LUDLOW - OCTOBER 11
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £243.30 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (The Statesman) & 3 (High Wells)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Still Believing), 3 (On Demand) & 4 (Poetic Lady)
Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Braqueur D’Or), 3 (Forever Field), 2 (Heist) & 4 (Always On The Run)
Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Tunnel Creek), 8 (Status Quo) & 7 (Dove Mountain)
Leg 5 (4.00): 4 (Mick Thonic), 2 (Mad Jack Mytton) & 1 (The Gipper)
Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Tempesatefloresco) & 1 (Man Look)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.55: The only way to start this meeting is to highlight the record of trainer Evan Williams who has saddled eight winners at the corresponding meeting during the last five years which would read well enough anyway, though particularly so as Evan let the other trainers off last year when not represented on the day! The first of his four runners (from seven options at the weekend) runs in the second race on the card, whilst digesting the fact that six of the Williams winners scored at odds ranging between 7/2 and 8/1. Upwards and onward by suggesting that the 11/10 trade press quote for THE STATESMEN in the this opening event was always looking wide of the mark, given that the Ian Williams trained Zoffany gelding won his last two races on the level when achieving his highest mark of 87 to date. Earlier in the year, Ian was quoted as saying “this horse is a real athlete who will make a lovely hurdler” and it looks as though the trainer fancies the early season three-year-old races as a prelim to a possibe tilt at the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham in March. We will see, though it’s worth pointing out that the record of favourites in this event is not good by any means whereby this will be a watching brief for yours truly, having included THE STATESMAN in my Placepot mix. One word of warning has to be offered however, as Ian would not want the ground riding too fast for his representative, perhaps wishing that this was the last race on the card rather than the first, with rain not due at Ludlow until the meeting starts. Others to consider include HIGH WELLS who cannot have the ground too fast from what we have witnessed thus far.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won via the last fourteen contests, during which time four gold medallists have scored at 25/1-25/1-20/1-11/1. Only five of the 13 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the period.
2.25: Not too many seven pound claimers can boast a 17% strike rate via their first sixteen winners under NH rules I’ll wager, though that is the record of Mitchell Bastyan whose record improves to 21% for Evan Williams from his six successful rides for the trainer thus far. The first Williams runner on the card (see previous race for phenomenal stats and facts) is STILL BELIEVING who has won on good ground here despite two victories at LudLow under heavy conditions. The only course winner in the field, STILL BELIEVING is the latest runner to be blessed by Mitchell’s claim though in ON DEMAND, Evan will know that he has at least one horse to beat. ON DEMAND will be saddled by Colin Tizzard who snared a 20/1 double at Fontwell on Friday. Neill Mulholland’s hat trick seeker POETIC LADY is the other potential winner in the line up from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ludlow card.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
3/14—Still Believing (2 x heavy & good)
3.00: This should be an entertaining event with Messers Nicholls and Henderson going head to head as we begin to home in on the NH season in real terms, especially with half decent Exeter and Chepstow meetings to follow during the next few days. Paul Nicholls (BRAQUEUR D’OR) and Nicky Henderson (FOREVER FIELD) can expect decent efforts from their two representatives, though HEIST and ALWAYS ON THE RUN are added into the equation in a race which could go a long way to deciding the size of the Placepot dividend by the end of play. The claimer aboard Tom George’s latter named representative has ridden six winners to date, four of which have been over fences and with no winners to his name over hurdles, Mr N George brings unusual stats into play. Connections of HEIST will be hoping that the radar forecast of no rain until early afternoon is accurate. That said, his eight victories to date include two wins under yielding conditions whereby I feel duty bound to include HEIST into the mix.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Ludlow programme.
Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:
1/3—Ozzy Thomas (good)
1/1—Heist (good to firm)
3.30: Olly Murphy saddles his first (two) runners here at Ludlow today and his recent Worcester winner TUNNEL CREEK was scoring on debut for the yard when giving ten pound claimer Fergus Gregory his fifth winner last month. Olly keeps the partnership intact here which is just as well in the face of opposition which includes the likes of stable companion DOVE MOUNTAIN and STATUS QUO.
Favourite factor: This is yet another new event on the Ludlow racecard.
Record of the course winners in the fourth contest:
1/2—Goal (good to soft)
1/4—Frozen Over (good)
4.00: Bigmarte has won at the first time of asking in two terms to date though the ex-Irish raider rates as poor value for money at around the 2/1 mark from my viewpoint. MAD JACK MYTTON (Jonjo O’Neill) and MICK THONIC (Colin Tizzard) represent two in form yards which make them Placepot candidates, notwithstanding the fact they are race fit compared to Harry Bannister’s projected favourite who has been off the track for six months. The Williams raider here is THE GIPPER who is the only course winner in the field, though his proven soft and heavy ground form dilutes his chance on this going, albeit he scrapes into my Placepot mix via my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency.
Favourite factor: This is the last of the four new Placepot races on the card.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/1—The Gipper (heavy)
4.35: On the face of it, the Evan Williams runner with the least chance of winning on the card is HANDS OF STONE, though it could be argued that only TEMPESTATEFLORESCO stands in his way, given that Colin Tizzard’s nine-year-old gelding looks thrown in on the best of his form. Connections of MAN LOOK will be outraged by that comment however as the Donald McCain raider has finished ‘in the two’ on his last five assignments, stats which include two victories. For the record, the last of the Evan Williams representatives runs in the 5.10 contest, namely Grania O’Malley who has been supported on the exchanges during the dead of night.
Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites to date have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday, followed by their five year ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued:
4 runners—Colin Tizzard (2/10 – loss of 5 points)
4—Evan Williams (35/209 – loss of 35 points)
3—Neil Mulholland (4/26 – loss of 6 points)
2—Bernard Llewellyn (0/13)
2—Noel C Kelly (Noel saddles his first runners at the track today)
2—Gary Moore (3/13 +6)
2—Olly Murphy (Olly saddles his first runners at the track today)
2—Henry Oliver (3/36 – loss of 13 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (9/74 – loss of 34 points)
2—Matt Sheppard (7/47 +10)
2—Dan Skelton (19/80 – loss of 10 points)
+ 39 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
66 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Nottingham: £22.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Towcester: £20.10 – 7 favourties – 4 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): £28.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced