BANGOR – NOVEMBER 15
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £392.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Bangor:
Leg 1 (12.40): 5 (Agamemmon), 3 (Cloudy Beach) & 9 (Just Georgie)
Leg 2 (1.10): 4 (Rene’s Girl) & 5 (The Nipper)
Leg 3 (1.45): 2 (Battle Of Shiloh), 8 (Sir Mangan) & 1 (Bigbadjohn)
Leg 4 (2.20): 2 (If The Cap Fits) & 1 (Demon D’Aunou)
Leg 5 (2.50): 2 (Dashing Oscar) & 1 (Midnight Tour)
Leg 6 (3.20): 6 (Pageburg), 1 (Beach Break) & 4 (Erick Le Rouge)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.40: Horses carrying 11-1 or more have claimed ten of the fourteen available Placepot positions, statistics which include four of the six winners at 6/1-11/4-2/1-11/8. Eight of the eleven runners qualify via the weight trend, whilst six and seven-year-olds have (equally) split four of the six contests. My short list consists of CLOUDY BEACH, JUST GEORGIE (despite being 16 ounces below the ‘superior’ weight barrier) and AGAMEMMON. The latter named Tom George raider represents a yard which has won with all three runners at the track this season.
Favourite factor: Five of the six market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include four winners. Market leaders come to the gig on a four timer on this occasion.
1.10: RENE’S GIRL represents last year’s winning yard (see favourite stats below), whilst Dan Skelton has saddled 13 of his last 45 runners to winning effect (29% strike rate), figures which have yielded 12 points of level stake profit. Accordingly, it’s not difficult to find that RENE’S GIRL has attracted overnight support. That said, THE NIPPER is unbeaten at this track and ran well enough on her reappearance at Wetherby at the recent Charlie Hall meeting at Wetherby to suggest that she is the main threat today. DUSKY LEGEND is admirably consistent from a Placepot perspective but is finding it difficult to win these days.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 favourite duly obliged for the Dan Skelton team. As well as the positive results for the stable this season which you can find below towards the foot of the column, Dan also secured a 27% strike rate at Bangor last season.
Record of the course winner in the field:
2/2—The Nipper (good & heavy)
1.45: Horses carrying 11-7 or more have won five of the eleven renewals to date, whilst eight-year-olds have won four of the last six contests. No horse possessed ticks in both of the relevant boxes last year, though BATTLE OF SHILOH and BIGBADJOHN qualify on both counts twelve months on. Both horses are quoted at around the 11/2 mark and with the ‘dead eight’ field still intact at the time of writing, the price could attract interest on both counts. SIR MANGAN completes my trio against the five remaining contenders.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (5/1 & 10/3**) market leaders.
Record of course winner in the third race:
1/1—Potters Legend (soft)
2.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven renewals whereby readers might be encouraged to take on the favourite (IF THE CAP FITS) with Jonjo’s vintage representative DEMON D’AUNOU. Certainly the pair should dominate at the business end of proceedings, though IF THE CAP FITS is expected to secure a second victory for trainer Harry Fry in as many years, albeit the wrong one of the two stable contenders last year won at 3/1 against Harry’s 8/11 favourite as far as the majority of punters were concerned. Thankfully we have no worries on that score this time around.
Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include seven winners.
2.50: Course winner DASHING OSCAR is the second (and last) Harry Fry entry on the card and as in the previous race, Harry appears to have found a decent opportunity for his declaration. Whether ‘Oscar’ can repel fellow Bangor winner MIDNIGHT TOUR is another matter entirely though either way, this pair a have a great deal going from them in Placepot terms. The fact that ‘Oscar’ is race fit this season might just give him the edge this afternoon. The last six runners saddled by Ian Williams since his great double on Saturday (via both codes) have subsequently been beaten, though COOL SKY looks sure to figure prominently in this grade/company, possibly without actually winning the contest.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have secured toteplacepot positions, albeit last year’s successful 6/4 market leader was the first to oblige from a win perspective.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/1—Midnight Tour (soft)
1/3—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)
3.20: This race invariably attracts some top trainers and this year is no exception. With five of the nine runners (the front quintet in the market at the time of writing) making their hurdling debuts here, it’s as well to include three runners (from my viewpoint) because however much ‘jungle drums’ are telling us about the contenders, juveniles race over timber are fraught with danger until horses have actually shown ability to handle the discipline on the racecourse. PAGEBURG (Alan King), BEACH BREAK (Donald McCain) and ERICK LE ROUGE (Nick Williams) should see us safely over the line between them, if we are still live going into the last leg of our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the finale, though it’s worth noting that just three market leaders have won. That said, the biggest priced winner to date was sent off at just 6/1.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Bangor card on Wednesday followed by this season’s stats and profits/losses accrued:
5 runners—Dan Skelton (8/21 +1)
4—Tom Symonds (0/2)
3—Harriet Bethell (No previous runners at Bangor this season)
3—Alan King (1/5 +2)
3—Donald McCain (8/27 +17)
2—Harry Fry (0/1)
2—Tom George (3/3 +7)
2—Phil Kirby (No previous winners)
2—Michael Mullineaux (0/9)
2—Ben Pauling (0/2)
2—Katy Price (0/6)
2—Sue Smith (No previous runners)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (2/5 +15)
2—Evan Williams (1/5 – loss of 1 point)
2—Nick Williams (0/1)
2—Venetia Williams (0/3)
+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Ayr: £4,965.30 – 7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced
Exeter: £240.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Newcastle (A/W): This is new fixture on the racing calendar