LEICESTER - OCTOBER 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £22.60 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 placed)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Azam), 2 (First Nation) & 10 (Star Of Doah)
Leg 2 (2.40): 4 (Doctor Bong) & 15 (Q Ten Girl)
Leg 3 (3.10): 6 (C Note) & 2 (Can’t Change It)
Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Dougan), 6 (Lightscameraaction) & 8 (Kasbah)
Leg 5 (4.15): 7 (Utmost) & 6 (Redgrave)
Leg 6 (4.45): 4 (Moneyoryourlife), 3 (Bonnie Arlene) & 8 (Misty Moo)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: Plenty of leading stables are represented here with AZAM (John Gosden), FIRST NATION (Charlie Appleby) and STAR OF DOAH representing last year’s winning trainer Ralph Beckett. John Gosden continues to send out winners for fun and with the experienced Newmarket fourth placed raider AZAM chosen to represent the yard, John is expected to land another success.
Favourite factor: The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 11/2, statistics which include six successful market leaders. Eight of the ten favourites during the study period secured toteplacepot positions.
2.40: Four-year-olds have secured 13 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions thus far (albeit the stats include only two of the eight winners) whereby DOCTOR BONG is added to my original pair against the field, namely Q TEN GIRL and REBEL LIGHTNING, three-year-olds having won the last five renewals.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, with four market leaders winning their respective events. That last stat did not include the beaten 2/7 market leader three years ago.
Record of the course winner in the field:
2/6—Imperial Link (soft & heavy)
3.10: David O’Meara is back among the winners though the relevant strike rate is still on the low side and with stable representative That Is The Spirit preferring softer ground, I prefer C NOTE and CAN’T CHANGE IT. Seven time winner Intransigent has contested 22 races since winning his last race and though there was plenty to like about a recent silver medal effort, Andrew Balding’s representative hardly represents value for money accordingly.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourites has claimed a Placepot position thus far without winning the respective event.
Record of course winners in the third event on the card:
1/1—C Note (heavy)
3.45: Only David Evans is sending out regular winners relating to the represented trainers at the time of writing whereby DOUGAN is the first name on the team sheet. LIGHTSCAMERAACTION and KASBAH are feared most.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/6 market leader found one too good for him when flanked by horses sent off at 10/1 & 16/1 in a ‘dead eight’ contest.
Record of course winners in the fourth race:
1/1—Poyle Vinnie (good)
1/2--Hay Chewed (good to soft)
4.15: This race commemorates the great name of Reference Point who won both the Epsom Derby and the St Leger in 1987, before (arguably) an abscess robbed him of the chance of victory in the ‘Arc’ later in the year (ran but failed to win). I doubt there is a horse of half the quality in this line up but upwards and onward in positive fashion by suggesting that John Gosden's newcomer UTMOST has been well placed to follow up a successful stable representative twelve months ago. Beaten favourite REDGRAVE is expected to run a better race here on faster ground, whilst AMAKHALA is the other horse on my short list at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last 20 contests, whilst 16 recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions via 20 ‘divisions’ of late.
4.45: Richard Hannon has won both renewals to date whereby the chance of MONEYORYOURLIFE is respected. In a race which should not prove difficult to win, Placepot chances are also offered to BONNIE ARLENE and MISTY MOO though from a win perspective, cash remains firmly under lock and key.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite finished out with the washing in the toteplacepot finale before last year’s 4/1 market leader snared the silver medal alongside a Placepot position.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday:
4—Tony Carroll (1/13 at Windsor in 2016 – loss of 10 points to level stakes)
4—Mark Johnston (1/19 – loss of 17 points)
3—Michael Appleby (2/24 – loss of 8 points)
2—Conrad Allen (1/1 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Charlie Appleby (0/1)
2—George Baker (2/9 – loss of 1 point)
2—Andrew Balding (2/11 – loss of 4 points)
2—Tom Dascombe (0/14)
2—Richard Fahey (6/30 – Profit 8 points)
2—Roger Fell (No runners thus far)
2—Jimmy Fox (No runners thus far)
2—John Gosden (2/11 – Profit of 8 points)
2—Rae Guest (1/5 – loss of 1 point)
2—Martyn Meade (1/3 – loss of 1 point)
2—John O’Shea (2/7 – Profit of 8 points)
2—David O’Meara (2/14 – loss of 5 points)
2—Derek Shaw (1/39 – loss of 22 points)
2—Roger Varian (6/22 – loss of 6 points)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
56 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Musselburgh: £12.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Huntingdon: £162.70 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £105.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Leicester overview - relating to their juvenile events at 2.10, 4.15 & 4.45
5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector:
4/23—John Gosden (Azam)
5/27—Charlie Appleby (First Nation)
3/26—Roger Varian (Fujaira Bridge)
4/13—Saeed Bin Suroor (King’s Shadow)
0/2—Owen Burrows (Quloob)
0/6—Tony Carroll (Red Bordeaux)
2/16—Luca Cumani (Red Label)
0/7—Hughie Morrison (Special Relation)
8/54—Mark Johnston (X Rated)
5/18—Ralph Beckett (Star Of Doha)
5/27—Charlie Appleby (Amakkhala)
3/26—Roger Vartian (Cape Byron)
2/10—Roger Charlton (Eynhallow)
0/4—Marcus Tregoning (Leonidas)
8/54—Mark Johnston (Makkaar)
9/34—Charlie Hills (Redgrace)
4/23—John Gosden (Utmost)
No runners—Roger Fell (Mystic Maeve)
0/6—Tony Carroll (Henry Did It)
8/54—Mark Johnston (Bonnie Arlene)
11/62—Richard Hannon (Moneyoryourlife)
No runners—Mark Hoad (Maysonri)
8/45—Richard Fahey (Snookered)
2/32—Tom Dascombe (Hazy Manor)
1/14—Michael Appleby (Misty Moo)
No runners—Stuart Edmunds (Topmeup)
0/2—David Dennis (Proud Show)