ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 20
Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:
2017: £156.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
2016: £165.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
2015: £301.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2014: £86.70 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)
2013: £5,559.90 (8 favourites: 1 winner & 7 unplaced)
2012: £1,326.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)
2011: £393.10 (7 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)
Average Placepot dividend: £1,141.39
46 favourites - 14 winners - 10 placed - 22 unplaced
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 39.5% units went through – 2/1* - 66/1 – 20/1
Race 2: 84.2% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 10/11* - 14/1
Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 40/1 – 11/4
Race 4: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 – 10/1 – 9/2 (2/1)
Race 5: 10.2% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1 (13/2)
Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 7/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (6/1)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot:
Leg 1 (2.30): 17 (Shades Of Blue) & 1 (Chelsea Cloisters)
Leg 2 (3.05): 11 (Stream Of Stars) & 5 (Kew Gardens)
Leg 3 (3.40): 1 (Hydrangea) & 4 (Arabian Moon)
Leg 4 (4.20): 2 (Cracksman) & 6 (Poet’s Word)
Leg 5 (5.00): 32 (Seniority), 21 (Settle For Bay), 18 (Cape Byron), 24 (Medahim) & 26 (Mukalal)
Leg 6 (5.35): 15 (Society Power), 17 (Symbolization) 14 (Purser) & 18 (Tabdeed)
Suggested stake: 320 bets to 10p stakes
2.30: Clive Cox denied Wesley Ward securing a hat trick in this event twelve months ago and the two trainers could be locked in a dual up front via their respective individuals this year, namely SHADES OF BLUE and CHELSEA CLOISTERS. The exchanges are offering 10/1 bar the two at the time of writing, though punters with burned fingers are still queuing up at the casualty department of the nearest hospital yesterday after the demise of the leading contenders in the opening race of the meeting. I doubt that this pair will finish out of the frame however, offering up KURIOUS as the each way call whose sire won group races in Australia over sprint trips from the phenomenal Exceed And Excel line of thoroughbreds.
Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 renewals, whilst 16 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.
3.05: Although both trainers have other runners in the race, John Gosden (STREAM OF STARS) and Aidan O’Brien (KEW GARDENS) look set to lock horns at the business end of the contest with their respective raiders. John won with this year’s Gold Cup hope Stradivarius twelve months ago and I’m just siding with his inmate this time around, albeit Aidan is looking for his fifth victory in the race during the last nine years. LYNWOOD GOLD could give each way investors a decent run for their collective monies, with Mark Johnston also boasting a good record in the contest down the years. Only Sir Henry Cecil can beat Mark’s tally of seven winners in the Queen’s Vase, with maestro having gone one better during his wonderful career.
Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions of late, statistics which include seven winners. 19 of the last 21 winners of the Queens Vase were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.
Record of the course winner in the 'Queen’s Vase':
1/1—Stream Of Stars (good to firm)
3.40: Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting 29 horses that have claimed Placepot positions from the 42 available places to date, statistics which includes twelve of the fourteen winners. Indeed, four-year-olds have won the last nine renewals of this contest and I fully expect the likes of HYDRANGEA and ARABIAN HOPE to represent the vintage to good effect for their famous connections. Third spot could go to Urban Fox at around the 10/1 mark from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Ten of the sixteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include five winners.
Record of the two course winners in the 'Duke of Cambridge':
1/3—Urban Fox (good to firm)
4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 16 of the 17 renewals of this Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes event since the turn of the Millennium and the trend will be extended this year as Desert Encounter (the only other runner outside of the relevant horses) surely has little chance of prevailing. John Gosden enjoyed a sparkling day yesterday but he will be looking for compensation for the defeat of inmate Jack Hobbs in this event twelve months ago. The 2/1 favourite folded like the proverbial pack of cards that day, though stable representative Cracksman will be more like a 4/7 chance today with ‘Frankie’ boasting definite claims of extending his lead as top jockey at the meeting after his treble yesterday. Dettori has now ridden 59 Royal Ascot winners, scoring at least once in 23 years of his glittering career. Surely only POET’S WORD can be given a chance against the Gosden/Dettori bandwagon.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last 21 favourites have won, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders have reached the frame.
