KEMPTON - DECEMBER 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £21.70 (7 favourites - 4 winners - placed - 2 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Kempton:
Leg 1 (12.45): 4 (Kings Inn) & 7 (Salix)
Leg 2 (1.20): 5 (Tommy Silver) & 3 (Shantou Rock)
Leg 3 (1.55): 5 (Midnight Tune), 3 (Treackle Tart) & 4 (Jester Jet)
Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Politologue), 2 (Special Taira) & 4 (Forest Bihan)
Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Pilgrims Bay), 1 (Sir Ivan) & 5 (Holly Bush Henry)
Leg 6 (3.40): 3 (Kayf Grace), 9 (Eddiemaurice) & 10 (Chatez)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.45: My chest infection is failing to respond to a high intake of drugs this past week whereby I would ask you excuse a slightly more basic analysis than is often the case, albeit the selections are offered in just the same way as ever. The reasoning behind the horses I’m opting for might not be as thoroughly explained as has been the case down the years. Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last ten winners with the trainer opting for his Newcomer KINGS INN this time around. I’m not convinced by the form of the Alan King runners at the time of writing, whereby I will let Redicean win without being involved if that’s the way the race pans out, preferring SALIX as an option on this occasion.
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 14 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include eight winners via 13 contests. Market leaders came to the gig on a seven timer two years ago before the 11/8 favourite was pulled up with something amiss. The race reverted to type twelve months ago when the 5/4 favourite prevailed.
1.20: Five and six-year-olds have totally dominated this event and the trend will remain in place by the time I look at this race twelve months on. TOMMY SILVER handles the ground well enough and Paul Nicholls might be the trainer to take advantage of Nicky Henderson’s nigh desertion of the second day of the meeting which is little short of overwhelming, given his dominance of the fixture of late. A dual winner under soft conditions, SHANTOU ROCK is the obvious danger, hoping against hope that all five runners stand their ground with diluting the race down to a ‘win only’ contest whichwould bring a whole new perspective to our favourite wager.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have won thus far.
1.55: Nine of the eleven winners have carried weights of 10-6 or more which would normally suggest that I would swerve MIDNIGHT TUNE but such is the form of Anthony Honeyball (coupled with horse acting on the ground), that I’m including the six-year-old in my Placepot mix today. TREACKLE TART represents some value from my viewpoint, whilst JESTER JET continues to perform with plenty of enthusiasm for his in form trainer Tom Lacey.
Favourite factor: Five of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst eight market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
2.30: SPECIAL CARGO has won two of the last three renewals of this Grade 2 prize, though PILITOLOGUE should offer plenty of resistance in the contest this year. There is precious little between the pair on ratings though as a six-year-old, the latter named Paul Nicholls raider surely has some scope for further progress which (arguably) gives Paul’s hat trick seeker the edge. FOREST BIHAN could be added into the mix if you came out of yesterday’s war against the layers in black figures. Brian Ellison’s five time winner gained the easiest of his five victories to date on bad ground at Newcastle and conditions could yet have a say in the outcome of this event. Certainly if the front pair are beaten, the Placepot dividend would be well worth winning at Kempton today. Vaniteux however seems to have lost the plot of late.
Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven favourites have scored whilst seven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Record of the course winners in the ‘Desert Orchid’:
1/1—Politologue (good to soft)
2/2—Special Tiara (good & soft)
2/4—Vaniteux (2 x good to soft)
3.05: Eleven of the last thirteen winners have carried weights of 10-13 or more, whilst seven-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals with vintage representatives securing eight of the twelve available Placepot positions during the relevant period. PILGRIMS BAY and SIR IVAN are the two seven-year-olds in the field today, whereby you just know that this self-confessed ‘anorak’ will be supporting this pair, albeit adding HOLLY BUSH HENRY into the equation with Phil Middleton boasting a wonderful 7/17 ratio in recent times.
Favourite factor: Only four of the fifteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period, stats which include two clear favourites and one successful (joint) market leader from a win perspective.
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
1/2—Local Show (soft)
1/1—Pilgrims Bay (good)
3.40: Four and five-year-olds have shared eight of the ten renewals thus far, with the older raiders leading 5-3 to date. I’m going against the vintage trends on this occasion (though that cost me Black Corton as a winner yesterday which also denied yours truly the Placepot dividend) as Nicky Henderson’s soft ground hat trick winner KAYF GROUND has surely been mapped out for this contest for some considerable time. For the record, Nicky Henderson has easily saddled the most winners (nine in total) but has declared just this one runner on the card. EDDIEMAURICE is offered up as the alternative each way option at a big price having run well in this event twelve months ago. Less rain would have been ideal but even so, 20/1 is a massive price about a horse that was beaten less than two lengths last year, coming here on roughly the same terms. CHATEZ does not represent value for money from a win perspective, for all that his Placepot chance is there for all to see.
Favourite factor: The last nine market leaders (joint jollies were recorded last year) have been turned over since the first two favourites obliged.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/2—Mister Malarky (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Kempton card on Tuesday – followed by their number of winners at the corresponding card during the last six years:
5 runners—Alan King (winner at 9/1)
5—Paul Nicholls (6 winners ranging between 8/11* & 13/2)
4—Gary Moore (3 winners at 12/1, 4/1 & 5/2)
2—Tom George (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1*)
45 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Chepstow: £11.30 – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced
Wetherby: £34.60 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £103.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced