Placepot Pointers

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 22nd November

KEMPTON - NOVEMBER 22

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £16.10 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton: 

Leg 1 (4.10): 3 (Plead), 4 (Jive Talking) & 2 (Hairdryer)

Leg 2 (4.40): 2 (Dashing Dusty), 4 (Roman Spinner) & 2 (Give Em A Clump)

Leg 3 (5.10): 10 (Salute The Soldier) & 5 (Flavius Titus)

Leg 4 (5.40): 6 (Qaysar) & 2 (Crack On Crack On)

Leg 5 (6.10): 1 (Blue Mist) & 8 (Tanseeq)

Leg 6 (6.40): 9 (Accidental Agent), 13 (Second Thought) & 2 (Khafoo Shememi)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

4.10: With poor racing generally in place today, I thought I would offer this all weather meeting to offer a chance of a ‘get out of jail free’ card, if the NH sport earlier in the day has not worked out well for you.  Horses carrying weights of 9-1 or more have secured 21 of the 23 available toteplacepot positions, statistics which include all eight winners.  The top five horses in the betting at the time of writing hail from the superior weight trend, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be PLEAD (if getting away on terms on this occasion), JIVE TAKING and HARIDRYER who deserves a win following some half decent placed efforts of late.  SOLVEIG’S SONG won this event at 33/1 last year and there will be horses at similar prices with less chance of winning running at Kempton this evening.  Holly Doyle negates the fact that Steve Woodman’s raider is running ‘out of the handicap’, to a fashion at least.
Favourite factor: All eight favourites have finished out with the washing thus far with bookmakers laughing all the way to the bank with gold medallists having scored at prices ranging between 8/1 and 33/1.

Record of course winners in the opening event:

2/11—Tee It Up Tommo

2/11—Buckland Beau

2/16—Biotic

2/11—Solveig’s Song

 

4.40:  Jamie Osborne did not enjoy the best of years on the turf front but the popular trainer has got his act together of late, boasting recent stats of 7/25, a ratio which offers a level stake profit of 46 points during the period.  It’s significant (accordingly) that Jamie has declared three runners on the card, the first of which is DASHING DUSTY who has been gelded going into his first handicap assignment.  Others for the mix include course winner ROMAN SPINNER and GIVE EM A CLUMP who hails from the David Evans camp which has posted a winner on each of the last two days.
Favourite factor: Eight of the ten favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two (4/1 & 11/4**) winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/3—Secretario

1/2—Roman Spinner

 

5.10: The BHA are at it again by naming this as a new race because of its ‘novice status’ even though the distance, class classification and everything else is the same as it has been since the Doomsday Book was signed!  I am leaving my stats in though obviously, you can decide whether to take any notice of my findings down the years. SALUTE THE SOLDIER has been the subject of overnight support in no uncertain terms and given the good record of favourites in this event down the years (see below), Clive Cox’s Sepoy colt is the first name on the team sheet, especially with a really good Newbury debut effort under his belt.  FLAVIUS TITUS is the obvious danger given that jungle drums have only conspicuous relating to the newcomers by their absence.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

5.40: This is the second division of the previous race on the Kempton card, whereby the same stats and facts apply if you ignore the BHA ‘brief’.   I’m quick to jump on the backs of the lads/lasses in the trade press office who get the prices base over apex on occasions but their 8/13 quote about Richard Hannon’s once raced Choisir colt QAYSAR looks to be spot on after an excellent Newmarket effort on debut last month.  Nothing else is jumping off the page at the time of writing whereby I am offering CRACK ON CRACK ON as the alternative each way play in the race, despite the fact that he has plenty to find with the selection via Newmarket form.  If Clive Cox only had two runners travelling today I could have thought that his Havana Gold colt was merely keeping Salute The Soldier company in the horsebox, but that is not the case.
Favourite factor: All sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include seven successful favourites from a win perspective.  The biggest priced winner during the period had been returned at odds of 9/1 until the 2014 gold medallist sprang a surprise at 20/1.  Thankfully the race has subsequently reverted to type as three of the four favourites have won via the various divisions of the contest.

 

6.10: The same  BHA comment applies to this juvenile event, whereby I will simply let you decide who is right/wrong!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that BLUE MIST has a wide enough draw to limit enthusiasm relating to his latest 5/4 quote which is backed by exchange rates at the time of writing.  Equally however, it is nigh impossible to leave Roger Charlton Makfi gelding out of the Placepot equation.  The additional furlong here might help TANSEEQ improve on his latest Kempton seven furlong effort, albeit not much improvement would be needed to reach the frame here I suspect.
Favourite factor: All four favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (8/13 & 10/11) successful market leaders.

Record of course winners in the fifth contest:

1/1—Blue Mist

1/1--Indiscretion

 

6.40: The last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones though unfortunately on this occasion, no horses are eliminated via a defection in the ranks.  Onwards and upward by informing that three-year-olds have won three of the last six contests whereby unbeaten course winners ACCIDENTAL AGENT, SECOND THOUGHT and KHAFOO SHEMENI are entrusted with my Placepot selections to hopefully secure the dividend.  The trio is listed in marginal order of preference.
Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite in this Listed event following eleven renewals, though three of the last eight market leaders did at least secur toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Khafoo Shememi

1/1—Keystroke

1/1—Accidental Agent

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1/1—Second Thought

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Kempton card on Wednesday followed by their number of winners (where relevant) at the corresponding meeting during the last five years:

4 runners—Andrew Balding (1)

4—Richard Hannon

3—Clive Cox

3—Richard Fahey

3—William Haggas

3—Rod Millman

3—Jamie Osborne

2—George Baker (2)

2—Michael Bell

2—Roger Charlton

2—Simon Dow

2—John Gosden

2—Warren Greatrex

2—Eve Johnson Houghton

2—Richard Hughes

2—William Muir (1)

2—Neil Mulholland

2—David O’Meara

2—Hugo Palmer

2—Daniel Steele

2—James Tate

2—Roger Varian

2—Ed Walker

2—Archie Watson

2—Ian Williams

+ 42 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

101 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £189.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Hexham: Meeting abandoned

Warwick: £13.60 – 6 winners – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

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