Placepot pointers – Tuesday September 20

BEVERLEY - SEPTEMBER 20

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £321.10 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Beverley: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Areen Heart), 4 (Makkaar) & 2 (Buccaneers Cove)

Leg 2 (2.40): 7 (Jeany) & 6 (Harbour Lightning)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Eastern Impact), 11 (Ornate) & 4 (Double Up)

Leg 4 (3.40): 3 (Mustaqqil), 5 (Relight My Fire) & 4 (Zeshov)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Layla's Hero) & 5 (Energia Flavio)

Leg 6 (4.45): 2 (Gulf Of Poets) & 7 (Nona Blu)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.10: Plenty of readers will side with Warm Love here, though David O'Meara's juvenile record of 1/31 at the track (last five years) hardly sets the pulse racing.  Richard Fahey saddles two horses with 'only' six weeks or so of the turf season left.  AREEN HEART is preferred to BUCCANEERS COVE, with plenty of respect also offered to Mark Johnston's newcomer MAKKAAR.

Favourite factor: Favourites have secured three of the seven contests to date, with all seven market leaders securing toteplacepot positions as the other four favourites finished second in their respective events.

2.40: All seven winners have carried a maximum burden of nine stones and it's difficult to envisage JEANY and HARBOUR LIGHTNING failing to land a blow at some stage of the contest. I would not back either horse from a win perspective though on the other hand, these are the likeliest pair to fill Placepot positions in the field from my viewpoint.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than Reedanjas though similarly, it's difficult to call the Gay Kelleway representative as a punt, even in this low grade.

Favourite factor:  Five of the seven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include just the one (7/4) winner.

3.10: With half of the twelve runners officially rated in three figures, this appears to be a reasonably strong renewal, with EASTERN IMPACT, ORNATE and DOUBLE UP expected to lead the sextet home, albeit the trio is not listed in order of preference because at the time of writing, there is no order of preference!.  With eleven victories recorded between them, this trio will surely bag a couple of Placepot positions, with RED PIKE offered up as the overnight reserve.  Tangerine Trees won the big sprint race (Prix De L'Abbaye) on 'Arc' day at Longchamp back in 2011 but the eleven-year-old has only won three of his subsequent 34 races.  In contrast, dual course and distance winner Ziggy Lee (from just the two starts at this venue) might give each way investors a decent run at attractive odds.

Favourite factor:  Nine favourites have won via 18 renewals to date, whilst 12 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.

Record of course winners in the third race:

3.40: 12 of the last 14 winners of this event carried weights of 8-12 or more which eliminates the bottom four horses if you take the stats seriously.  David O'Meara is the leading trainer at Beverley this season (see stats towards the foot of the page) and his dual (all weather) beaten favourite MUSTAQQIL is an interesting entry back on on turf after a long period.  Others for the short list in a race which will not take a great deal of winning include RELIGHT MY FIRE and the recent Musselburgh winner ZESHOV.

Favourite factor:  Only one of the last 21 favourites (via 19 renewals) has prevailed, whilst ten market leaders reached the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

4/25--Relight My Fire (4 x good to firm)

2/10--Talent Scout (2 x good to firm)

2/9--Rocket Ronnie (2 x good to firm)

4.10: The bottom two horses can be ignored if you follow the weight stats of the previous race, this being the second division of the 3.40 event. Fifteen time winner LAYLA'S HERO boasts a 67% strike rate at the track and with the going looking as though it will be in his favour, Roger Teal's top weight is the first name on the team sheet.  Vying for the other position in my Placepot mix on Tuesday at the time of writing are ENERGIA FLAVIO and SEE THE STORM.

Favourite factor:  This is the second division of the previous event on the card whereby the same weight/favourite stats apply.

Record of course winners in the fifth event:

2/3--Layla's Hero (good & good to firm)

2/15--Make On Madam (2 x good)

4.45: I am hoping that that juice might have got into the ground by the time the Placepot finale is run (though not too much before!), with course 'specialists' GULF OF POETS and RAVENHOE both having posted victories here under yielding conditions.  If any horse on the card deserves to win a race, NONA BLU is arguably the call and with the defending champion jockey booked to ride, this triple runner up (from as many recent starts) has to be involved in the mix.

Favourite factor:  Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (3/1) winner.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1--Gulf Of Poets (good to soft)

1/11--Red Charmer (good to firm)

1/2--Ravenhoe (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Beverley card on Tuesday:  

8--Richard Fahey (10/67 - loss of 19 points to level stakes)

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4--Ann Duffield (2/30 - loss of 19 points)

4--Tim Easterby (6/57 - loss of 2 points)

3--Michael Appleby (1/13 - loss of 5 points)

3--Ruth Carr (1/26 - loss of 21 points)

3--Mick Easterby (2/15 - Profit of 32 points)

3--Tony Coyle (1/24 - Profit of 43 points)

3--Richard Guest (5/16 - Profit of 20 points)

3--David Loghnane (5/24 - Profit of 3 points)

3--David O'Meara (11/52 - Profit of 17 points)

2--Rebecca Bastiman (0/16)

2--Neville Bycroft (0/4)

2--Eve Johnson Houghton (0/2)

2--Mark Johnston (8/60 - loss of 24 points)

2--Gay Kelleway (0/2)

2--Paul Midgley (1/10 - loss of 7 points)

2--Bryan Smart (2/18 - loss of 6 points)

2--Roger Teal (0/1)

2--Karen Tutty (2/17 - loss of 1 point)

2--Alistair Whillans (---)

+ 30 trainers with one runner at the meeting

87 declared runners

 

General overview - corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Lingfield: £53.10 - 11 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 6 unplaced

Ffos Las: This is a new meeting on the calendar

Warwick: £57.40 - 6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced

 

Beverley overview - 5 year juvenile record of represented trainers in the relevant events at 2.10 & 2.40: 

2.10:

19/112--Richard Fahey (Areen Heart & Buccaneers Cove)

4/114--Tim Easterby (Final Chapter)

13/78--Mark Johnston (Makkaar)

1/31--David O'Meara (Warm Love)

2.40: 

0/4--Derek Shaw (Oh So Dandy)

19/112--Richard Fahey (Western Presence)

9/71--Ann Duffield (A Bit Of Ginger & Harbour Lightning)

1/12--James Given (Dandy Bird)

4/114--Tim Easterby (Flashing Light)

2/37--Bryan Smart (Jeany)

1/23--Paul Midgley (Miss Pepper)

0/3--Gay Kelleway (Reedanjas)

 

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