WETHERBY - NOVEMBER 29
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £27.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby:
Leg 1 (12.25): 3 (Doctor Bartolo) & 4 (Falcon Sun)
Leg 2 (12.55): 1 (Captain Chaos), 3 (Secrete Stream) & 4 (Three Ways)
Leg 3 (1.25): 10 (The Old Road), 4 (Jersey Bean) & 8 (Not That Fuisse)
Leg 4 (2.00): 3 (Never Up), 1 (Gino Trail) & 2 (Pain Au Chocolat)
Leg 5 (2.30): 5 (Mr Snoozy), 11 (Road To Rome) & 3 (Away For Slates)
Leg 6 (3.05): 5 (Jennifer Jupiter) & 6 (Oscar World)
Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
12.25: DOCTOR BARTOLO represents last year’s winning trainer Alan King and the facts that Alan’s juvenile (in hurdling terms) was still progressing according to official figures last time out, suggests that the Sir Prancealot gelding can go close at the first time of asking. The fact that his previous run at Newbury on soft ground was arguably his best effort to date offers confidence under today’s projected (soft) going. That said, FALCON SUN did very little wrong on his first day at school at Uttoxeter, albeit in an admittedly weak contest.
Favourite factor: Five favourites have scored since the turn of the Millennium, whilst five winners have been returned in double figures, the prices ranging between 10/1 and 22/1. Ten of the 13 market leaders in as many years have secured toteplacepot positions.
12.55: Aintree winner CAPTAIN CHAOS won in first time blinkers last time out and we can only hope that the aid has the same effect today, as his previous five efforts would have disappointed connections following a decent start to his career. Given last year’s beaten favourite at odds of 4/7, it might not be in the best interests of your health to wade in heavily however, especially with dual hurdles winner SECRETE STREAM and THREE WAYS also having been declared.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/7 market leader found one too good when securing a Placepot position in a ‘short field’ event. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.
Record of the course winners in the second race:
2/6—Secrete Stream (good & soft)
1.25: Five-year-olds have won the last seven renewals of this event, albeit four-year-olds had previously ruled the roost. Hoping that the current momentum is extended here, I’m taking THE ROAD HOME to build on his decent Cheltenham effort on his first assignment since joining Lucinda Russell’s team from across the Irish Sea. If the race reverts to four-year-old type, the chances are that the Ascot winner JERSEY BEAN and NOT THAT FUISSE will be prominent during the business end of proceedings.
Favourite factor: 16 of the last 19 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (seven winners) whilst eight of the other gold medallists started at odds of 8/1 or less. That said, the four shortest priced (odds on) favourites were beaten (including a 1/2 market leader three years ago), albeit whilst finishing in the frame.
2.00: Another ‘win only’ contest on the card which should ensure that a half decent dividend is worth winning, given that at least 75% of the units should fall by the wayside, even if both favourites oblige in the relevant events. Two of Sue Smith’s last eight runners have won, notwithstanding three silver medallists during the period whereby NEVER UP is marginally preferred to GINO TRAIL on this occasion. I’m going to wait until the end of the analysis before deciding if a third option in possible regarding my Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/4 favourite finished last of the six runners in a ‘short field’ event before last year’s 9/4 market leader found one too good when secured a Placepot position.
2.30: Course and distance winner MR SNOOZY has won on soft ground before, albeit from eight relevant assignments but having won three of his last four races, Mark Walford’s eight-year-old deserves top billing in a race which is high in numbers but short on class. Others to consider include ROAD TO ROME and AWAY FOR SLATES.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 8/13 favourite only made it to the third flight before unshipping his pilot.
Record of the course winner in the fifth event:
1/4—Mr Snoozy (good)
3.05: Four-year-olds have won five of the last six renewals of this bumper event which is confined to mares, with JENNIFER JUPITER standing out via the six relevant declarations this time around. Fergal O’Brien continues to have his runners in good form (recent ratio of 5/12) which adds icing on the cake, with connections possibly having most to fear from OSCAR WORLD who ran well enough at Cheltenham recently to suggest that she must go close in this grade/company this afternoon.
Favourite factor: Three of the last seven favourites have prevailed during which time, six winners scored at a top price of 13/2.
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card on Wednesday – followed by their stats at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:
5—Dan Skelton (2/7 – loss of 3 points)
4—Susan Corbett (0/1)
3—Phil Kirby (2/17 +5)
3—Lucinda Russell (No previous runners at Wetherby this season)
3—Oliver Sherwood (0/1)
3—Sue Smith (1/14 – loss of 9 points)
2—Maurice Barnes (0/1)
2—George Bewley (No previous runners)
2—Micky Hammond (0/13)
2—Alan King (0/5)
2—Malcolm Jefferson (1/5 – loss of 3 points)
2—Kerry Lee (0/2)
2—Donald McCain (2/4 +8)
2—Rebecca Menzies (0/1)
2—Fergal O’Brien (2/2 +15)
2—R Mike Smith (No previous runners)
2—Jamie Snowden (No previous runners)
+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card
64 declared runners
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Hereford: £89.50 – 7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced
Kempton: £92.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Wolverhampton: £6.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 placed