LEICESTER - OCTOBER 4
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2015: £432.40 (7 favourites - 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)
Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester:
Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (Choumicha) & 10 (Sulafah)
Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Ghadaayer) & 8 (Shiloh)
Leg 3 (3.20): 4 (Muroor), 3 (Burnside) & 2 (Monday Club)
Leg 4 (3.50): 4 (Classic Collection) & 6 (Monotype)
Leg 5 (4.20): 13 (Mad Endeavour), 10 (Dark Command), 3 (Born Innocent) & 2 (Fever Few)
Leg 6 (4.50): 5 (Hestina), 1 (Pointel) & 8 (Corpus Chorister)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: CHOUMICHA was a real ‘eye catcher’ on her first day at school and any amount of normal progress (whatever that is) between the first and second run in a career would take her mighty close to winning this event. A half-sister to the 2000 Guineas winner Galileo Gold, Hugo Palmer’s Paco Boy filly looks a winner waiting to happen, providing as already proposed, that the February foal confirms her potential. The main dangers could prove to be SULAFAH, PARISIENNE ROSE and (possibly) ITALIAN HEIRESS.
Favourite factor: Seven of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via 13 renewals, statistics which include two (4/9 & 1/7) successful market leaders. Although the market leaders have cut little ice in the contest to date, ten of the twelve gold medallists ranged between 4/1 and 10/1, whereby bookmakers have not had things all their own way by any means.
2.50: GHADAAYER is the likely improver in the second division of the first event on the card, with Sir Michael Stoute’s Shamardal filly expected to find this seven furlong trip ideal at this stage of her career. I don’t have as much enthusiasm for Michael’s raider as I did for Choumicha in the opening contest but that said, I would be surprise if she failed to become involved in the finish. SHILOH and DARIGA are two newcomers worth noting with an eye to the future.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event whereby the same stats and facts apply.
3.20: The terms and conditions of this selling event greatly favour MUROOR though as a maiden after nine assignments to date, David O’Meara’s Nayef gelding hardly appeals from a win perspective having been beaten by over 20 lengths at Hamilton last time out, albeit under heavy conditions. There is no doubting the attraction from a Placepot viewpoint however, with BURNSIDE and MONDAY CLUB feared more than most.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last seventeen market leaders secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
3.50: With three gold and three silver medals gleaned via his last nine runners, it’s clear to see (as suggested here last week) that Saeed Bin Saeed is back with a vengeance whereby his Cape Cross gelding CLASSIC COLLECTION is the first name on the team sheet in this event. Having won under yielding conditions in the past, the dew in the grass that we start seeing at this time of the year should ensure that similar ground will be in evidence on Tuesday, which is a further positive factor. With just over eight miles recorded on his racing clock to date, CLASSIC COLLECTION surely has room for further improvement, not that much will be required to take this contest in my considered opinion. Saeed boasts a 27% record at the track during the last five years, prompting yours truly to make CLASSIC SOLLECTION my nap on the card. MONOTYPE and FAITHFUL MOUNT are expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.
Record of course winners in the fourth event on the card:
1/2--Noble Gift (soft)
1/1—Faithful Moment (good to soft)
4.20: All three winners have carried a minimum weight of 9-2, as have the majority of the horses gaining Placepot positions thus far. The stats eliminate 1/3 of the field (6/18) if we include jockey claims, leaving yours truly with a short list of MAD ENDEAVOUR, DARK COMMAND and BORN INNOCENT to consider. FEVER FEW receives the overnight reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 'jolly' duly obliged before the last two markets leaders finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winner in the field in the fifth race:
4.50: Eight of the last nine winners have carried nine stones or more which eliminates the bottom three horses if you take the stats seriously. This leaves ten entries for us to assess and from my viewpoint, the trio to home in on from a value for money perspective appear to be HESTINA, POINTEL and CORPUS CHORISTER. At first glance, it could be argued that the handicapper has caught up with the latter named raider but with David Menuisier having recorded stats of 5/14 during the month of September (stats which include 28 points of level stake profit), I’m inclined to include David’s only runner on the day.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 15 winners were priced at 28/1-20/1-12/1-10/1-17/2, whilst nine other outsiders priced between 10/1 and 20/1 reached the frame. 14 of the last 20 market leaders have been beaten, with ten of those beaten favourites having secured toteplacepot positions.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Leicester card on Tuesday:
5—John Patrick Shanahan (first runners at Leicester this season)
4—Roger Varian (6/19 – loss of 3 points to level stakes)
3—Clive Cox (1/10 – level this term)
3—Mark Johnston (1/16 – loss of 14 points)
3—David O’Meara (1/11 – loss of 5 points)
3—Ian Williams (1/5 – Profit of 1 point)
2—John Portman (2/6 – Profit of 3 points)
2—Simon Crisford (1/3 – loss of 1 point)
2—Kevin Ryan (1/16 – loss of 6 points)
2—Derek Shaw (0/6)
2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/16 – loss of 2 points)
2—Saeed Bin Suroor (2/5 – Profit of 2 points)
2—Roger Teal (---)
2—Nigel Tinkler (1/9 – loss of 2 points)
2—Chris Wall (2/8 – lows of 1 point)
+ 54 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
93 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Brighton: £44.70 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Catterick: £161.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton (A/W) - £587.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Leicester overview - relating to their juvenile events at 2.20 & 2.50
5 year record of represented trainers in the two-year-old sector:
8/53—Mark Johnston (Aqdameya)
1/6—Hugo Palmer (Choumicha)
0/5—Jeremy Noseda (Ettu)
6/30—Sir Michael Stoute (Freediver)
2/26—Clive Cox (Italian Heiress)
No runners—Roger Teal (Kyllachys Tale)
1/6—David Lanigan (Last Word)
1/3—Simon Crisford (Parisienne Rose)
3/26—Kevin Ryan (Rutherford)
3/24—Roger Varian (Sulafah)
2/9—Roger Charlton (Yellowhammer)
3/24—Roger Varian (Dariga)
0/3—Ed de Giles (Delirium)
6/30—Sir Michael Stoute (Ghadaayer)
4/22—John Gosden (Moondust)
2/26—Clive Cox (Mordoree)
0/16—Marco Botti (Scarlet Thrush)
No runners—John Patrick Shanahan (Set In Stone)
1/3—Simon Crisford (Shiloh)
4/17—Ralph Beckett (Subatomic)
No runners—Stuart Edmunds (Unzipped)