NEWBURY - DECEMBER 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £33.70 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newbury:
Leg 1 (12.30): 1 (Style De Garde) & 3 (Doctor Bartolo)
Leg 2 (1.00): 6 (Doux Pretender), 16 (Potterman) & 14 (Pacific De Baune)
Leg 3 (1.30): 3 (Baden), 1 (Cosmos Des Obeaux) & 6 (Holbrook Park)
Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (Happy Diva), 5 (Tacenda) & 3 (Ms Parfois)
Leg 5 (2.40): 4 (Bally Gilbert), 1 (Ramonex) & 2 (Red Riverman)
Leg 6 (3.15): 7 (Melrose Boy) & 10 (Warthog)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.30: Nicky Henderson has won this opening event on two occasions during the last nine years and with STYLE DE GARDE having been declared by the local Seven Barrows maestro, the ratio looks set to improve this afternoon. Solid as a rock at even money on almost every board at the time of writing, connections might have most to worry about from DOCTOR BARTOLO who ran well enough on debut at Wetherby to suggest that he would have been a short priced favourite here has Nicky declined the gig. Today’s stats at the foot of the column offer not only the seasonal ratios here at Newbury, but also the career figures for every trainer who has two or more runners on the card. We can deduce that during his lifetime as a trainer, Nicky boasts a 20% per cent ratio via 218 winners, compared to the relevant stats of Alan King (Doctor Bartolo) whose figures stand at 11% via 60 gold medallists. Nicky might again have the edge in the first race on the card.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won ten of the last 15 contests, with the other gold medallists scoring at 25/1-16/1-7/1-7/1. 13 of the 16 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.
1.00: Nicky Henderson has won five of the last 16 renewals (without being represented every year by any means) whereby DOUX PRETENDER is the first name on the team sheet. Nicky’s four-year-old raider ran well enough on debut at Huntingdon last season (despite being a beaten favourites) to suggest that a small race could be there for the taking though once again, it is Alan King who stands in his way as the Wiltshire based handler has declared POTTERMAN, with this pair also expected to fight out the finish in much the same way as their raiders in the opening event. That said, Nicky throws a potential spanner in the works having also entered PACIFIC DE BAUNE who could upset the applecart in a race which should not prove difficult to win, certainly compared to the first event on the card.
Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders have obliged to date alongside two joint favourites. 15 of the 19 favourites have secured Placepot positions.
1.30: The last nine renewals have been won by horses carrying a minimum weight of eleven stones with only Abbreviate potentially missing out this year via a jockey claim. That still leave six runners to assess in this competitive ‘short field’ event, with my short list concentrating on BADEN, COSMOS DES OBEAUX and HOLBROOKE PARK. Six-year-olds have won four of the last five renewals whereby the trio is listed in order of preference. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Nine of the 11 favourites (four winners) have claimed Placepot positions to date.
2.05: HAPPY DIVA has finished second in four of her six subsequent assignments after securing back-to-back victories on good to soft ground, whereby Kerry Lee’s six-year-old deserves to win another contest. Anthony Honeyball has had his team in sparkling form for some time now and the trainer has placed TACENDA to good effect here and it’s worth noting that both of these horses were backed overnight with the majority of firms. Stable companion MS PARFOIS is added into the Placepot equation in a typically fascinating short field contest at Newbury. Two Swallows receives the reserve nomination.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newbury card.
2.40: Ben Pauling just missed out in my Placepot permutation in the previous event on the card, though inmate BALLY GILBERT finds his way into my mix in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager, given his third placed effort at Sandown twelve days ago. A similar performance will take the Stowaway gelding very close here I’ll wager, with RAMONEX and RED RIVERMAN expected to offer challenges at the business end of the contest.
Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Newbury programme.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/2—Exmoor Mist (soft)
1/4—Whispering Harry (heavy)
3.15: Five-year-olds have landed nine renewals during the last 15 years whilst vintage representatives have secured 15 of the last 24 available Placepot positions for good measure. The pick of this year's five vintage representatives should prove to be MELRIOSE BOY and WARTHOG. Both horses are the only runners on the card respectively for Harry Fry and David Pipe. Harry secured the prize two years ago, albeit his 4/6 favourite was turned over last year when securing the silver medal. Nicky Henderson’s raider Mr Whipped is feared most.
Favourite factor: Five of the last 15 renewals have been secured by favourites, during which time, 10 winners have scored at odds of 11/2 or less, though I should point out that last year’s gold medallist scored at 25/1.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card on Wednesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + level stake profits/losses accrued on both counts:
7 runners—Nicky Henderson (3/16 – loss of 2 points) – 218/1087 – loss of 105
6—Alan King (0/10) – 60/547 – loss of 170 points
5—Ben Pauling (2/7 – Slight loss) – 9/32 +2
3—Colin Tizzard (2/9 – Slight profit) – 24/199 – loss of 43
2—Kim Bailey—(First runners this season) – 22/161 – loss of 132
2—Vic DFartnall (First runners this season) – 12/67 +7
2—Oliver Greenall (First runners this season) – 0/2
2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 5/41 – loss of 15
2—Gary Moore (0/3) – 22/358 – loss of 58
2—Seamus Mullins (First runners this season) – 10/159 +20
2—Fergal O’Brien (1/5 – loss of 3 points) – 7/46 +16
2—Oliver Sherwood (1/5 +8) – 61/323 +3
2—Jamie Snowden (0/1) – 2/31 – loss of 19
2—Bill Turner (First runners this season) – 0/3
2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (0/9) – 65/600 – loss of 105
2—Evan Williams (0/2) – 7/91 – loss of 13
2—Nick Williams (0/1) – 15/98 +9
+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
79 declared runners