROUGE this time around. CARNSPINDLE will be all the rage I’ll wager, though I feel duty bound to inform that the last three (4/11, 10/11 & 9/4) Warren Greatrex favourites have been beaten. The Irish import HERE ALL ALONG is the only other potential winner from my viewpoint but even then, guesswork is the order of the day.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 market leader claimed a Placepot position but not by winning the race in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home ‘qualify’ from each way and Placepot perspectives.
3.20: ONLY GORGEOUS is being offered a better chance by the handicapper now following three assignments since Sue Gardner’s raider gained his only victory to date on the opening day of 2017 here at Exeter on soft ground. Lucy’s three pound claim boosts confidence whereby I am a little surprised that ONLY GORGEOUS is named as the outsider of the field in the trade press, albeit in a competitive little race. TRIPLE CHIEF and MARKET ROAD.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Exeter card.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/5—Only Gorgeous (soft)
1/4—Boss In Boots (good)
3.50: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 8-4 via the seventeen available toteplacepot/each way positions to date, though it is the older raiders who lead 3-2 from a win perspective. No eight-year-old’s have been declared, whereby the trio of seven-year-olds will carry my Placepot cash, namely BRAMBLE BROOK, QUINTO and FLASHJACK. The trio is listed in marginal order of preference. It’s (possibly) worth noting that although Richard Johnson rides a Henry Daly inmate earlier on the card, ‘Dickie’ has the mount aboard Colin Tizzard’s raider BRAMBLE BROOK here, despite Henry have given FLASHJACK the green light in the contest.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven market leaders (two gold and two silver medallist) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.
Record of the course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/7—Say My Name (soft)
4.20: BACCALAUREATE ended a run of 34 consecutive defeats here last month and Jimmy Frost has found a decent opportunity to get his eleven-year-old returning to (semi regular) consistent efforts. LOVELY BUBBLY represents Tim Vaughan who has already landed a couple of winners this month.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Exeter programme.
Record of the course winners in the fifth event:
1/8—Brave Deed (soft)
1/4—Baccalaureate (good to soft)
4.50: Four of the five winners have carried 11-6 or more and the top pair in the weights (MARTABOT and MISTER BIG) represent the respective powerful yards of David Pipe and Philip Hobbs. I would not dream of backing either horse from a win perspective though equally, MARTABOT and MISTER BIG are difficult to ignore in Placepot terms.
Favourite factor: Only one of the five market leaders has secured a toteplacepot position (winner of the relevant contest) thus far.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Fort Carson (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:
3—Nigel Hawke (1/13 – loss of 9 points)
3—Tim Vaughan (0/5)
2—Bob Buckler (0/6)
2—Henry Daly (0/4)
2—Alexandra Dunn (1/8 – Profit of 9 points)
2—Jimmy Frist (1/22 – loss of 10 points)
2—Seamus Mullins (0/4)
2—Philip Hobbs (5/33 – loss of 21 points)
2—Jeremy Scott (1/22 – loss of 19 points)
2—Colin Tizzard (4/22 – loss of 9 points)
2—Laura Young (0/7)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
43 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Newcastle: £108.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Southwell: £24.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced