NEWCASTLE – FEBRUARY 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £1,670.70 (6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle:
Leg 1 (5.15): 5 (Prerogative) & 4 (Lough Salt)
Leg 2 (5.45): 11 (Stealth) & 9 (Night Castle)
Leg 3 (6.15): 7 (Hadley) & 4 (Gloriux)
Leg 4 (6.45): 5 (Queen Moon), 3 (Sir Jamie) & 9 (Island Song)
Leg 5 (7.15): 7 (River Rule), 2 (Gabrial The Devil) & 4 (Gorse)
Leg 6 (7.45): 7 (Fintry Flyer) & 4 (Novabridge)
Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
5.15: Despite being on offer at odds ranging between 11/10 and 13/8 with bookmakers in the dead of night, 2/1 is freely on offer about BOB MAXWELL, with the projected second favourite KEIR HARDIE failing to attract much support either. If there is any confidence about a horse in the field at the time of writing, PREROGATIVE would be the call but even then, speculative support in the positive queue on the exchanges is the order of the day early doors. LOUGH SALT is surely the only other potential winner in the field which makes this a difficult call, even from a Placepot perspective. I’m opting for the latter named pair, if only because they (at least) represent some value in the contest.
Favourite factor: Only two races from last year’s inaugural card have been carried over and this opening event is not one of them!
5.45: John Gosden complicates matters to a fashion here having declared both STEALTH and his Shamardal newcomer Mozzafiato. The two horses are offered in order of preference, especially as the latter named representative is proving easy to back in the exchanges at the time of writing. John might be thwarted on both counts however with NIGHT CASTLE looking to improve on his four length defeat at the first time of asking. That said, John posts a 62% strike rate via five winners at Newcastle this season, which complicates matter further still!
6.15: A non runner would throw a spanner in the works of this potential ‘dead eight’ event, even though three horses are seemingly all we can look to in the hope of backing a winner. Thankfully, the Placepot offers us a different slant on proceedings whereby HADLEY and GLORIUX will carry my cash in terms of the permutation for Wednesday. The front pair in the trade press betting forecast (Tommy G and Big Lachie) could hardly be classed as world-beaters and the chance is worth taking that they will finish out of the money.
Record of the course winners in the third race:
1/6—Spirit Of Zebedee
6.45: Over £184k was invested in the two A/W Placepot pools yesterday which is why the fight is up and running in terms of which companies are going to offer the bet when the Tote loses its 41 year monopoly in the Placepot this summer. Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that QUEEN MOON, SIR JAMES and ISLAND SONG will represent us to good effect tonight with around £60k up for grabs (after deductions) relating to our favourite wager.
7.15: A new stable can bring about improved form (if only temporarily for older hoses) and it would come as no surprise if RIVER RULE stepped up on previous efforts for the Tony Carroll yard. Well backed on his final run for Stuart Williams, it will be interesting to see if connections become involved in the market this morning. David O’Meara endured an awful end to 2017 by his high standards so it was interesting to note that the trainer saddled a winner ‘out east’ at the weekend which generally went unnoticed. Beaten favourite GABRIAL THE DEVIL is offered another chance accordingly alongside GORSE.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 13/8 favourite favourite finished out of the frame.
7.45: FINTRY FLYER looks a solid enough (Placepot) proposition in the finale with little to beat in an extremely low quality Class 7 event. Three time course and distance winner NOVABRIDGE might offer most resistance when the jockeys raise their whips at the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: One of the two 5/1 joint favourites secured a Placepot position last year when finished third.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newcastle card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season followed by their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:
3 runners—Tony Carroll (0/1) – 3/25 +10
3—Adrian Nicholls (0/2) – 0/4
3—Tracy Waggott (1/8 – loss of 3) – 6/82 – loss of 39
3—Alistair Whillans (3/7 +2) – 10/87 – loss of 4
2—Rebecca Bastiman (0/9) – 3/39 – loss of 7
2—Jim Goldie (7/25 +2) – 20/158 – loss of 26
2—John Gosden (5/8 +4) – 18/45 +5
2—Micky Hammond (First runners on the A/W track)
2—Shaun Harris (0/1) – 1/28 – loss of 20
2—John Quinn (0/6) – 7/121 – loss of 76
2—David Thompson (2/5 +15) – 4/53 – loss of 8
2—Ronald Thompson (0/3) – 0/14
2—Nigel Tinkler (1/8 – loss of 5) – 6/54 – loss of 15
2—Karen Tutty (1/5 +8) – 4/57 – loss of 19
+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
61 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Wolverhampton: This is a new fixture brought about by weather conditions