LINGFIELD - NOVEMBER 8
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £147.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Lingfield:
Leg 1 (12.50): 1 (Peggies Venture) & 7 (Pampanini)
Leg 2 (1.20): 1 (Phobiaphiliac), 7 (Mickieblueeyes) & 8 (Reality Bites)
Leg 3 (1.55): 1 (Twenty Eight Guns), 3 (Taroum) & 6 (Galros Lady)
Leg 4 (2.30): 3 (Jelly Monger) & 2 (Guards Chapel)
Leg 5 (3.00): 2 (Authorized Too), 1 (Changing The Guard) & 4 (Lautaret)
Leg 6 (3.30): 2 (Theligny) & 3 (King Cool)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.50: PAMPANINI looks to be a fairly safe option from a Placepot perspective, though Course and distance winner PEGGIES VENTURE should give five pounds and a beating to that rival judged on her ‘bumper’ victory back in March. Nicky Henderson’s intended runner Winding Bae was not ‘jocked up’ at the time of writing which is often a sign that the horse has been scratched without the news having filtered through to the media yet. Either way, I will rely on the first named pair on this occasion.
Favourite factor: The opening race on the Lingfield card is a new event.
1.20: Like in the first race on the card, the top weight should be able to give weight away successfully, though this is a tougher assignment for PHOBIAPHILIAC than Peggies Venture was set to tackle. Nicky Henderson’s raider was an easy winner at Southwell and though the races at that venue are not of the highest class by any means, 18 lengths is a long way for any horse to win by. MICKIEBLUEEYES will be running on much faster ground than was the case when scoring on debut which suggests that connections could settle for place money, whilst REALITY BITES needs to transfer Irish ‘Point’ form to this different discipline.
1.55: Four of the five winners to date have carried a minimum burden of eleven stones, statistics which cuts the six strong field in half from a weight trend perspective. Two of the three horses at the head of the handicap (listed in order of preference) are TWENTY EIGHT GUNS and TAROUM who make most appeal. If (like last year) the trend goes base over apex however, GALROS LADY could prove to be the joker in the pack.
Favourite factor: Three of the five market leaders have finished in the frame to date, statistics which include two (5/4 & Evens) winners.
2.30: JELLY MONGER would appear to have an obvious ‘edge‘ here, given that Grand National winning rider Tommy Murphy is set to ride the four year old in a race to be contested by ‘flat jockeys’. Tommy’s vast experience of riding over obstacles has got to aid and abet his chance, with GUARDS CHAPEL expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings. Gary Moore was wide of the mark with five runners at Sandown on Sunday when trying to emulate last season’s great results at the Esher venue but that said, GUARDS CHAPEL faces a routine test here and should be able to claim a Placepot position at the very least.
Favourite factor: We had to wait until last year (seventh renewal) for a successful favourite to be posted, albeit that four of the earlier winners scored at a top price of 9/2. Four of the last six favourites missed out on toteplacepot positions.
3.00: Although the relevant ratio is only 1/3, Noel Williams offers the best trainer stats during the last fortnight at the time of writing, whereby AUTHORIZED TOO (winner of two of his last five races) is the first name on the team sheet in this ‘win only’ contest. As a winner of three of his seven steeplechase assignments, CHANGING THE GUARD appears to be the logical danger. LAUTERET is preferred to Theatre Mill of the other pair of contenders.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 11/4 favourite finished third in a ‘short field’ event, missing out on a Placepot position in the inaugural contest. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home ‘qualify’ from each way & Placepot perspectives.
3.30: Venetia Williams (Eminent Poet) has only just re-entered the fray after the summer break whereby her runners will be watched until the first inmate scores, potentially leaving the way open for THELIGNY and KING COOL to dominate the Placepot finale.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/4 market leader snared a Placepot position finishing behind horses sent off at 7/1 and 6/1.
Favourite factor: Nine of last ten winners have scored at a top price of 13/2, statistics which include four successful favourites. Al eight favourites during the last decade secured Placepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Lingfield card on Tuesday – followed by 5 year stats & profits/losses accrued:
4 runners – Gary Moore (10/58 – loss of 2 points)
3—Tim Vaughan (2/12 – loss of 7 points)
2—Brian Barr (No runners)
2—John Flint (No runners)
2—Nicky Henderson (1/3 – loss of 1 point)
2—Lawney Hill (0/1)
2—John Jenkins (No runners)
2—Alan King (2/6 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Neil Mulholland (1/15 – loss of 10 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (No runners)
2—Robert Walford (0/9)
+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
52 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Huntingdon: £36.50 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Sedgefield: £303.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 unplaced – 3 unplaced
Newcastle: This is a new meeting