Record of the three course winners in the feature race on the card:
13—Desert Encounter (good to firm)
5.00: 15 of the last 20 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven contests. Five-year-olds have won three of the other five renewals since 2005. Six of the first eight horses home four years were drawn 22 or higher in a 28 strong field on fast ground, whilst the other two places were filled by runners emerging from stall numbers 14 & 16. Last year’s 25/1 winner Zhui Feng was the second horse mentioned in despatches but Amanada Perrett’s raider runs from trap two this time around. Pat Dobbs is sure to take them along at a decent clip on the far side, though preference is for the draw/vintage/weight trends to pay dividends again via the likes of SENIORITY (drawn 30), SETTLE FOR BAY (22), CAPE BYRON (25) and MEDAHIM (28). The reserve nominations are MUKALAL (32) and KYNREN (11).
Favourite factor: Only five of the last 24 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner--nine years ago).
Record of the four course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup:
1/5—Zhul Feng (good to firm)
1/1—Cape Byron (soft)
2/5—Raising Sand (good & Good to soft)
1/1—Bless Him (good to firm)
Draw statistics for the last eleven renewals of the race (most recent result listed first) + SP details:
26-22-18-11 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1
4-26-20-10 (28 ran-soft) – 10/1-8/1-14/1-20/1
11-19-10-21 (30 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-9/1-16/1-25/1
33-14-23-29 (28 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-14/1-33/1-14/1
6-2-10-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-40/1-50/1-25/1
33-18-21-13 (30 ran-good) – 16/1-33/1-50/1-66/1
24-30-25-14 (28 ran-good) – 12/1-7/1*-20/1-33/1
11-12-2-5 (29 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-12/1-12/1-12/1
33-29-30-13 (25 ran-good to firm) – 4/1*-25/1-9/1-16/1
27-30-26-25 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-10/1-25/1-33/1
17-12-27-1 (26 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-16/1-50/1-17/2
The average priced winner during this study period: 13/1
Average priced placed horse: 18/1
Horses drawn 1-15: 4 winners – 15 placed
Horses drawn 16+: 7 winners – 19 placed
If you fancy playing the forecast/Tricast wagers, it might prove best to perm high numbered horses looking at recent results, irrespective of the form lines!
On good to firm ground in 2009 & 2008 respectively, these odds were realised:
Exacta forecasts: 159/1 & 303/1. In 2009, the Tricast paid 366/1 despite the favourite winning, whilst the Trifecta in 2008 paid 6,119/1. Those were the figures I offered last year before the Exacta forecast paid £559.90 on fast ground twelve months ago, the first two horses home having emerged from stalls 16 & 22.
5.35: 28 of the last 42 available Placepot positions (67%) have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite the fact that favourites had a poor recent record in the contest before the 2013 market leader prevailed. 11 of the last 15 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1, though three of the last four results have bucked that trend. Upwards and onward in positive mode as much as is humanly possible in another daunting renewal of the Jersey Stakes. Surprisingly perhaps, I looked at this race first, which suggests just how difficult the contest could be, even from a Placepot perspective with just three places up for grabs. My pin has fallen on the quartet of SOCIETY POWER, SYMBOLIZATION, PURSER and TABDEED.
Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten before the 9/2 market leader obliged in 2013. Things seemed to have taken a turn for the better as the two 9/2 joint favourites four years ago filled the forecast positions before results returned to negative type in each of the following two years before the 2/1 marker leader prevailed twelve months ago. Ten of the relevant market leaders claimed Placepot positions during the study period.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale (Jersey Stakes):
1/1—Mukalal (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.