FAKENHAM - NOVEMBER 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £255.90 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 placed)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Fakenham:
Leg 1 (1.05): 5 (Taroum), 4 (Le Legro) & 1 (Jonagold)
Leg 2 (1.35): 2 (Queen Spud), 1 (Shaky Gift) & 3 (Dawnieriver)
Leg 3 (2.05): 1 (Honcho), 2 (Lift The Lid) & 3 (Captain Mowbray)
Leg 4 (2.35): 1 (Final Nudge) & 4 (Prince Of Steal)
Leg 5 (3.05): 4 (Prettylittlething) & 3 (Clara Peggotty)
Leg 6 (3.35): 1 (Bertenbar) & 3 (Sidecheck)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.05: Tom O’Brien is having a fine season in the saddle and TAROUM can score for the underrated pilot in the opening race on the card which will not take a great deal of winning. LE LEGRO and JONAGOLD are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include one successful (85/40) market leader from a win perspective.
1.35: If you ever needed proof that Fakenham was a ‘specialists’ track, today’s ratios should end your doubt. Five runners on the card have won at Fakenham before, boasting aggregate figures of 10/10. Two of those runners clash here, with QUEEN SPUD going for a 4/4 ratio, against potential figures of 3/3 emerging if SHAKY GIFT (a winner on this corresponding card twelve months ago) can score. DAWNIERIVER is the potential party-pooper in the line-up but facing 5/5 figures against him, I would want to be taking the hat trick hero on at the trade press price of 11/10.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have snared Placepot positions, two of the market leaders having prevailed at odds of 11/10.
Record of course winners in the second race:
2/2—Shaky Gift (good to soft & soft)
3/3—Queen Spud (3 x good)
2.05: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last nine renewals, whilst just three favourites has prevailed via the last twelve contests. Ten of the last twelve gold medallists were burdened with a minimum weight of 10-13. Putting the stats and facts together produces a tick in both boxes for HONCHO, with connections having most to fear from LIFT THE LID and CAPTAIN MOWBRAY, according to the weight stats at least.
Favourite factor: 10 of the last 15 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include four winners.
2.35: Despite Jojnjo O’Neill having won the big race at the weekend with the ‘wrong one’, his stable have been enduring a torrid time, with Taquin Du Seuil being his only gold medallist from 47 runners in November at the time of writing. I am bypassing the obvious chance (via form lines) of Join The Clan accordingly, preferring FINAL NUDGE and PRINCE OF STEAL for ‘numerical reasons’. Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land in the morning in your quest to lump on Jonjo’s runner given my comments!
Favourite factor: Both of the hot (1/3 & 8/13) favourites have been beaten in ‘win only’ contests to date.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:
2/2—Prince Of Steal (good to soft & soft)
3.05: Neil Mulholland has saddled the winner of both renewals thus far, with the trainer having opted for PRETTYLITTLETHING to land the treble. A winner of two of her last three races, Neil’s six-year-old appears to have been well placed again, possibly only having CLARA PEGGOTTY to beat on this occasion. The fact that the other represented trainers ‘boast’ figures of 0/16 compared to Neil’s 6/32 during the last fortnight adds weight to the strong selection.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite duly obliged before last year’s market leader finished out with the washing.
3.35: Seven of the nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3, with BERTENBAR preferred to SIDECHECK and MARKY BOB at the time of writing. The latter named raider has failed to add to his tally via six subsequent starts, refusing to race on two occasions. The plan is to leave him out of my Placepot permutation, but to back ‘Bob’ to win the race if jumping off with the others, especially none of those six ‘failures’ occurred at this venue as you can detect below.
Favourite factor: Eight renewals have slipped by without a successful market leader being recorded since the inaugural 4/5 favourite obliged back in 2007.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
3/3—Marky Bob (2 x good to soft + good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Fakenham card on Tuesday – followed by this season’s stats at the course and profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Alexander Dunn (1/3 – Profit of 3 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (2/3 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Michael Chapman (0/4)
2—John Cornwall (0/4)
2—John Flint (1/3 – Profit of 1 point)
+ 19 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
32 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Southwell (NH): 496.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield A/W: £46.30 – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced