Placepot pointers – Tuesday September 27

SEDGEFIELD - SEPTEMBER 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £61.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Sedgefield: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Mixboy) & 2 (Prince Khurrum)

Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Our Reward), 1 (Kiwayu) & 6 (Dante’s Wager)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (The Grey Taylor) & 4 (Kapstadt)

Leg 4 (3.40): 4 (The Backup Plan), 2 (Safari Journey) & 1 (Swaledale Lad)

Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Theatre Act), 2 (Silver Shuffle) & 7 (Oh So Gigolo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Floramoss) & 4 (Gvs Irportensa)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: 30 Placepot races have created 32 favourites at Sedgefield this season, statistics which have produced 12 winners, 4 placed and 16 unplaced market leaders (exact science).  The average toteplacepot dividend via five meetings stands at £1,384.54, albeit two of the dividends failed to reach 'three figures'.  The £6,275.70 return on May 3rd inflated the average.  You will note that only four of the 20 favourites that failed to win their respective events claimed additional Placepot positions.  Although this an exaggerated statistic at Sedgefield, time and time again I find that less than 40% of market leaders that fail to win actually manage to creep into the frame.   Upwards and onwards in positive mode by suggesting that MIXBOY and PRINCE KHURRUM should get us safely through to the second leg of our favourite wager.   Although MIXBOY can be found in the course winner stats below having scored on heavy ground, the Keith Dalgleish raider has also won under fast conditions at Cartmel whereby Tuesday’s going should not pose a problem.

Favourite factor: This is a new race with which to open proceedings at Sedgefield on Tuesday.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

1/3—Mixboy (heavy)

2/5—Prince Khurram (2 x good to firm)

2/7—Baraboy (2 x soft)

1/2--Major Ivan (good to soft)

2.30: Jamie Snowden’s dual course and distance winner OUR REWARD is the first name on the team sheet, though not only for the opening statement.  Jamie has saddled three of his four runners at Sedgefeld this season to winning effect for good measure.  There will be worse outsiders on the card than DANTE’S WAY I’ll wager, especially with Dianne Sayer’s 40% strike rate at the venue this season having produced 10 points of level stake profits.  Readers might argue that KIWAYU looks a likelier winner of the contest.

Favourite factor: This another new race on the Sedgefield card.

Record of course winners in the second race on the card:

2/2—Our Reward (good & good to soft)

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1/1—Gran Paradiso (good)

3.05: As a winner of just one of his last eight races, it could be argued that THE GREY TAILOR has failed to build on a first class start to his career, bearing in mind that Brian Ellison’s raider was just a 5/1 chance to win a Grade 2 race just 18 months ago.  For all that, Brian’s seven-year-old is no ‘back number’ just yet, though connections will anticipate a decent effort in this company.  That said, the terms and conditions of this event also suit CAPSTADT, though the five timer winner has also been winning sparingly of late, with just one gold medal to show via his last ten assignments.  I think it is highly likely that one of this pair will prevail en route to recapturing some earlier potential later in the season.

Favourite factor: Yet another new race on the Sedgefield programme.

Record of course winners in the third race:

2/5—Venue (good & good to soft)

3.40: Six of the eight gold medallists carried a minimum burden of 11-1, statistics which effectively eliminate four of the ‘dead field’ which makes life a little easier on an ordinary midweek card. One of the qualifiers is last year’s winner THE BACKUP PLAN though even then, it’s worth noting that Donald McCain’s raider has not won via eight subsequent assignments, resulting in first time blinkers now being applied.  SAFARI JOURNEY and SWALEDALE LAD are feared most.

Favourite factor: Six of the nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (9/4-13/8-11/8) winners.

Record of course winners in the fourth contest:

1/5—Swaledale Lad (good to firm)

2/4—The Backup Plan (good & good to firm)

2/16—Gin Cobbler (good to firm & good to soft)

1/1—Mount Vesuvius (good to firm)

4.15: Although eight of the twelve runners are quoted in double figures in the trade press overnight, this race looks difficult to assess from a Placepot perspective, let alone trying to pick a winner of the contest!  THEATRE ACT is marginally preferred to SILVER SHUFFLE and OH SO GIGOLO. 

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/6 market leader duly obliged.

4.45: FLORAMOSS is the each way call in the ‘lucky last’, especially with Keith Reveley having scored with two of the three runners he has saddled at Sedgefield this season.  Keith boasts a 29% strike rate at the track during the last five years, figures which have produced 16 points of level stake profits.  GVS IRPORTENSA is expected to offer most resistance at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: The successful 5/2 favourite in 2014 is the only market leader to have claimed a toteplacepot position via four renewals of the toteplacepot finale.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sedgefield card on Tuesday: 

4—Maurice Barnes (0/8 this season)

4—Donald McCain (2/13  – Profit of 2 points to level stakes)

3—Chris Grant (0/9)

3—Vic Thompson (1/9 – loss of 1 point)

2—Lucinda Egerton (0/1)

2—Brian Ellison (0/7)

2—Micky Hammond (1/5 – Profit of 4 points)

2—Iain Jardine (---)

2—Malcolm Jefferson (0/1)

2—Dianne Sayer (2/5 – Profit of 10 points)

2—Ken Slack (2/10 – loss of 3 points)

2—Dan Skelton (0/2)

2—Mike Sowersby (1/7 – Profit of 6 points)

+19 trainers with one entry

51 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £29.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell (NH) - £61.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £171.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

 

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