WETHERBY - OCTOBER 18
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £86.10 (9 favourites - 2 winners - 1 placed - 6 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (2.10): 1 (Plato’s Code) & 3 (Amadeus Rox)
Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Minella Aris), 2 (Work Du Breteau) & 5 (Cyrius Moriviere)
Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Hello Bertie), 1 (Alfiboy) & 2 (Atlantic Grey)
Leg 4 (3.45): 3 (Katgary), 6 (Delusionofgrandeur) & 8 (After Hours)
Leg 5 (4.20): 3 (Smooth Stepper), 1 (No Planning) & 4 (Just Mille)
Leg 6 (4.55): 6 (Today Please) & 4 (Little Pop)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: With one of the winners being ridden by a claimer to offset penalties and with no support for any of the other runners transpiring overnight, it would be churlish in the extreme to ignore the chances of PLATO’S CODE and AMADEUS ROX, particularly from a Placepot perspective. From what I have seen of the market just now, we could expect an absolutely massive Placepot dividend to be declared if these two horses fail to make the frame. The obvious reserve nomination is Something Brewing who won at Hexham on soft ground at the firs time of asking, with a subsequent victory being posted on the level under these projected (good) conditions. Karl Burke has his team in great form, though his raider Midnight Man would have to come on leaps and bounds for jumping hurdles to become involved in the finish.
Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Wetherby card given that it uses to be an event for maidens, whilst the category has changed from Class 5 to Class 4.
2.45: This is an interesting Novice Chase event which was won in 2015 by Twelve Roses who went on to finish second in the ‘Pendil’ at Kempton before closing out his season successful when landing (4/9) odds at Ascot in a Class 3 event. Last year’s gold medallist was Ballybolley who has won three of twelve subsequent events, the latest of which was in Listed company. Whether any of today’s contenders live up to that type of progress remains to be seen, though there was plenty to like about the jumping of MINELLA ARIS on his first start over the larger obstacles, albeit in an ordinary event at Southwell. The worry regarding his main challenger WORK DU BRETEAU relates to the drop back in trip. The ‘dark horse’ in the contest is CYRIUS MORIVIERE though proven winning form over fences in my general rule of thumb in this type of event. Daryl Jacob’s mount has yet to reach the frame in five attempts at this discipline, albeit I note that the seven-year-old was made favourite to win a Class 2 steeplechase at Doncaster earlier in the year.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 2/1 favourite found a 4/1 chance too good for him from a win perspective, albeit the market leader secured a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. Last year’s even money market leader went one better to event up the score against the ‘old enemy’. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way/Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/2—Cooking Fat (soft)
3.15: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last sixteen renewals which suggests that this year’s lone vintage representative ATLANTIC GREY has to be considered in the overnight mix, even though the Twiston-Davies raider might struggle to actually win the contest. More logical gold medallists in the field include HELLO BERTIE and ALFIBOY, one of eight Sue Smith runners on the card.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 16 favourites in this event have won, with 3/1-3/1-7/2-9/2 chances having snared gold in the other contests. 17 of the 25 market leaders have finished in the frame during an extended study period, statistics which include 14 winners.
3.45: Seven-year-olds lead the eight-year-olds 6-3 during the last eleven years in the Class 3 ‘Bobbie Renton’ event. A winner of five of his fourteen races to date (3/7 in chase events), seven-year-old DELUSIONOFGRANDEUR is the only course winner in the race with that success having been gained under good to soft conditions. I’m not sure there will be enough moisture in the ground for Sue Smith’s grand inmate to score but his Placepot chance is there for all to see. The other seven-year-old in the line up is KATGARY who has been the subject of win and place support overnight, whilst AFTER HOURS completes my trio against the remaining four contenders.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last seven renewals of this event, albeit that three of the four jollies (joint favourites were returned last year) that failed to win their respective events finished out with the washing, missing out on Placepot positions.
Record of course winner in the fourth event on the card:
1/2—Delusionofgrandeur (good to soft)
4.20: All ground comes alike to Sue Smith’s ten-year-old inmate NO PLANNING who has won four times around this circuit, very rarely offering a disappointing effort if memory serves correctly. Whether the ten-year-old can score following a five month break from the track is open to some doubt I guess, whereby I am adding stable companion SMOOTH STEPPER into the Placepot equation alongside JUST MILLY. SMOOTH STEPPER has finished ‘in the three’ in half (6/12) of his steeplechase assignments thus far, albeit form a Placepot perspective, Danny Cook’s mount needs to finish in the first two on this occasion.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Wetherby programme.
Record of course winners in the fifth race:
4/7—No Planning (2 x good to soft – good – heavy)
1/3—Nautical Nitwit (good)
1/2—Smooth Stepper (good to soft)
1/5—Lough Salt (good to soft)
4.55: Thankfully all ‘dead eight’ contenders remain intact at the time of writing, especially as I have used up my quota of offering three runners in a race enough times earlier on the card. Upwards and onward in positive fashion by suggesting that TODAY PLEASE and LITTLE POP will land the dividend for us if we have made it safely through to the finale of our favourite wager. Seven-year-olds have won three of the five renewals whereby TODAY PLEASE gets the marginal call over Little Pop on this occasion. Six months off the track when asked to carry 11-9 might just stop Nomoreblackjack in his tracks, though Sue Smith’s six-year-old representative is not passed over easily.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader in the Placepot finale following five contests, though three of the six favourites at least reached the frame (exact science).
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card on Wednesday – followed by trainer stats during the last five years + level stake profit/losses accrued:
8 runners—Sue Smith (28/190 – loss of 69 points)
5—Phil Kirby (14/102 – loss of 6 points)
3—Brian Ellison (1/15 – loss of 11 points)
2—Karl Burke (1/12 – loss of 9 points)
2—Micky Hammond (18/208 – loss of 70 points)
2—Alan King (6/35 – loss of 6 points)
2—Malcolm Jefferson (9/67 – loss of 16 points)
2—John Mackie (2/15 – Slight profit)
2—James Moffat (1/16 – loss of 6 points)
2—Jonjo O’Neill (15/77 –loss of 18 points)
2—Tim Reed (0/5)
2—Henry Oliver (2/14 – loss of 2 points)
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/36 – loss of 12 points)
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Nottingham: £36.10 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced
Kempton (A/W): £238.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced
Lingfield: This is the replacement meeting for Bath which was abandoned some time ago