DONCASTER - SEPTEMBER 13
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £231.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster:
Leg 1 (2.20): 2 (Shabaaby), 3 (Deamons Rock), 4 (John Kirkup) & 1 (Beatbox Rhythm)
Leg 2 (2.50): 6 (Guzman), 5 (Crownthorpe) & 2 (Nobleman’s Nest)
Leg 3 (3.20): 1 (Final Venture) & 2 (Desert Law)
Leg 4 (3.50): 6 (Off Art) & 4 (Hitman)
Leg 5 (4.20): 7 (Lahore) & 1 (Hyde Park)
Leg 6 (4.50): 3 (Sunbal), 1 (Mount Logan), 5 (Mirage Dancer) & 2 (Red Verdon)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.20: It remains to be seen what influence the weather has at Doncaster today but in the meantime on the projected soft ground, this is the first of two four runner (win only) contests on Town Moor this afternoon. Such events tend to produce good Placepot dividends though one is needed on the opening day of the meeting for speculative investors as the last three pots have produced an average divi of just £209.03, which for a top meeting on the racing calendar does not read well. That comment understates my thoughts, especially with the ‘past veterans’ race to negotiate half way through the Placepot card. Upwards and onward however by suggesting the ground is responsible (as much as anything else) for yours truly including all four runners in the first race before retiring to the bar. If pushed to make a selection I guess I would go with last time out soft ground winner Shabaaby, but all three rivals have genuine claims for one reason or another.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last nineteen favourites have prevailed (though only four of the last sixteen), whilst eleven market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.
2.50: 12 of the most recent 18 available win and place positions have been secured by horses carrying weights of 9-3 or more, statistics which include four (25/1-9/2-9/2-9/4) of the seven winners of late. Unfortunately, only Ventura Quest qualifies via the weight trend this time around and with Mark Johnston’s raider having shown a distinct liking for faster ground thus far, I have to swerve the trend on this occasion. Richard Fahey (saddled last year’s winning favourite) has thrown a spanner in the works having declared three horses and it’s worth noting that GUZMAN was coming in for some support at the time of writing. Stable companion CROWNTHORPE looks the stronger option on paper though with Paul Hanagan riding the first named representative, I’m struggling to split the pair. NOBLEMAN’S NEST won his inly race to date (via just three assignments) on the one occasion that the Poet’s Voice raider has contested a race with moisture in the ground (good to soft) which adds interest to proceedings.
Favourite factor: Six of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three (9/2, 3/1 & 13/8) winners.
3.20: 16 of the last 17 winners of this Listed event have carried weights of 9-7 or more which eliminated the bottom three (of six runners in total) from my enquiries. FINAL VENTURE and DESERT LAW are my tentative selections in a race in which I have cut my own throat to a fashion (no applause please) as I have limited myself to just two ‘selections’, having opted for all four runners in the ‘win only’ races on the Placepot card. Thesme finished second in the race last year and I guess he might have figured in my mix but for my preference to go for broke in the win only events, notwithstanding the fact that Nigel Tinkler’s raider sits (marginally) the wrong side of the weight barrier.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last nineteen years, whilst 14 of the 22 market leaders reached the frame during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/5—Desert Law (good)
3.50: Regular readers will know that I am not a great fan of novelty races (unless I select a winner!) in the middle of a meeting when toteplacepot bets are affected. This sport is (or should be) about fitness of horse and rider and there has to be a doubt about the 100% fitness of some of the retired pilots on this occasion. Little wonder that I am (along with plenty of readers I’ll wager) critical of the powers that be that are (supposedly) in charge of the sport. That said, we appear to have an edge on our side as four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals, whereby HITMAN could represent some each way value. However, Tim Easterby appears to have found an opportunity for OFF ART to record his first win since the Magna Carta was signed many years ago! Tim has enjoyed his share of success at this meeting down the years, most notably of course when Bollin Eric won the St Leger for the north back in 2002.
Favourite factor: Four of the seven favourites (all winners of their respective events) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/7—Off Art (good to soft)
4.20: Seven of the ten winners to date have carried 9-3 or less whereby the chance of LAHORE is respected, especially as Roger Varian’s Elusive Quality colt is the only one of the projected leading fancies to be maintaining its overnight price of 3/1 at the time of writing. We have to take a chance that Roger’s dual winner will act on the ground but then again, that’s what the sport of kings is all about. There is no ‘community chest’ to draw from in this pastime unfortunately! HYDE PARK could hardly be class as a prolific winner, though his two victories have come towards the back end of the season in the past and I cannot help but notice that Frankie Dettori’s mount is John Gosden’s only runner on the card. The weight stats are against HYDE PARK but possibly not from a Placepot perspective. The reserve nomination is awarded to NIGHT CIRCUS representing Charlie Appleby’s in form team.
Favourite factor: Four of the thirteen market leaders (via ten renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions to date (no winners).
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest on the card:
1/1—Hyde Park (good)
1/1—Lahore (good to firm)
4.50: I think I have made my intentions clear throughout the analysis that I would be including all four runners in my Placepot mix in the final leg of our favourite wager. Yes, Mount Logan won the race last year but this ground could be the ‘leveller’ that brings about a different result on this occasion though obviously, I am not willing to omit Roger Varian’s six-year-old from the equation. Favourites have a good record in the race as has Mount Logan (see both sets of stats below) but small fields have a habit of producing surprise results and a win for any of his three rivals could rubber stamp a decent Placepot return.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, the four market leaders which failed to win all missed out on Placepot positions. It's also worth pointing out that although favourites have a good record, two of the last seven winners scored at 22/1 & 16/1.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/3—Mount Logan (good & good to soft)
1/1—Mirage Dancer (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Doncaster card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Richard Fahey (4/69 – loss of 32 points)
3—Clive Cox (1/8 – loss of 3 points)
3—Michael Dods (0/18)
3—Richard Hannon (8/52 – loss of 4 points)
3—Paul Midgley (2/16 +11)
2—Rebecca Bastiman (0/4)
2—Karl Burke (loss of 14 points)
2—Ruth Carr (1/18 – loss of 11 points)
2—Simon Crisford (2/6 +1)
2—Scott Dixon (0/19)
2—Michael Mullineaux (1/5 +8)
2—Kevin Ryan (1/21 – loss of 17 points)
2—Roger Varian (4/22 – loss of 6 points)
+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
65 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Carlisle: £426.00 – 8 favourites – 4 winners & 4 unplaced
Uttoxeter: £322.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: £97.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced