GOODWOOD - SEPTEMBER 27
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £30.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (2.10): 10 (Setting Sail) & 6 (Knightly Spirit)
Leg 2 (2.40): 1 (Billesdon Brook) & 8 (Savaanah)
Leg 3 (3.10): 2 (Me Too Nagasaki), 4 (Mr Red Clubs) & 5 (Turnpike Trip)
Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Promising Run), 8 (Billesdon Bess) & 6 (Monarchs Glen)
Leg 5 (4.20): 2 (Graceland), 5 (Notice) & 6 (St Mary’s)
Leg 6 (4.50): 6 (Island Cloud), 4 (Abiento) & 5 (Ocean Temptress)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
2.10: There are a few decent looking favourites at this meeting, the first of which is SETTING SAIL who looks to be the horse to be with on the evidence of his excellent Leicester debut effort when this step up in trip looked the call on face value. Charlie Appleby saddled the winner of this event last year and his Dubawi colt has a Racing Post Trophy entry this term, whilst the Irish 2000 Guineas has been (faintly) pencilled in for next season already. KNIGHTLY SPIRIT appears to a worthy opponent but that looks to be where the race ends in terms of a potential winner.
Favourite factor: Ten of the thirteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.
2.40: Heavy investments always have that touch of danger here at Goodwood in terms of horses handling the track and on soft ground, plenty of racegoers will keep their powder dry in such an uncompetitive looking contest. Brave souls will plunge into BILLESDON BROOK however, especially as Richard Hannon’s February foal is already a dual course and distance winner, notwithstanding a victory having been posted under soft conditions on one of those occasions. Just as Roger Varian potentially offered the only danger in the first event on that card, Roger will have expectations of another silver medal (at least) having declared his Olden Times filly SAVAANAH, the sire having won on his second start on soft ground which makes for interesting reading.
Favourite factor: This Conditions event is a new race on the Goodwood card.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
2/3—Billesdon Brook (good & soft)
3.10: But for a break of three and a half months from the track and taking a step up on trip, ME TOO NEGASAKI would look an outstanding bet for a number of reasons from my viewpoint. That said, I still believe that Jeremy Noseda’s Iffraaj colt will win, with Jeremy having dominated this corresponding meeting in recent years, his five winners all having been well backed. James Doyle rides the heavy ground winner, looking for his third winner for the trainer via just seven mounts this term. Jeremy held two entries at the meeting at the weekend though now, ME TOO NAGASAKI is his only runner. Red Clubs has long since been one of my favourite (underrated) sires and his death as a seven-year-old came as an almighty shock. His son MR RED CLUBS won his only race to date here at Goodwood, whilst he handles cut well enough to suggest that his quote of 16/1 also attracts the eye this morning. Henry Candy’s course stats this year read well (see the full list towards the foot of the column), whereby TURNPIKE TRIP is marginally preferred to Road To Dubai in completing my trio against the rest of the field.
Favourite factor: This is another new event on the Goodwood programme.
Record of the course winner in the second race:
1/3—Mr Red Clubs (good)
2/4—Road To Dubai (good firm & good to soft)
3.45: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last fifteen renewals (including six of the last ten) of this Listed event without being represented every year. Saeed Bin Suroor saddled the only vintage representative (PROMISING RUN) in the field this time around, having secured three of the last seven renewals whilst additionally snaring a silver medal with a 16/1 chance during the period. ‘Bess’ is another Billesdon raider with a chance on the card and hailing from Manduro stock on the damns side, it came as no surprise when she started winning races for fun over this trip. MONARCHS GLEN was singled out as a horse to watch by trainer John Gosden before his career had started and though John’s Frankel gelding has not won as many races to date as connections would have liked, his best form would take him close in this grade/company I’ll wager. For the record, MONARCHS GLEN was ‘short headed’ in the opening race on this corresponding card twelvemonths ago.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen favourites have prevailed, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eighteen years was returned at just 10/1 (six years ago).
Record of the course winner in the fourth race:
1/3—What About Carlo (good)
1/3—Monarchs Glen (god)
1/1—Billesdon Bess (soft)
4.20: GRACELAND lost out by the minimum margin in this event last year and with each way (bet to nothing) odds of 5/1 available with a few leading firms at the time of writing (Ladbrokes, Hills & Coral), there are worse win and place calls on the card. That said, two other each way types catch the eye, namely NOTICE and ST MARY’S in a fascination second renewal.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite missed out on a Placepot position by finishing third in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
4.50: Eight of the ten winners during the study period have carried a maximum burden of 9-1, statistics which bring in the likes of course winner ISLAND CLOUD, ABIENTO and OCEAN TEMPTRESS into the equation. For the record the trio is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last ten renewals though be warned, because two of the last four gold medallists have scored at 33/1 & 20/1. Eight of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame.
Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:
1/1—Island Cloud (good)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Goodwood card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
3 runners—Andrew Balding (4/37 – loss of 2 points)
3—Richard Hannon (5/56 – loss of 19 points)
3—Mark Johnston (6/46 +7)
2—Henry Candy (5/15 +10)
2—Richard Hughes (2/22 – loss of 11 points)
2—Alan King (2/7 – slight profit)
2—John Mackie (No previous runners here this season)
2—John Ryan (0/5)
2—David Simcock (6/29 +41)
2—Roger Varian (3/19 +1)
+ 37 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
60 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Redcar: £48.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Perth: £1,055.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced
Kempton: £5.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed