NOTTINGHAM – NOVEMBER 1
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £91.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 12 placed - 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Nottingham:
Leg 1 (12.30): 6 (Tamkeen), 5 (King’s Proctor) & 9 (UAE Soldier)
Leg 2 (1.00): 5 (Ispolini) & 6 (Petite Palais)
Leg 3 (1.30): 7 (Rosarno), 8 (Monaadhil) & 3 (Maratha)
Leg 4 (2.00): 8 (Master Archer) & 2 (St Mary’s)
Leg 5 (2.30): 9 (Ebitda), 4 (Apricot Sky) & 6 (Fantasy Keeper)
Leg 6 (3.00): 11 (Break The Silence), 8 (World Record) & 7 (Lucky Esteem)
Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.30: This maiden event is named after John Gosden’s great warrior Golden Horn who won this race as a juvenile before setting out on an incredible career at the highest level. John scored with a 25/1 chance in one of the divisions twelve months ago, though his only entry today runs in the second heat. Connections of TAMKEEN and KING’S PROCTOR might prove to be the main beneficiaries, though Roger Varian’s Dansili newcomer UEA SOLDIER is another option to consider.
Favourite factor: Five renewals had slipped by since the previous favourite obliged before one of last year’s (3/1) favourites (via two divisions) obliged. Four of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame. Talking of market leaders, Golden Horn was not even sent off as favourite (a 15/8 chance) when scoring here back in 2014 on debut.
1.00: I have a feeling that this will be the stronger of the two divisions of this contest, with drums having been beating on behalf of Charlie Appleby’s Derby entry ISPOLINI for some considerable time. Charlie boasts a 51% strike rate relating to his juvenile winners against all of his gold medallists this season, despite the fact that two-year-olds account for just 37% of his total number of runners this season. Charlie’s Dubawi colt demands centre stage, even though John Gosden saddles a seemingly nice type in PETITE PALAIS. Rich Identity and Come On Tier have the set a reasonable standard thus far however, whereby the two newcomers in dispatches will have to live up to their billing to lift the prize in a fascinating contest.
Favourite factor: This is the second division of the opening event on the card whereby the same stat apply. Five renewals had slipped by since the previous favourite obliged before one of last year’s (3/1) favourites (via two divisions) obliged. Four of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame. Talking of market leaders, Golden Horn was not even sent off as favourite (a 15/8 chance) when scoring here back in 2014 on debut.
1.30: Five-year-olds have won three of the last six contests during which time, two 25/1 chances have scored, whilst a 16/1 vintage representative was beaten a heck in last year’s renewal. Trainers are seemingly already in the ‘hibernation’ stage however, as the vintage is not represented this time around! The last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-12 and putting the stats and facts together, a short list of ROSARNO, MONAADHIL and MARATHA emerges from the gloom in a race which should not prove difficult to win. The trio are listed in order of preference, especially as Charlie Hills (Rosarno) has saddled two of his last three runners to winning effect, the other representative have snared a silver medal. Rosarno has got away with a two pound rise following his win over course and distance three weeks ago.
Favourite factor: Just two favourites have won this event during the last eleven years, with six renewals have passed by since the last successful market leader was recorded. The last six favourites have barely been sighted in all honesty (no Placepot positions gained).
Record of course winners in the third race:
1/1—Rosarno (good to soft)
2.00: All five winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1 which eliminates Saved By The Bell from my perspective in what is currently a nine runner event. James Fanshawe seems to have lost the winning habit of late, though plenty of his horses have been successful from a Placepot angle, words that sum up his entry MASTER ARCHER almost perfectly, other than the fact that the Mastercraftsman gelding remains a maiden following nine assignments. George Wood reduces today’s burden by a useful three pounds which offers the three-year-old a fine chance to put the record straight. From a win perspective, MASTER ARCHER enters my ‘last chance saloon’ today. I’m aware that the relevant claimer takes the selection into the ‘inferior’ sector of the weights, but even yours truly deviates from his self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency from time to time. Gary Moore has his runners in terrific form whereby Whinging Willie is difficult to ignore, though ST MARY’S is rated as the main danger to the selection on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Four of the six favourites (via five renewals) have claimed Placepot positions by winning their respective events.
Record of course winners in the fourth event:
1/1—Bertie Moon (good to firm)
1/1—Stormin Tom (good to firm)
2.30: Three and four-year-olds have shared nine of the last eleven renewals, with the junior representatives edging it via a 5-4 margin in recent years. Ten of the last twelve winners have carried a minimum burden which leaves us six runners to assess (taking potential claims into account), the pick of which will hopefully prove to be EBITDA with Scott Dixon being back among the winners of late. The Michael Dods pair APRICOT SKY and MININGOLD might offer challenges at the business end of the contest, whilst course winner FANTASY KEEPER cannot be left out of the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Only one favourite has prevailed during the last nine years.
Record of course winners in the fifth event:
1/3—Fantasy Keeper (soft)
3.00: BREAK THE SILENCE is another Scott Dixon runner on the card with definite claims, with Scott’s Rip Van Winkle gelding only having been penalised three pounds for a much deserved win at Brighton recently. LUCKY ESTEEM could outrun her 14/1 quote from a Placepot angle I’ll wager, whilst WORLD RECORD is a consistent type in this low grade.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Nottingham programme.
Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Berkeley Vale (good to soft)
1/13—Ace Master (heavy)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Nottingham card on Wednesday - followed by their ratios at the track this season + level stake profit/losses accrued:
4 runners—Tim Easterby (0/12)
4—Richard Guest (0/17)
3—Andrew Balding (0/3)
3—Karl Burke (1/18 +3)
3—Susan Corbett (No previous runners this season)
3—Richard Fahey (7/42 – loss of 3 points)
3—Gary Moore (No previous runners this season)
2—Michael Appleby (7/55 – loss of 7 points)
2—Rebecca Bastiman (0/6)
2—Mick Channon (5/26 +75)
2—Scott Dixon (4/11 +3)
2—Michael Dods (0/5)
2—Ed Dunlop (3/22 +3)
2—Mick Easterby (2/14 – loss of 4 points)
2—John James Fearn (No previous runners this season)
2—Mark Johnston (2/25 – loss of 17 points)
2—Luke McJannet (No previous runners this season)
2—Paul Midgley (1/14 – loss of 5 points)
2—Lawrence Mullaney (1/2 +2)
2—Roger Varian (4/21 – loss of 11 points)
2—Ed Walker (0/8)
+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
95 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Fakenham: £11.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed
Taunton: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar
Kempton (A/W): £236.00 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced