EPSOM – APRIL 25
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £52.90 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:
Race 1: 43.1% units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 9/1 (4/1)
Race 2: 87.1% of the remaining units when through – 4/6* - 11/2 – 14/1
Race 3: 64.5% of the remaining units went through – 11/10* - 25/1 – 12/1
Race 4: 42.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 13/2 – 5/1 (4/1)
Race 5: 65.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* - 12/1 – 5/1
Race 6: 20.4% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 9/2 – 16/1 (7/2)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Epsom:
Leg 1 (2.10): 6 (Compas Scoobie), 8 (Just That Lord) & 1 (Desert Law)
Leg 2 (2.45): 1 (Crossed Baton) & 3 (James Cook)
Leg 3 (3.20): 3 (Royal Line), 8 (Golden Wolf) & 10 (Whinging Willy)
Leg 4 (3.55): 8 (Ajman King) & 9 (Contango)
Leg 5 (4.25): 5 (Mokhles) & 4 (Master Of Wine)
Leg 6 (4.55): 2 (Christopher Wood), 1 (Akvavera) & 5 (Cuban Heel)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
2.10: The top ten runners in the handicap hold the edge over the bottom four in the list according to weight trends, with the last eleven winners having carried a minimum burden of 8-11. If any rain got into the ground I could offer an each way shout for Pettochside with John Bridger having saddled a winner yesterday. A winner of 6/10 races on soft ground, the going is likely to be a little too lively for Josephine Gordon’s mount however, whereby preference on this occasion is awarded to COMPAS SCOOBIE, JUST THAT LORD (runner up last year) and DESERT LAW. That said, keep an eye on the weather at Epsom, just in case connections of Pettochside are walking around with smiles on their faces.
Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two successful (3/1 & 5/4) market leaders. The last seven winners have scored at 25/1-20/1-12/1-7/1-13/2-9/2-4/1. Nine of the last twenty horses to have claimed Placepot positions have been returned in double figures.
Record of the three course winners in the opening event:
1/3—Desert Law (good to firm)
1/1—Midnight Malibu (good)
2.45: This Epsom Derby trial has failed to produce a winner of the ‘Blue Riband’ since 1939 but the contest has offered up half decent gold medallists, with last year’s winner Cracksman being one of them. John Gosden has saddled the last three winners of the contest and in CROSSED BATTON, John has another worthy favourite in the field. For the record, John has saddled five of his last eight runners to winning effect, with two of the other three inmates snaring silver medal positions. More rain would probably aid and abet the chance of JAMES COOK who is a brother of Found who also hailed from the Aidan O’Brien yard. The same going comment is also relevant to MY LORD AND MASTER who could yet be anything.
Favourite factor: Twelve of the last twenty favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include ten winners.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/1—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)
3.20: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last seventeen renewals of the ’Great Met’, a race which used to command plenty of media space a few years ago. Vintage representative GOLDEN WOLF is nothing if not consistent with the Richard Hughes raider boasting each way claims. That said, John Gosden has (seemingly) caught the trend bug by declaring ROYAL LINE who appears to be the logical favourite in the contest, especially as John saddles just the two horses to today’s card. WHINGING WILLIE has had his limitations exposed on decent ground in the past but if the forecast showers arrive on cue, Gary Moore’s raider could improve his record of already having snared two silver medals in this event to date.
Favourite factor: Ten of the last eighteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Great Met’:
1/4—Fire Fighting (good to firm)
2/5—Lovelina (2 x good)
2/3—C’Est No Mour (2 x good)
1/14—Whinging Willie (heavy)
3.50: Four-year-olds have won thirteen of the last nineteen renewals of this Class 2 (City & Suburban) event, whilst eight of the last eleven gold medallists have carried weights of 8-13 more. With four-year-olds on a five timer on this occasion, more trainers appear to have taken notice of the trend than is usually the case and the pick of the seven relevant entries will hopefully prove to be AJMAN KING and CONTANGO. The latter named Andrew Balding representative has contested all five assignments to date with ‘soft’ having featured in the ground description thus far, whereby connections will be hoping that the disappointing weather forecast is accurate. Either way though, AJMAN KING might take the beating with Roger Varian seemingly having found a good opportunity for his progressive Lope De Vega colt. Dubai Horizon is the reserve nomination ahead of course winner Thundering Home.
Favourite factor: 13/26 market leaders of late have finished in the frame, statistics which include six winners.
Record of the three course winners in the ‘City & Surburban’:
1/2—Thundering Blue (good to soft)
1/1—Ajman King (heavy)
4.25: The market will no doubt offer the best advice here which puts you in the ‘box seat’ over yours truly. There is not much movement on the exchanges at the time of writing, though MOKHLES is unlikely to be offered up at 9/2 according to the positive queue. MASTER OF WINE is marginally preferred to KING OF THE SAND in receipt of three pounds relating to the home brigade.
Favourite factor: This is a new event on the Epsom card.
5.00: Seven of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 and with only 5/11 qualifying via the trend (fairly weak though it is), I’m inclined to look towards the top of the handicap for the winner. The trio I’m homing in on as dawn breaks over Bristol consists of CHRISTOPHER WOOD, AKVAVERA and CUBAN HILL.
Favourite factor: Six of the twelve market leaders have finished in the frame (five winners) in the Placepot finale thus far.
Record of the course winner on the Placepot finale:
1/1—Deadly Accurate (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.