WINCANTON – MARCH 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £13,527.30 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 69.8% units went through – 10/1, 4/1 & 11/4*
Race 2: 35.6% of the remaining units when through – 5/2** & 33/1 (5/2**)
Race 3: 78.6% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 & 8/15*
Race 4: 1.5% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 (Win only – 4/5* unplaced)
Race 5: 28.0% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 6/1 (10/3*)
Race 6: 4.5% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 & 33/1 (4/6*)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wincanton:
Leg 1 (2.00): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 3 (Darcy Ward)
Leg 2 (2.30): 2 (Innisfree Lad), 5 (Lex Talionis) & 8 (Daytime Ahead)
Leg 3 (3.05): 6 (Hope’s Wishes), 3 (Rouergate) & 5 (She’s Gina)
Leg 4 (3.40): 6 (City Supreme) & 4 (Somchine)
Leg 5 (4.15): 4 (Sonoftheking), 1 (Achille) & 2 (Blackmill)
Leg 6 (4.45): 1 (Unioniste) & 2 (Carraig Mor)
Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes
*Apologies for the late arrival of the scheduled 7.00 service on Platform 1 this morning - several family members misbehaving on the line just outside Bristol...
2.00: This is how I started last year’s corresponding analysis’; “The following statement could hardly be classed as ‘rocket science’ but fellow ‘Potters’ will hopefully appreciate what is meant when stating that the Wincanton dividend could just as easily pay five pounds today as £5k. The ‘make up’ of the races suggest that a small dividend is the call though such is the fragility of the form of the horses on offer at the track today that literally anything could happen”. If you look above, you will determine that there was a huge dividend declared but the amazing point to consider for all people considering playing the Placepot on a regular basis, is that at the halfway stage, the Placepot was only paying £3.73 before developing into £13,537.30 three races later! The other point to consider today is the ground as rain is still raining here in Bristol which is not too far north of Wincanton. The wet stuff is on the radar to hit Wincanton from the time of writing until lunchtime. CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK will have few (if any) problems with the conditions whereby his is the first name on the team sheet ahead of DARCY WARD who won on his last start on soft going. It’s worth noting that Nick Schofield rode Run To Milan the last day he won but the popular pilot partners Darcy Ward on this occasion.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 favourite was beaten in a win only contest behind the 9/1 winner of what was the fourth race on the card twelve months ago.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
2/2—Captain Cattistock (soft & heavy)
2.30: INNISFREE LAD is the call on this ground, especially as the drop back in trip will mean that he will be staying on strongly when others of cried enough, the pick of which are nominated as LEX TALIONIS and another ‘mud merchant’ in DAYTIME AHEAD.
Favourite factor: Favourites have won three of the last seven renewals though that said, the other four gold medallists during the period were returned at priced ranging between 11/2 and 10/1.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/4—Daytime Ahead (soft & heavy)
3.05: Heavy ground course winner HOPE’S WISHES has to be the each way call with the weather misbehaving (as usual) at the time of writing. The fact that Venetia Williams ran 100/1 chance ROUERGATE at Cheltenham the other week is an indication that she should go well in this grade/company, whilst SHE’S GINA completes my trio against the other five contenders in what will hopefully remain a ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 8/15 favourite was beaten but ran well enough to secure a Placepot position.
Record of the course winner in the field:
1/1—Hope’s Wishes (heavy)
3.40: CITY SUPREME and SOMECHINE appeal as the value for money calls in this short field event with both horses able to act under the prevailing conditions. CITY SUPREME has been off for a while and patience could be rewarded connections now, whilst SOMCHINE is something of a course specialist having recorded two of his six victories here at Wincanton. It’s also worth noting that the Seamus Mullins representative has finished ‘in the three’ in 60% of his assignments to date. New readers might want to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runners races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: One of the two 5/2 joint favourites claimed a Placepot position by winning this event last year.
Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:
2/6—Somchine (soft & heavy)
4.15: You might have to hurry to obtain the respective prices of 10/1 and 25/1 about SONOFTHEKING and ACHILLE this morning, as I anticipate both horses being backed down to around the 7/1 and 16/1 marks by the time that the shops open for business later this morning. This pair offer value for money from my viewpoint, whilst adding BLACKMILL into the Placepot equation. Colin Tizzard confuses things towards the top of the market by running two horses, though The Cider Maker or Cucklington fail to appeal at the prices on offer at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 10/3 favourite was unplaced in another short field contest on the card.
Record of the course winners in the field:
1/2—Invicta Lake (good)
2/7—Cucklington (2 x soft)
4/11—Goring One (2 x soft – good – good to firm)
1/9—General Girling (heavy)
4.45: Although Distracted is a heavy ground course winner, the ten-year-old should be comfortable brushed aside in the company of UNIONISTE and CARRAIG MOR, though choosing between this pair is a tough call. The two horses are listed in order of preference only because of the heavy ground success by the first named Paul Nicholls raider, whilst pilot David Maxwell will be riding with plenty of confidence given that his last two mounts won.
Favourite factor: Last year’s 4/6 market leader finished behind horses which filled the frame at 16/1 & 33/1 which put the icing on the Placepot cake and no mistake!
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.