NOTTINGHAM – MAY 23
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £19.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (2.00): 5 (Panophobia), 7 (Zain Flash) & 1 (Global Exceed)
Leg 2 (2.30): 5 (Abiento), 6 (Glacier Point) & 4 (Captain Hawk)
Leg 3 (3.00): 5 (Coeur De Lion) & 2 (Chelsea’s Boy)
Leg 4 (3.30): 4 (Carol), 2 (Di Alta) & 1 (Celestation)
Leg 5 (4.00): 7 (Stararchitecture) & 5 (Maratha)
Leg 6 (4.30): 4 (Dragons Voice), 6 (Mach One) & 1 (Al Nafoorah)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.00: Just in case readers suspect I might have forgotten to include the Nottingham course winners today, there are none well at least, not in the Placepot races on the card. Only Richard Fahey can truly be accused of being in form (seven of his last thirty runners have won) relating to the represented trainers in the field whereby PANOPHOBIA (the fear of everything!) is the tentative call. A half-brother to a five furlong juvenile winner, Richard’s Bated Breath colt has an entry in a big Doncaster race at the back end of the season. It’s unusual for David Evans to wait over six weeks to run a juvenile again after it has shown plenty of promise on debut, and that is the slight worry relating to ZAIN FLASH, that and the fact that nothing that ran behind the runner up at Leicester has shown any subsequent form worth noting. GLOBAL EXCEED (somewhat predictably) completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 1/16 favourite duly obliged.
2.30: Five horses in the handicap (includes one via a claiming jockey) appear to have plenty to do, given that all nine winners have carried at least 8-11 thus far. Six of the last eight winners have been burdened with a minimum of 9-1 which cuts two more out of the reckoning if you want to go down that route, leaving just five declarations to choose from. Hopefully ABIENTO, GLACIER POINT and CAPTAIN HAWK will lead the other pair home.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader given that gold medallists to date have been returned at 25/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1. Only three of the ten market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.
3.00: Five-year-olds have won four of the eight contests whilst vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago. Trainers don’t appear to have wanted the ‘edge’ this time around however as for the second time in four years, vintage representatives are on the missing list. Upwards and onward in positive mode by informing that Alan King has saddled five of his last seventeen runners to winning effect which suggests that his seventh placed Triumph Hurdle raider COEUR DE LION should go close to winning this weak event, compared to the Cheltenham Festival contest at last. Yes, Alan’s dual hurdle winner would have been a stronger fancy had he had timber to negotiate though that said, only CHELSEA’S BOY makes any appeal of the remaining seven entries. I’ve just noticed that the first three races have produced horses fancied to win with the number five on their saddlecloth. I can’t remember much that happened yesterday, but I can recall trap two winning the first seven races when I was at Wembley one evening two hundred years ago, when just eight contests were featured on the card! The eighth trap two runner that night – finished second.
Favourite factor: The eight favourites to date have secured four gold medals, three silver and one bronze, all having claimed toteplacepot positions thus far.
3.30: All eight winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-2 whilst the biggest priced winner thus far was sent off at 5/1. CAROL is pretty exposed compared to some rivals here but Ed Dunlop’s Acclamation filly has proved consistent enough to be taken seriously in this grade/company. Mark Johnston is due to hit top form any time now with the Royal Ascot meeting less than a month away whereby CELESTATION warrants respect, with good to soft winner DI ALTA also entering the Placepot equation. Marilyn would have been in the mix but for hovering sixteen ounces below the ‘superior’ weight barrier. If you are going to have ‘anorak’ tendencies (like yours truly) you have to adhere to them, on the majority of occasions at least.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed to date, with six of the ten jollies finishing in the frame (exact science).
4.00: Five of the last six favourites have won representing top yards and there is every chance that STARARCHITECTURE (William Haggas) and MARATHA (Simon Crisford) will be well to the fore in the market come flag fall and hopefully in the race as well, particularly at the business end of proceedings. I made a similar point about the chance of Blair House twelve months ago before Charlie Appleby’s won with plenty to spare at odds of 14/1. The newcomer drifted badly on the day before hosing up by the thick end of three lengths. I guess that’s why I have left Sporting Times alone today as the prohibitive odds of 11/10 (at the time of writing) cannot be classed as offering value for money, a factor I have in mind in every race I peruse.
Favourite factor: Seven of the nine market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during which time, four favourites have obliged.
4.30: DRAGONS VOICE jumps off the page to a fashion here, with Philip Hide having saddled five of his last thirteen runners on the flat to winning effect. If Philip’s Poet’s Voice gelding scored here, you might want to check out his two runners at Brighton which follow closely behind. MACH ONE is as horse I would want to keep on the right side if the ground dried up before flag fall, whilst the Placepot chance for AL NAFOORAH is there for all to see.
Favourite factor: Six of the seven winners have scored at a top price of 15/2 thus far, statistics which include two successful (joint) favourites. Five of the nine market leaders have finished in the frame.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Ed Dunlop (0/8)
3—Michael Bell (2/6 – Slight profit)
3—David Brown (0/1)
3—Karl Burke (0/6)
3—Alan King (0/1)
2—Ralph Beckett (1/4 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Clive Cox (0/3)
2—David Evans (0/7)
2—Richard Fahey (2/11 – loss of 2 points)
2—John Gallagher (0/4)
2—Ed de Giles (1/3 – Profit of 4 points)
2—Dean Ivory (No runners)
2—Richard Price (0/2)
2—Derek Shaw (0/1)
2—Chris Wall (0/1)
2—Ian Williams (0/3)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: No corresponding meeting
Hexham: £107.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced
Huntingdon: £124.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W): £641.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced