EXETER – MAY 9
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £41.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Exeter:
Leg 1 (5.45): 2 (Brahms De Clermont) & 1 (Air Squadron)
Leg 2 (6.15): 3 (Swatow) & 2 (Goodgirlteresa)
Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Royale D’Jango), 1 (Abricot De Loasis) & 2 (Captain Buck’s)
Leg 4 (7.15): 4 (Gone Too Far), 5 (Ink Master) & 1 (Purple ‘N Gold)
Leg 5 (7.45): 6 (Inch Rock) & 5 (Honourable Exit)
Leg 6 (8.15): 8 (Equus Amadeus), 6 (My Story) & 1 (St John’s)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.45: Let’s hope it is a case of Paul Nicholls carrying on where he left off at Exeter last season via his 12/25 ratio at the track. BRAHMS DE CLERMONT seems to have plenty going for him though several top trainers are also involved with the pick of the opposition probably proving to be the Tom George newcomer AIR SQUADRON. Four-year-olds have won five of the last ten contests which adds interest to this year’s two vintage representatives, Protest and Dusky Raider.
Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have obliged, the other two winners having scored at 11/4 and 11/2 during the study period. The two market leaders which failed to win secured Placepot positions.
6.15: I have come unstuck several times in the past by following Emma Lavelle’s favourites though that said, SWATOW appears to only have to jump timber successfully here to land the spoils. Her Chepstow and Southwell runner up efforts put her a long way clear via the form book though if that was a truly accurate guide of course, bookmakers would not be in business. GOODGIRLTERESA has to turn the tables on the market leader to score, a scenario which would have more chance of succeeding if Tom Scudamore can get the Stowaway mare to settle better this time around.
Favourite factor: Favourites come to the gig on a four timer, though the previous three market leaders (via just six renewals thus far) finished out of the frame.
6.45: A fascinating six runner contest which could greatly influence the eventual Placepot dividend, one way or the other. The top pair in the handicap are the obvious pair to home in on via half decent Placepot efforts to date though as stated many time before, handicap hurdle events beyond the minimum distance have the worst favourite record in the sport, under either code. That offers ROAYLE DJANGO a sporting chance from my viewpoint, this morning’s 5/1 quote being generous enough relating to Richard Johnson’s mount. ABRICOT DE LOASIS and CAPTAIN BUCK’S cannot be left out of the Placepot equation however.
Favourite factor: Six renewals have slipped by since a favourite scored though bookmakers have not had things going all their way, with five of the last seven gold medallists having won at a top price of 5/1. Only one of the last five market leaders has secured a Placepot position.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/1—Captain Buck’s (good)
3/6—Dragon’s Den (2 x good to firm & good)
7.15: 16/1 (in a place) looks too big relating to the chance of last year’s winner GONE TOO FAR in my book, especially as the course and distance winner won under similar conditions twelve months ago. We can ignore a few of his recent disappointing efforts for different reasons (4 miles was too far in the Scottish National last time out as an example) whereby David Pipe’s raider is a sporting selection is a race which will not take a great deal of winning. INK MASTER and GOWANAUTHAT might offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings. Before I wrap things up however, I should point out that eight-year-old’s have won all four renewals, this year’s only relevant entry being another David Pipe raider, namely Purple ‘N Gold.
Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have prevailed, though the other pair of market leaders missed out on Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/1—Gone Too Far (good to firm)
7.45: INCH ROCK varies between even money and 8/11 at the time of writing and carries that ‘too good to be true’ given the first quote, such is the weakness of this contest. The ground should not be an issue, whilst five successive Placepot efforts have been recorded during which time, one victory has been recorded. HONOURABLE EXIT is the logical danger, though since when has logic come into the equation in the sport of racing?
Favourite factor: All ten winners during the last decade have scored at 6/1 or less, statistics which include four winning favourites. Contrary to the comment relating to favourites in the handicap hurdle earlier on the card, market leaders in Hunter Chase events have the best record under either code of our favourite sport.
8.15: Two of Tom Lacey’s last four runners have won (one of which was recorded here at Exeter recently) whereby the nod is given to EQUUS AMADEUS who improved to run a decent race at Warwick at the second time of asking, albeit he only snared another bronze medal. It’s also worth noting that four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals. MY STORY and course winner ST JOHN’S should make a race of it as the runners turn for home.
Favourite factor: Five renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed, four of which returned at odds varying between 11/1 and 16/1. The last four favourites have finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—St John’s (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Exeter card on Tuesday – followed by their ratios at the track last season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Sue Gardner (4/20 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (2/13 – loss of 7 points)
2—Nicky Martin (1/4 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Paul Nicholls (12/25 – loss of 7 points)
2—David Pipe (3/42 – loss of 27 points)
2—Dan Skelton (2/5 – Profit of 13 points)
2—Tim Vaughan (0/12)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
40 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: Last year’s meeting was only a one day fixture (Monday)
Leicester: £2,012.10 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Fakenham: £35.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 1 unplaced
Ffos Las: £63.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplac