GOODWOOD – AUGUST 2
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2016: £47.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)
Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Goodwood:
Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Star Rider), 16 (Hawkerland), 10 (Aurora Gray) & 12 (Red Rannagh)
Leg 2 (2.25): 12 (Londinium), 3 (Sofia’s Rock) & 7 (Hochfeld)
Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Happy Like A Fool) & 4 (Havana Grey)
Leg 4 (3.35): 8 (Churchill) & 4 (Ribchester)
Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Mushahadaat), 6 (Lady Dancealot) & 7 (Lamya)
Leg 6 (4.45): 15 (White Chocolate), 8 (Titi Makfi) & 14 (Mistime)
Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes
Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page
1.50: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen renewals of this Goodwood Stakes event, notwithstanding the narrow ‘three parts’ defeat of my fancy Seaside Sizzler six years ago at 14/1. Last year’s 11/1 winner STAR RIDER was included in my ‘short list’ and Hughie Morrison’s raider will be part of my permutation again, even though he runs off a nine pound higher mark this time around. The pick of the sextet of four-year-olds will hopefully prove to be stable companion AURORA GRAY, HAWKERLAND and RED RANNAGH.
Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored during the last 19 years, whilst 13 of the 26 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period. That said, the beaten 11/8 favourite three years ago was an expensive casualty for many investors.
Records of course winners in the opening contest:
1/4—Star Rider (good to firm)
1/1—Arthur McBride (good)
1/2—October Storm (good to firm)
2.25: Nine of the last fourteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst Mark Johnston has saddled three of the last nine winners. As intimated yesterday morning, something did not seem quite right at Goodwood with Mark not represented in the opening race of the five day festival, only having four declared four runners on Tuesday. That’s the way the day panned out as bookmakers (the vast majority of) enjoyed one of the best four hours they have ever experienced at Goodwood I’ll wager. We revert to something like normal today with Mark have declared LONDINIUM, SOFIA’S ROCK and HOCHFELD for this event, with the trio all claiming win and place chances. The three inmates are listed in marginal order of preference with the trio of Charlie Appleby’s runners feared most.
Favourite fact: The 2015 market leader was the first successful favourite since the turn of the Millennium (the race reverted to type last year), whilst just three of the last eleven favourites have secured toteplacepot positions. Five of the last thirteen winners have been returned in double figures.
Records of course winners in the second race on the card:
1/2—Galactic Prince (good to firm)
3.00: ‘Team Hannon’ have secured three of the last seven winners of the ‘Molecomb’ but the stable was not represented last year and this year’s entry Denaar looks to have plenty to find via the form book. HAPPY LIKE A FOOL seemed to run into a real tartar in Heartache in the ‘Queen Mary’ at the royal meeting six weeks ago, whilst this downhill track should also play to her strengths. Wesley Ward’s Distorted Humor filly has a good chance to get her season back on track here, possibly at the chief expense of HAVANA GREY who is another juvenile that has ‘speedster’ stamped all over him. If you anticipate another outsider upsetting the party here, there would be worse options to take than MAY REMAIN I’ll wager at around the 40/1 mark.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last 20 years (level stake profit of £49.23 to one hundred pound stakes), whilst twelve market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
Records of course winners in the third contest:
1/2—May Remain (good)
3.35: Eight of the last nine favourites have won this Group 1 Sussex Stakes, whilst three-year-olds have won 13 of the last 18 renewals. It might not take a great deal of rain (plenty of showers are forecast) to change the ground which will be yet another advantage offered to bookmakers though in this race thankfully, both CHURCHILL and RIBCHESTER have shown that they can handle such conditions to winning effect in top quality races. On the best of their form I guess the Irish raider has the call, especially as Aidan’s Galileo colt represents the junior brigade who have prevailed in seven of the last nine renewals. That said, there is Churchill’s below par run at Royal Ascot the last day to take into account, whilst RIBCHESTER has constantly proved this ‘doubter’ wrong for far too long now. HERE COMES WHEN landed the biggest coup of the season for yours truly when winning at York but this is another level in no uncertain terms, albeit the moisture in the ground might improve his each way chance, given that Andrew Balding’s raider finished fourth in this event two years ago. 80/1 is certainly a big enough quote to have some fun with to minimum stakes, whilst ZELZAL represents French connections who have tasted success in big races on this soil on plenty of occasions in recent years.
Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 17 of the 20 market leaders secured toteplacepot positions in the process.
Records of course winners in the Sussex Stakes:
1/2—Lightning Spear (good to firm)
4.10: The rain could be getting well into the ground by the time flag fall for this race is reached, if the forecasters have been proved right this afternoon. That scenario could leave racegoers running for cover in more ways than one in a race that looks tough to call. There is an edge to be found to a fashion however, as Brian Meehan is the only trainer to have saddled two winners of this event during the last decade, with his Invincible Spirit filly MUSHAHADAAT having ran a fine race on debut at Newbury under good to soft conditions. LADY DANCEALOT was not far being Brian’s raider that day when doing all her best work ‘late doors’. LAMYA looks a typical Hannon improver to take into account, whilst Karl Burke’s newcomer DIZZY G could emerge as the pick of the big outsiders.
Favourite factor: Nine clear market leaders and one joint favourite (level stake profit of £425.22 to one hundred pound stakes) have prevailed during the last nineteen years. 16 of the 21 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.
4.45: Three-year-olds usually get the better of their elders in these mixed vintage events, albeit that is not the way the first running of this race worked out last year. Upwards and onward in the belief that the contest will revert to ‘vintage type’ on this occasion, nominating a ‘short list’ of the closely matched pair WHITE CHOCOLATE and TITI MAKFI, alongside EBBESBOURNE and MISTIME, who could outrun her 20/1 quote having faired reasonably well under soft conditions last year.
Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished just out of the money in fourth place.
Records of course winners in the Placepot finale:
1/1—White Chocolate (good to soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.
Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Goodwood card on Wednesday – followed by SP’s of winning trainers ta the track yesterday:
8 runners—Richard Hannon
4—David Simcock (1 winner at 50/1)
3—Michael Bell (1 winner at 20/1)
3—Eve Johnson Houghton
2—Roger Varian (1 winner at 12/1)
Trainers who saddle one runner today who had a winner here on Tuesday:
John Quinn (33/1)
Sir Michael Stoute (7/4*)
General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:
Leicester: £128.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced
Redcar: £27.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced
Sandown: £42.70 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced
Perth: £288.50 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced