LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 21
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £845.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed 3 unplaced
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow:
Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Awake At Midnight), 16 (Pearl Of The West) & 6 (Lord Napier)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Town Parks), 2 (Coastal Tiep), 3 (Rayvin Black) & 4 (Seymour Star)
Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Otter Moon) & 3 (Royal Irish Hussar)
Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)
Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Spider’s Bite) & 8 (The Devils Drop)
Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Master Of Finance), 2 (Vocaliser) & 7 (Road To Rome)
Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Five and six-year-olds have generally dominated this opening event and with the combined represented vintage being 1/3 to extend the good run between them before form in taken into consideration, the edge should be enhanced this time around. AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT and LORD NAPIER head my overnight ratings. For the record, six-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer though that said, money is piling up for PEARL OF THE WEST in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing. Perhaps that scenario is unfolding with the uncertainty of the Philip Hobbs runners just now regarding AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT. Philip is not running many horses just now which is understandable given his 1/23 ratio this month though on the flip side, market leaders have a fabulous record in this event if Richard Johnson’s mount can cling on to favouritism.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (11/4, 7/4, 11/8, 6/5, 5/6 & 4/6) winners.
2.25: This new race comes under the ‘find me at the bar’ heading because as a ‘win only’ contest with little to choose between the quartet at first glance, the move is to include all four runners, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails. For the record, Kerry Lee’s hat trick seeker Town Parks would be the call if I was forced to make a nomination.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/3—Town Parks (soft)
1/1—Rayvin Black (good)
2/4—Seymour Star (2 x soft)
3.00: Five of the last six winners have carried 11-3 or more to victory but with jockey claims forcing a few runners under the ‘superior burden barrier’, ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR makes some appeal which might not have been the case if FIXED RATE had not been ridden by a ten pound ‘conditional’ on this occasion. OTTER MOON just manages to keep in the right half of the handicap and the Tom George raider represents the main threat to Nicky’s 9/1 chance at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame thus far (exact science), statistics which include one (6/4) winner.
Record of the course winner in the third race:
1/3—Excellent Team (good to firm)
3.30: It will be interest to see If Ghoohar is supported at a top price of 11/1 later this morning as there is plenty of speculative money in the positive queue on the exchanges this morning in and around ‘15’ which makes for interesting reading regarding Henry Daly’s raider, especially with the trainer having his horses in blinding form just now. That said, HORATIO HORNBLOWER and CAPTAIN BUCK’S are more logical choices, especially if you are looking to have a bet from a win perspective whilst organising your Placepot wager.
Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.
Record of the course winner in the fourth event:
1/1—Kap Jazz (soft)
4.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals and course winner SPIDERS BITE makes plenty of appeal here for Henry Daly and his in form team. Richard Johnson will be keen to ride another winner given that the champion jockey has ‘only’ ridden one of his last eleven mounts to winning effect, another example of how much ‘Dickie’ has also suffered with the Philip Hobbs runners generally running below par this month as stated in the analysis in the opening contest. THE DEVILS DROP deserves the favourite tag here however, and Alan King’s representative will pose a real threat to the marginal selection if producing his best form this afternoon. CEAREAL KILLER also enters the mix, albeit as definite third choice.
Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (13/8-11/10-5/6-4/6) winners.
Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:
1/5—Spiders Bite (good)
4.40: There has to be a chance that the official assessor has caught up with Lake field by now and I am offering the speculative trio of MASTER OF FINANCE, VOCALISER and ROAD TO ROME against the projected favourite in our finale.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader trailed in last of the five finishers behind horses which filled the ‘short field’ frame at odds of 7/2 & 8/1. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) & then their five year ratios + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:
5 runners—Robin Dickin (1/78 – loss of 3 points) – 3/57 – loss of 18
5—Venetia Williams (0/13) – 12/129 – loss of 75
3—Kim Bailey (8/24 +12) – 18/101 +3
3—Paul Nicholls (2/7 +2) – 7/33 – loss of 13
2—Henry Daly (4/19 – loss of 2) – 21/107 – loss of 19
2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 0/11
2—Steve Flook (0/2) – 2/35 – loss of 2
2—Nicky Henderson (4/19 –loss of 2) – 29/99 – loss of 17
2—Kerry Lee (2/6 +1) – 8/34 – slight loss
2—Donald McCain (0/6) – 3/65 – loss of 38
2—Richard Price (0/1) – 0/8
2—Alistair Ralph (1/8 – loss of 2) – 3/19 +18
2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7) – 5/39 – loss of 16
2—Dan Skelton (4/21 – loss of 2) – 22/99 – loss of 12
2—Pam Sly (1/1 +3) – 3/7 +10
+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Doncaster: £4.90 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed
Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: £1,035.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced