Placepot Pointers

Placepot pointers – Wednesday 16th March

CHELTENHAM – MARCH 16

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2015: £1,280.40 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend (all codes) in 2016 (calendar year): £647.43

Average NH Placepot dividend in 2016: £902.27

Average Cheltenham Placepot dividend in 2016: £361.57 (3 meetings)

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (1.30): 10 (Yanworth) & 11 (Yorkhill)

Leg 2 (2.10): 4 (No More Heroes) & 3 (More Of That)

Leg 3 (2.50): 17 (Days Of Heaven), 26 (Hunters Hoof), 11 (Avant Tout), 5 (Brother Tedd) & 13 (Beast Of Burden)

Leg 4 (3.30): 10 (Un De Sceaux) & 1 (Dodging Bullets)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Balthazar King), 7 (Josies Orders & 1 (Any Currency)

Leg 6 (4.50): 14 (Deigo Du Charmil), 12 (Jaleo), 18 (Ardamir) & 19 (Harley Rebel)

Suggested stake: 480  bets to 10p stakes

1.30: Willie Mullins has won three of the last eight renewals (Willie saddled the 16/1 runner up four years ago for good measure) and six-year-old YORKHILL appears to be the pick of the Mullins trio. Indeed, six-year-olds lead the five-year-olds 9-5 during the last 14 years, statistics which bring the likes of YANWORTH and (possibly) O O SEVEN into the mix.  Bookmakers will be fearful of a victory for YANWORTH which would start so many multiple bets on a winning note for speculative punters. Alan King's raider would also be the worst result for 'ante-post books' as well.  It's difficult to envisage a winning result for bookmakers in all honesty.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 21 market leaders—7 winners—7 placed—7 unplaced. First three in the betting: 63 runners--12 winners--18 placed--33 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Neptune':

1/2--Yanworth

2.10: Seven-year-olds have run riot in this event in recent times having won eight of the last last nine renewals, having also secured 16 of the last 21 renewals.  NO MORE HEROES looks the clear pick of the five vintage representatives this time around, though the course record of MORE OF THAT (see stats below) suggests that Jonjo O'Neill's eight-year-old could take the beating. BLACKLION is as tough as teak and could sneak into the frame at an each way price.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 22 market leaders—6 winners—6 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 63 runners--9 winners--19 placed--35 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'RSA Chase':

2/6--Blacklion

4/4--More Of That

1/2--Seeyouatmidnight

1/2--Vyta Du Roc

2.50: 11 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 11-0 or less which narrows the field down to eighteen (from twenty six) if you take the statistics literally, especially as horses with those weights have secured 16 of the total of 22 renewals of the Coral Cup thus far.  Six-year-olds have won six of the last 15 renewals and putting the stats an facts together produces an overnight short list of HUNTERS HOOF, DAYS OF HEAVEN, AVANT TOUT and BEAST OF BURDEN. Further up the handicap, BROTHER TED is also offered an each way/toteplacepot chance.

Favourite factor: Fate of recent favourites: 22 market leaders—1 winner—5 placed—16 unplaced. First three in the betting: 72 runners--5 winners--18 placed--49 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the Coral Cup:

1/1--Call The Cops

1/3--Commissioned

1/2--Long House Hill

1/9--The Romford Pele

3.30: 13 of the last 16 winners of the Champion Chase have emerged from the front three in the betting, the other gold medallists having started at 16/1 and 10/1 (twice). The Mullins/Walsh bandwagon moved ruthlessly on yesterday whereby UN DE SCEAUX is difficult to oppose, though defending champion DODGING BULLETS returns to defend his crown with realistic Placepot claims at the very least.  That said, only Master Minded has put back to back wins together (2008/09) since Viking Flagship achieved the feat in 1994/95.  I've looked back over the records for over 50 years and cannot find a horse that has achieved what SPRINTER SACRE is attempting to do by winning the race for a second time after a three year gap.

Favourite factor:  Fate of the favourites: 21 market leaders—7 winners—4 placed—10 unplaced. First three in the betting: 62 runners: 15 winners--20 placed--27 unplaced.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Queen Mother':

4/8--Dodging Bullets

1/4--Sire De Grugy

4/6--Sprinter Sacre

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1/1--Un De Sceaux

4.10: The unique cross country event was the first race to be added to the fixture in order to create a fourth day of the meeting back in 2005. The race has been won by an Irish trainer in nine of the 11 years to date, dominated by Enda Bolger who has saddled four winners and eight placed horses.  The race pleases others far more than yours truly if I am brutally honest, though BALTHAZAR KING brought a broad smile to my face two years ago. The Philip Hobbs raider is the focal point of this year's contenders from my viewpoint, especially as the ground has dried out so well over the last 48 hours.  Few would deny a victory for ANY CURRENCY who has finished second in each of the last two years, whilst the best chance the Irish have this time around lies with JOSIES ORDERS, though confidence is diluted to a fashion as Enda has declared four runners.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won two of the 11 contests to date (eight of the other ten market leaders finished out of the frame), whilst eight gold medallists emerged from the front three in the betting.

Cheltenham record of course winners in the 'Cross Country':

8/17--Balthazar King

1/8--Bless The Wings

2/3--Josies Orders

1/14--Quantitativeeasing

1/4--Rivage D'or

2/15--Sire Collonges

2/11--Third Intention

2/14--Uncle Junior

4.50: An extremely difficult toteplacepot finale in all honesty and trying to be as frank as possible, the only winner of the ‘Fred Winter’ I have nominated to date was Gaspara eight years ago when David Pipe’s winner was returned as one of the 9/2 joint favourites.  I’m not going to bury you in waffle (other than the fact that the last seven winners have carried 11-2 or less); suffice to suggest that I am banking on ARDAMIR, HARLEY RIVER, JALEO and DIEGO DU CHARMIL to see if we can secure the toteplacepot dividend, hoping we are live going into the sixth and final leg of our favourite wager.

Favourite factor: Two of the five favourites have finished in the frame since the last favourite prevailed back in 2010.  The last four gold medallists were returned at 40/1--33/1--25/1--25/1!

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Wednesday:

21--Willie Mullins

10--Nicky Henderson

7--Paul Nicholls

6--John Ferguson

5--Gordon Elliott

5--Alan King

4--Enda Bolger

4--Philip Hobbs

4--Jojnjo O'Neill

4--Dan Skelton

3--Rebecca Curtis

3--Gary Moore

3--Nigel Twiston-Davies

2--Mick Channon

2--Sandy Thomson

2--Dermot Weld

+ 32 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

117 declared runners

 

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6 replies
    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      Updated with suggested perm on Wedesday at 4.30am Paul – apologies offered!
      Mal.

  1. Paul says:

    Thanks Mal. Just re-read my comment – hope it didn’t come across badly. I much enjoy your work & musings.

    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      No worries Paul – great to know that you are ‘aboard’ Sir. Best of luck today and throughout the week – Mal.

  2. Paul says:

    I’m fairly new to the Placepot scene. Do you have an expected rate of return for such bets over the medium to long term?

    • MalBoyle
      MalBoyle says:

      Hi again Paul – This is a real imponderable to be honest because when you place ‘ordinary’ bets who know who your opponent is (bookmaker/layer/player), whereas when Joe Public is your ‘rival’, you don’t know the strength of the opposition!

      Pool bets have their critics and this is one of the reasons, because you never really know what the pot will pay, even of you land the dividend. I keep all kinds of stats and facts but I’m the first to put my hand up and say that this is a twofold bet, for reasons explained.

      The Sporting Life retained my daily service for fifteen years, testament to the potential of the bet, if not for my ‘expertise’!

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