MARKET RASEN – APRIL 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £539.40 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 57.5% units went through – 4/6* & 150/1
Race 2: 46.4% of the remaining units when through – 7/1 & 5/4*
Race 3: 48.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 4/1 – 4/1 (7/2)
Race 4: 44.8% of the remaining units went through – 10/11* (Win only)
Race 5: 23.4% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 (Win only – 5/4* unplaced)
Race 6: 9.9% of the units secured the dividend – 11/4 (Win only – 9/4 fav unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Market Rasen:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Mont Des Avalois) & 2 (The King Of May)
Leg 2 (2.30): 1 (Ataguiseamix), 6 (The Bottom Bar) & 4 (Midnight Chill)
Leg 3 (3.05): 2 (Zen Master) & 6 (Chandos Belle)
Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Red Devil Star), 3 (Roxyfet), 2 (Ballycamp) & 4 (Chateau Chinon)
Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Monbeg Charmer), 3 (Beggars Wishes) & 5 (Minella Scamp)
Leg 6 (4.40): 1 (Lip Service) & 3 (Cyclops)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
2.00: MONT DES AVALOIS should continue the good run of favourites in this event, chiefly at the expense of THE KING OF MAY who was only sent off as a 12/1 chance in the ‘Fred Winter’ at the Cheltenham Festival a few weeks ago. Similarly, Mon Eldorado appears to have plenty in hand of the other runner in this win only contest. There were three win only races on last year’s Placepot card which helped to produce a good dividend.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won five of the last seven renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at just 9/2.
2.30: Five-year-olds have won two of the three renewals of this event and ATAGUISEAMIX has a chance of extending the good run on behalf of vintage representatives, especially with Paul Nicholls having scored with ten of his last 25 runners. Recent rulings now inform us that Paul’s gelding has had a wind operation whereby his win and place chance in this grade/company cannot be questioned. Others in the mix include THE BOTTOM BAR and MIDNIGHT CHILL.
Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders to date have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.
3.05: Money has surfaced overnight for ZEN MASTER (trainer Charlie Mann saddled the winner three years ago) and along with CHANDOS BELLE, the six-year-old can dominate this field at the business end of proceedings. MR SNOOZY would be the alternative each way call if pressed, though at least one of the two ‘selections’ should finish in the frame without too much fuss.
Favourite factor: Only one joint favourite has won this event since 2010, with two of the last four winners having prevailed at 18/1 & 10/1.
Record of the three course winners in the field:
2/7—Mr Snoozy (2 x good to soft)
1/1—Zen Master (good)
3.35: RED DEVIL STAR strikes me as the likeliest winner of this event, though you only have to look at last year’s results in the three win only contests on the card to deduce that these races can bring about great Placepot rewards. Accordingly, I will add all four runners into the mix before retiring to the bar, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails. By all means add another bet into the mix using RED DEVIL STAR as a banker in the contest, which would offer you a better return if the rest of the races go to plan.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and bronze medals in win only events.
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
4.10: I’m shaking with fear in trepidation of a non-runner evolving, potentially turning this into another nightmarish win only contest! The pin has fallen on the trio of MONBEG CHARMER, BEGGARS WISHES and MINELLA SCAMP to get us through the crocodile infested waters at the Lincolnshire venue this afternoon.
Favourite factor: The two favourites thus far have secured gold and silver medals, though the second placed jolly failed to claim a Placepot position in a win only contest.
4.40: Never wishing to pay LIP SERVICE to a Placepot finale, but Fergal O’Brien’s raider (alongside CYCLOPS) should bring the bacon home for us again today.
Favourite factor: The same stats are in place in successive races on the card as the two jollies have finished first and second in this race too, with the silver medallist losing out on a Placepot position via a win only event.
Record of the two course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/9—Milly Baloo (soft)
Record of the course winner in the 7th (non Placepot) race:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.