SANDOWN – SEPTEMBER 20
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £110.90 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (1.30): 2 (African Friend), 4 (Artscape) & 5 (Coastal Cyclone)
Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Kitaabaat) & 5 (Falcon Eye)
Leg 3 (2.35): 3 (Il Primo Sole) & 1 (Last Voyage)
Leg 4 (3.05): 3 (Laidback Romeo), 7 (D’bai) & 5 (Richard Pankhurst)
Leg 5 (3.40): 8 (Clearly), 7 (Dynamic) & 3 (Madeleine Bond)
Leg 6 (4.15): 2 (Stone The Crows), 7 (Rake’s Progress) & 11 (Makkadangdang)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.30: Some housekeeping to attend to before I commence play as 32/35 winners at this correspond meeting during the last five years have won at a top price of 9/1, stats which include no less than 15 successful favourites! Even the other three gold medallists ‘only’ started at 14/1 and 16/1 (twice). Three of the four winners of the opening event have carried a minimum weight of 9-1 thus far, stats which eliminate the bottom four horses in the handicap if you believe in trends which by now (after 17 years of daily advice), you do. The pick of the relevant ‘survivors’ will hopefully prove to be AFRICAN FRIEND, ARTSCAPE and COASTAL CYCLONE, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Four favourites to date and we have yet to see any of them finishing in the frame! That said, all four winners have, at least, been returned in single figures (9/1, 7/1, 5/1 & 4/1).
2.00: Owen Burrows introduced a nice looking prospect to winning effect at Yarmouth yesterday and stable companion KITAABAAT should at least ‘trouble the judge’ at the third time of asking in this grade/company. Owen’s Dansili colt has only been beaten by an aggregate of two and a quarter lengths thus far and Jim Crowley’s mount should reach the frame at the very least. FALCON EYE ‘splits the books’ here, ranging between 10/3 and 5/1 as I write though either way, Charlie’s Appleby’s once raced juvenile looks set to become competitive at the business end of proceedings after a decent enough debut effort at Newmarket a couple of months back.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.
2.35: This event has already turned in to a ‘win only’ contest with just the four runners now set to face the starter. I often include all contenders in these win only events in the hope that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails though in this instance, all the overnight money has been spilt between IL PRIMO SOLE and LAST VOYAGE. Richard Hughes appears to have a nice type in Ragstone Road but he meets two strong rivals on this occasion.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/3 (John Gosden trained) favourite duly obliged before last year’s 15/8 market leader failed to reach the frame in a short field event. New readers might want to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
3.05: Seven of the eight winners of this Listed event have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst three-year-olds have claimed four of the last six contests. Clive Cox is surely in the form of his life I would tentatively suggest, as his last thirteen winners have prevailed via a 46% strike rate! Clive saddles LAIDBACK ROMEO here at an each way price which was around the 12/1 mark when writing this column. It’s worth noting (perhaps) that one of two Clive Cox scorers on this card during the study period was returned at 16/1. Clive’s only other runner today is an 8/1 chance at Yarmouth (no runners at all tomorrow) whereby an each way double might prove fruitful. Others of interest as dawn breaks over the City of Bristol this morning include D’BAI and the slightly enigmatic John Gosden raider RICHARD PANKHURST.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed via eight renewals during the last decade. Seven of the ten favourites have claimed Placepot positions thus far.
Record of the course winners in the fourth race:
2/6—Laidback Romeo (2 x good to firm)
1/2—Khafoo Shememi (good to firm)
1/1—Larchmont Lad (good to soft)
3.40: Nine of the last twelve winners of this Class 4 handicap event for fillies have carried a maximum weight of 8-13, including two gold medallists which were returned at 33/1 & 16/1. CLEARLY very much looks the pick of the four qualifiers via the weight trends though that said, DYNAMIC is a useful rival sitting just three pounds further up the handicap. There is an old saying that if you fall off your bike when learning to ride, you should get straight back on and that is the case here with the underrated claimer Georgia Cox climbing back aboard MADELEINE BOND after their ‘disagreement’ shortly after the start at Yarmouth the last day. This trio will get us safely through to the Placepot finale if we were live going into the fifth leg.
Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have won at 7/2, 3/1 & 15/8 alongside a 6/1 co favourite during the last twelve years though that said, the last four jollies have finished out of the frame.
Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:
1/1—Al Nafoorah (good)
1/1—Finale (good to soft)
4.15: MAKKADANGDANG represents the yard of Andrew Balding who has saddled three winners at this fixture during the last five years which were all returned as favourites of their respective events. No trainer can equal Andrew’s figure though unless there is a dramatic plunge on the bottom weight, Andrew’s Mastercraftsman gelding should be returned in double figures which is worth a minimum stake win and place wager from my viewpoint. That said, the last ten winners have carried 8-12 or more to victory which also brings other each way types such as STONE THE CROWS and RAKE’S PROGRESS into the equation.
Favourite factor: The last eight winners have scored at a top price of 8/1 though just one successful market leader was registered during the period. Six of the last 10 favourites have snared Placepot positions.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/3—Jupiter Light (good to firm)
1/3—Mister Blue Sky (good to soft)
1/1—The Statesman (good to firm)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Sandown card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
7 runners—Richard Hannon (9/56 – loss of 5 points)
6—John Gosden (4/30 – loss of 10 points)
4—Charlie Hills (3/21 (+3)
4—Hugo Palmer (0/11)
3—Charlie Appleby (2/11 – loss of 7 points)
3—Andrew Balding (1/24 - +17)
3—Harry Dunlop (0/7)
2—Henry Candy (2/11 – loss of 4 points)
2—Roger Charlton (4/15 – loss of 5 points)
2—Simon Crisford (3/6 +10)
2—Ed Dunlop (2/11 – slight profit)
2—Ed de Giles (0/2)
2—Philip Hide (0/5)
2—Stuart Kittow (0/3)
2—Roger Teal (0/4)
2—Roger Varian (6/15 +2)
+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
78 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Beverley: £54.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced
Yarmouth: £12.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Kelso: £198.70 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced