NEWBURY – JANUARY 17
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
£5,155.70 (7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (1.20): 3 (Percy Street), 7 (Friday Night Live) & 1 (Final Choice)
Leg 2 (1.50): 1 (Ok Corral) & 12 (Whatswrongwithyou)
Leg 3 (2.25): 1 (Saint Calvados) & 3 (Tree Of Liberty)
Leg 4 (3.00): 9 (Indy Five), 5 (You Say What), 10 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Two Smokin Barrels)
Leg 5 (3.30): 11 (Kupatana) & 2 (Lady Of Lamanver)
Leg 6 (4.05): 7 (Morning Vicar), 8 (Up To No Good) & 1 (Baddesley Knight)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.20: I cannot ignore the fact (for openers) that James Bowen has ridden five winners for Nicky Henderson this season from just nine opportunities whereby the booking of this year’s sensational ‘newcomer’ for PERCY STREET catches the eye in no uncertain terms. FRIDAY NGHT LIVE could be anything entering the handicap division for the first time, whilst FINAL CHOICE gets the marginal nod over The Green Ogre for the third spot in my permutation. The record of Paul Henderson here at Newbury (0/32) suggests that the price of Doitforthevillage is plenty short enough at 7/2 at the time of writing. If the nine-year-old wins I lose, that’s racing.
Favourite factor: The opening event on the Newbury card is a new race with which to open proceedings.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/3—Final Choice (good to soft)
1.50: Local trainer Nicky Henderson secured the first running of this event twelve months ago and the Seven Barrows handler saddles a strong contender in proven soft ground winner O K CORRAL who only contests his fourth race, despite being an eight-year-old. There have obviously been lots of problems relating to Nicky’s Mahler gelding though fortunately, owner ‘JP’ has a few quid in the bank to take care of such individuals. Nicky throws a spanner in the works however, having also declared WHATSWRONGWITHYOU who has handled this type of ground plenty well enough in the past to suggest that the seven-year-old should not be merely passed off as the ‘second string’ of the two inmates. What’s Occurring is fancied to run into a place (probably at a respectable distance behind the front pair) at a double figure price.
Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 9/4 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position last year by sneaking a bronze medal.
2.25: As suggested so many times already by this columnist, Harry Whittington remains one of the underrated trainers in the sport from my viewpoint, a comment that will hopefully be endorsed today by another victory for his heavy ground course and distance winner SAINT CALVADOS. Although only two runners finished the course when scoring at the first time of asking in this green and pleasant land, SAINT CALVADOS is now a winner of four of his five starts and should be followed until beaten according to yours truly. That said, his three rivals here are all entitled to take their respective chances, the pick of which will arguably prove to be TREE OF LIBERTY given the ground on which Kerry Lee’s raider improved a fair few pounds the last day when scoring at Ludlow when making his debut for the yard.
Favourite factor: The two market leaders to date have snared gold and silver medals at 6/4 and 7/4 respectively.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/1—Saint Calvados (heavy)
3.00: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 11-2 or more, whilst eight-year-olds have secured four victories during the same period. Proven soft ground winner INDY FIVE boasts ticks in both of the trend boxes and with trainer David Dennis having saddled six of his last 21 runners to winning effect (level stake profit of 25 points during the period), David’s progressive dual winner can take this hike up in class in his stride. Others to consider include fellow vintage raider YOU SAY WHAT (David Pipe secured a 14/1 double on the corresponding card three years ago) and HORATIO HORNBLOWER whose course victory dilutes the negative weight factor to a fashion. The overnight reserve nomination is awarded to TWO SMOKIN BARRELS.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three successful market leaders.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
1/6—Horatio Hornblower (good)
3.30: Nicky Henderson will be looking to make amends for last year’s beaten odds on favourite who was cruising through to lead at the business end of the contest before falling with the prize at his mercy. Nicky saddles KUPATNA this time around and though the price will not be as ‘skinny’ as those on offer last year, Nico’s mount will be plenty warm enough following a half decent victory ‘between the flags’ ten months ago. LADY OF LAMANVER is not holding up too badly in the market against Nicky’s hot pot overnight in all honesty and having run a couple of good races under soft conditions before now, Harry Fry’s raider should figure prominently, though the six pound concession to KAUATANA could prove to be a tough ask.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite snared a bronze medal alongside a toteplacpot position before last year’s 4/9 looked like scoring in facile fashion before coming down two from home.
4.05: Five-year-olds have won both renewals thus far, albeit vintage representatives have accounted for 55% of the total number of runners via just the two contests. Vintage representatives are 5/6 to land the treble between them before ‘form’ is taken into account, with the pick of the relevant sextet on this occasion likely to prove to be MORNING VICAR and UP TO NO GOOD. The horses hail from the highly successful local yards of Nicky Henderson and Warren Greatrex and it will be something of a shock if both horses fail to finish in the frame. That said, horses who are not going to win at the first time of asking are often ‘looked after’ by riders on the run to the line whereby I am taking out insurance on BADDESLEY KNIGHT who only just lost out in a three way fight at Fontwell on his first day at school, with the fourth horse finishing well adrift of the trio. Conditions will be much softer on this occasion however whereby another Placepot position might please the relevant connections well enough in what should prove to be an informative contest.
Favourite factor: Detective are still searching for the two market leaders to date who both missed out on Placepot positions at odds of 6/5 and 15/8.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
6 runners—Nicky Henderson (7/25 +10) – 222/1096 – loss of 92 points
4—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 10/108 – loss of 36
4—Seamus Mullins (0/2) – 10/161 +18
3—Warren Greatrex (0/6) – 14/97 – loss of 9
3—Kerry Lee (0/1) – 2/10 +3
3—David Pipe (2/6 +9) – 39/281 +19
2—Rebecca Curtis (0/3) – 10/91 – loss of 17
2—Paul Henderson (0/2) – 0/32
2—Emma Lavelle (0/6) – 13/198 – loss of 88
2—Charlie Mann (0/1) – 15/220 – loss of 92
2—Gary Moore (0/7) – 22/365 – loss of 65
2—Ben Pauling (2/13 – loss of 6) – 9/38 – loss of 3
2—Fiona Shaw (First runners at Newbury this season) – 0/2
2—Robert Walford (0/2) – 2/14 –loss of 9
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
67 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Market Rasen: £11.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Newcastle: £39.90 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Lingfield: £47.90 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced